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NFL

Caleb Williams

CHI

Value call

Caleb Williams has one live pick today: over 199.5 passing yards that pays $142 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
83 in 100
Predicted
238.2 passing yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 82.6% · before adjusting for past results 88.3% · the book's price implies 70.4% · gap +12.2%.

Latest Model PickFree
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
Seattle · Indoor
Mon 2 Nov, 8:20 PM ET
Caleb Williams
over 199.5 passing yards
Passing Yards (Alt) Over 199.5 -238 (1.42) · $100→$142
Value call
HIGHWins about 83 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$14.20 Odds-238
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Caleb Williams is Over 199.5 on Passing Yards (Alt).
On Passing Yards (Alt), our numbers say this bet wins about 83 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 83%, the price says 70%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Nov 4, 7:17AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: +$14,174 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
UNKNOWN
Williams completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions and rushed twice for one yard in the Bears' 34-17 win over the Seahawks on Monday night.
updated Nov 3, 5:10AM UTC · 1d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Passing Yards (Alt)88.3%82.6%70.4%1.42+17.9%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

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AI Analysis

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Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams Over 199.5 Passing Yards (Alt) (-238)

Odds correct at time of publishing

The Seattle Seahawks are playing at home against the Chicago Bears, and Caleb Williams is looking to have a big day. He's been impressive lately, and our numbers show he's a strong favorite to throw for over 199.5 passing yards. The Seahawks' defense can be tough, but Williams has a knack for making plays and finding open receivers, which boosts his chances. There is some risk since the Bears' defense can surprise you, and they might put more pressure on him than expected. However, with the way Williams has been performing, this bet feels solid. Expect him to step up and deliver in front of the home crowd.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 9 of last 10(90%)
Overall Hit Rate (25 picks) 64.0% Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards73 lines trackedNo line posted
9.5typical line · rushing yds
line range4.5–69.5model over92%tips tracked73

Caleb Williams's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 73 times, typically around a 9.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Passing Yards194 lines trackedNo line posted
149.5typical line · passing yds
line range124.5–249.5model over98%tips tracked194

Caleb Williams's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 194 times, typically around a 149.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD18 lines trackedNo line posted
33%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked18

Caleb Williams's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 18 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 33%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Quick answers:How many passing yards does Caleb Williams average?How many rushing yards does Caleb Williams average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Nov 26 Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks Passing Yards (Alt) 199.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
02 Nov 26 Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks Passing Yards (Alt) 189.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
02 Nov 26 Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks Passing Yards (Alt) 174.5 Over -476 ✓ HIT
02 Nov 26 Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
02 Nov 26 Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending
02 Nov 26 Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks Passing Yards (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Caleb Williams (CHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The model has hit at a rate of 64.0% on tracked Caleb Williams picks. The latest model pick for Caleb Williams is Over 199.5 on Passing Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.9% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks on Monday 2 November at Seattle. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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