Here are our NFL picks for Tuesday 15 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Patrick Mahomes (KC) Under 237.5 Player pass rush yds, priced at -112 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Patrick Mahomes (KC) Under 237.5 Player pass rush yds (-112)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Kansas City Chiefs play Denver Broncos in the NFL on Tuesday 15 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Patrick Mahomes (KC) Under 237.5 Player pass rush yds. It was priced at -112 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Rashee Rice (KC) Over 5.5 Receptions (+103)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Kansas City Chiefs play Denver Broncos in the NFL on Tuesday 15 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Rashee Rice (KC) Over 5.5 Receptions. It was priced at +103 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Patrick Mahomes (KC) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-147)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Kansas City Chiefs play Denver Broncos in the NFL on Tuesday 15 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Patrick Mahomes (KC) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns. It was priced at -147 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Rashee Rice (KC) Over 5.5 Receptions (-102)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Kansas City Chiefs play Denver Broncos in the NFL on Tuesday 15 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Rashee Rice (KC) Over 5.5 Receptions. It was priced at -102 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Noah Gray (KC) Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Kansas City Chiefs play Denver Broncos in the NFL on Tuesday 15 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Noah Gray (KC) Over 9.5 Receiving Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Patrick Mahomes (KC) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-161)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Kansas City Chiefs play Denver Broncos in the NFL on Tuesday 15 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Patrick Mahomes (KC) Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns. It was priced at -161 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the model's read on today's NFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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