On October 09, 2026 our model has run Brandon Nakashima at Matteo Berrettini and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Brandon Nakashima to win the match (-145), which we rate lean confidence. Every bet below is our own number against the price on the board, in plain English.
Every bet we like in this game
Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima: Brandon Nakashima to win the match (-145)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Matteo Berrettini faces Brandon Nakashima at Shanghai Masters on Friday 9 October 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Brandon Nakashima wins the match. It was priced at -145 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.90 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. Brandon Nakashima presents solid value at 1.69 against Matteo Berrettini, supported by several key performance indicators. In their last five matches, Nakashima boasts a 60% win rate, while Berrettini's recent form shows vulnerabilities. On serve, Nakashima has a first-serve percentage of 58.6% with 72.6% of first-serve points won, while Berrettini's opponents have capitalized on his serve with a higher 65.8% first-serve points won against him. Nakashima’s second-serve points won at 55.5% also exceed Berrettini's struggles in this area. Additionally, Nakashima has a strong break point save percentage of 60.7%, significantly better than Berrettini's 72.7% against, showing resilience in pressure situations.
Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima: Matteo Berrettini +1 Game Handicap (+109)
Odds correct at time of publishing
Matteo Berrettini has been playing well lately, showing strong form on his home court. With his powerful serve and solid groundstrokes, he can definitely take on Brandon Nakashima. Betting on Berrettini with a +1 game handicap means he can lose by just one game and still win this bet.
The matchup is rated as very close, almost like a coin flip. The biggest risk is that Nakashima has been improving and can surprise anyone on a good day. Still, Berrettini's home advantage could make a big difference in this tight contest.
That is the full board for this game. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.