Here are our NFL picks for Monday 14 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Jaylen Warren (PIT) Under 2.5 Receptions, priced at +104 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Jaylen Warren (PIT) Under 2.5 Receptions (+104)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Pittsburgh Steelers play Atlanta Falcons in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Jaylen Warren (PIT) Under 2.5 Receptions. It was priced at +104 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Quentin Johnston (LAC) Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Los Angeles Chargers play Arizona Cardinals in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Quentin Johnston (LAC) Under 42.5 Receiving Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Quentin Johnston (LAC) Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Los Angeles Chargers play Arizona Cardinals in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Quentin Johnston (LAC) Under 42.5 Receiving Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Gunnar Helm (TEN) Under 2.5 Receptions (-137)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Tennessee Titans play New York Jets in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Gunnar Helm (TEN) Under 2.5 Receptions. It was priced at -137 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.30 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Kyler Murray (MIN) Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Minnesota Vikings play Green Bay Packers in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Kyler Murray (MIN) Over 23.5 Rushing Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Samaje Perine (CIN) Over 7.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

Cincinnati Bengals play Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFL on Sunday 13 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Samaje Perine (CIN) Over 7.5 Receiving Yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the model's read on today's NFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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