Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Caleb Williams is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer.
On Last Touchdown Scorer, our numbers say this bet wins about 3 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 3%, the price says 6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 23, 8:02PM UTC
NFL
Caleb Williams
CHI
Caleb Williams has one live pick today: Last Touchdown Scorer Yes that pays $1,800 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Last Touchdown Scorer
Yes
+1700 (18.00) · $100→$1,800
Value call
Minnesota Vikings
@
Chicago Bears
Chicago · Indoor
Sun 20 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 365 of 558 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
DOUBTFULSeason pending
Coach Ben Johnson said Williams (hamstring) won't take part in Wednesday's practice, Courtney Cronin of ESPN reports.
updated Sep 23, 5:17PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
3 in 100
Predicted
0.2 Last Touchdown Scorer
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 2.8% · before adjusting for past results 17.0% · the book's price implies 5.6% · gap -2.7%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Last Touchdown Scorer | 17.0% | 2.8% | 5.6% | 18.00 | +11.4% |
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Caleb Williams (CHI) Yes Player last td (+1700)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Chicago Bears play Minnesota Vikings in the NFL on Sunday 20 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Caleb Williams (CHI) Yes Player last td. It was priced at +1700 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $180 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formRushing Yards12 lines trackedNo line posted 22.5typical line · rushing yds
line range17.5–22.5tips tracked12
Caleb Williams's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 12 times, typically around a 22.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Passing Yards73 lines trackedNo line posted
124.5typical line · passing yds
line range124.5–214.5model over98%tips tracked73
Caleb Williams's NFL passing yards prop has been priced 73 times, typically around a 124.5 passing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
Anytime TD7 lines trackedNo line posted
41%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked7
Caleb Williams's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 7 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 41%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Caleb Williams (CHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Caleb Williams is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.4% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears on Sunday 20 September at Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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