AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline, line, totals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface the picks where the model and the bookmakers disagree most with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

Popular Pages Today

Model v4.0 Updated Daily

Today's AFL Picks & Predictions — Free Picks for Every Game

Q: Does Bet Better guarantee AFL picks will win?

No. AFL picks are statistical predictions intended to inform betting decisions — no outcome is ever guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Free AFL picks across moneyline, line, totals and player props. Every pick shows how likely it is, the best price on offer, and the reasoning behind it — in plain English.

Every pick, graded and public → Jump to today's picks Tonight's best, every sport

Today's AFL picks

Tap a game to expand markets & reasoning

2 games coming up, and the first 2 picks are free

Best AFL bet today: Max Holmes Over 18.5 Disposals (Geelong Cats) at -400, high confidence. Fremantle Dockers play Geelong Cats in the AFL. 2 games on the board.

The one we'd back first · Geelong Cats v Fremantle Dockers

Max Holmes Over 18.5 Disposals (Geelong Cats) -400

Our confidenceHigh

Chance to win98.7%

$50 returns$62.50

The rest of the boardfull reasoning on each game below

Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE	Max Holmes Over 18.5 Disposals (Geelong Cats)	High99% chance	-400
Adelaide Crows v Brisbane LionsADE v BRI	Adelaide Crows at Brisbane Lions: Brisbane Lions Spread Q3 -5.5	High74% chance	-118
Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE	Spread 10.5	High72% chance	—
Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE	Marks 2.5	High81% chance	—
Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE	Disposals 12.5	High72% chance	—
Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE	Disposals 14.5	High70% chance	—
Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE	Goals 0.5	High75% chance	—
Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE	Disposals 16.5	High80% chance	—
Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE	Disposals 9.5	High92% chance	—
Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE	Disposals 9.5	High71% chance	—
Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE	Disposals 16.5	High79% chance	—
Geelong Cats v Fremantle DockersGEE v FRE	Disposals 15.5	High82% chance	—

High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

126 more picks on the board

AFL • GEE vs. FRE 2026-09-11 10:10 •

Geelong Cats Away

vs.

Home Fremantle Dockers

Last 5Geelong CatsWWWWWFremantle DockersLLWLW

Full preview: Geelong Cats at Fremantle Dockers →

Hide Picks

Max Holmes Over 18.5 Disposals (Geelong Cats)

Chance to win 98.7%

The price says 80.0%

Best price -400

Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 18.5 Disposals (-400)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers play Geelong Cats in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 18.5 Disposals. It was priced at -400 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Geelong Cats at Fremantle Dockers · Spread 10.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Patrick Voss Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Oisin Mullin Disposals 12.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Nathan O'Driscoll Disposals 14.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Oliver Wiltshire Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Karl Worner Disposals 16.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Connor O'Sullivan Disposals 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Patrick Voss Disposals 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Lawson Humphries Disposals 16.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Tom Atkins Disposals 15.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Matthew Johnson Disposals 14.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Lawson Humphries Kicks 11.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Josh Treacy Goals 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Shai Bolton Handballs 7.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Shai Bolton Disposals 18.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Sam De Koning Disposals 10.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Max Holmes Kicks 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Connor O'Sullivan Marks 4.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Josh Treacy Disposals 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Max Holmes Handballs 7.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Mark O'Connor Marks 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Corey Wagner Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Isaiah Dudley Disposals 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Mark O'Connor Disposals 11.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Gryan Miers Tackles 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Geelong Cats at Fremantle Dockers · Spread Q2 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Murphy Reid Marks 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Geelong Cats at Fremantle Dockers · Spread Q3 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Geelong Cats at Fremantle Dockers · Spread Q4 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Murphy Reid Kicks 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Tom Stewart Disposals 18.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Isaiah Dudley Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Karl Worner Fantasy 69.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Matthew Johnson Handballs 7.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Oliver Dempsey Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Tanner Bruhn Disposals 17.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Matthew Johnson Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Zach Guthrie Disposals 13.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Mark Blicavs Disposals 11.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Michael Frederick Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Karl Worner Marks 4.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Oscar McDonald Disposals 10.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Bailey Smith Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Geelong Cats at Fremantle Dockers · Team Total Points H1 45.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Max Holmes Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Isaiah Dudley Tackles 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Caleb Serong Marks 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Tanner Bruhn Kicks 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Max Holmes Clearances 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Shai Bolton Marks 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Gryan Miers Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Oisin Mullin Marks 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Oliver Wiltshire Disposals 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Lawson Humphries Marks 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Judd McVee Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Zach Guthrie Marks 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Bailey Smith Clearances 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Andrew Brayshaw Disposals 22.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Jeremy Cameron Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Max Holmes Tackles 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Patrick Voss Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Judd McVee Disposals 11.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Karl Worner Kicks 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Geelong Cats at Fremantle Dockers · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Tanner Bruhn Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Alex Pearce Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Corey Wagner Disposals 13.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Luke Ryan Disposals 17.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Mark Blicavs Marks 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Oliver Dempsey Disposals 17.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Andrew Brayshaw Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

AFL • ADE vs. BRI 2026-09-12 09:35 •

Adelaide Crows Away

vs.

Home Brisbane Lions

Last 5Adelaide CrowsWWLWWBrisbane LionsLWWWL

Full preview: Adelaide Crows at Brisbane Lions →

Show Picks

Adelaide Crows at Brisbane Lions: Brisbane Lions Spread Q3 -5.5

Chance to win 74.0%

The price says 54.1%

Best price -118

Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Brisbane Lions -5.5 spreads_q3 (-118)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Brisbane Lions play Adelaide Crows in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Brisbane Lions -5.5 spreads_q3. It was priced at -118 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Luke Nankervis Disposals 14.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Noah Answerth Disposals 11.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Logan Morris Disposals 11.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Sam Berry Disposals 19.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Isaac Cumming Disposals 12.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Daniel Curtin Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Conor McKenna Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Hugh McCluggage Clearances 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Sam Berry Fantasy 79.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

James Borlase Marks 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Oscar Allen Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Lachlan McAndrew Disposals 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Max Michalanney Disposals 12.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Jake Soligo Disposals 15.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Cam Rayner Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Josh Rachele Tackles 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Mark Keane Disposals 13.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Wayne Milera Disposals 21.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Conor McKenna Marks 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Callum Ah Chee Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Hugh McCluggage Handballs 7.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Daniel Curtin Disposals 15.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Cam Rayner Disposals 13.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Rory Laird Kicks 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Rory Laird Marks 4.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Jaspa Fletcher Kicks 11.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Harris Andrews Disposals 12.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Lachie Neale Tackles 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Darcy Wilmot Fantasy 69.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Kai Lohmann Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Wayne Milera Fantasy 79.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Zac Bailey Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Adelaide Crows at Brisbane Lions · Team Total Points Q1 25.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Josh Rachele Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Josh Rachele Disposals 10.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Darcy Wilmot Disposals 17.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Brayden Cook Disposals 13.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Luke Nankervis Marks 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Taylor Walker Goals 0.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Mark Keane Marks 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Darcy Wilmot Marks 4.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Adelaide Crows at Brisbane Lions · Moneyline Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Lachlan McAndrew Tackles 2.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Wayne Milera Marks 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Adelaide Crows at Brisbane Lions · Team Total Points H1 49.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Ryan Lester Marks 4.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Wayne Milera Kicks 13.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Josh Rachele Marks 1.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Ty Gallop Marks 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Izak Rankine Marks 3.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Kai Lohmann Disposals 9.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Rory Laird Disposals 18.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Ben Keays Disposals 10.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Rory Laird Fantasy 69.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Alex Neal-Bullen Disposals 13.5 Which side the model backs, and why ·

Chance to win

The price says

Bet Better Pro

You're seeing a sample. Pro unlocks every strong pick.

Free shows you every game, the market and the line, plus three picks with the reasoning. Pro adds which side the model backs on every pick, and why, with props and multis unlocked across 10+ leagues.

Every high-value pick unlocked — no gating
Top picks with full smart-betting angles
AI-powered player props & multis
High-value team prop opportunities
Proprietary models across 10+ leagues
Join a network of sharp bettors

Quick answer

What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline (winner), line (spread), totals and player props. Bet Better makes its picks with a model that works out how often each result happens, compares that to the bookmakers' prices, and lists the bets where the price looks too generous, with the reasoning written in plain English on every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming AFL game with predictions across all major markets. Expand any game to see picks ranked strongest first, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's chance the price suggests from odds. A pick means the model thinks the true chance is higher than the price suggests.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

AFL pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference

Market	What it means	Best used for
Moneyline	Which team wins the match outright.	Simple single bet or a low-risk multi leg.
Line (Spread)	Win by more than a handicap margin.	When one side is expected to dominate or the game should be close.
Totals	Over or under the combined match score.	Weather, game pace, defensive matchups and scoring trends.
Player Props	Individual stats — disposals, goals, marks.	Exploit role changes, matchup edges or recent form streaks.

How to read AFL picks in 4 steps

Find a game. Games are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that matchup.
Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the chance suggested by odds to judge value yourself.
Read the gap. A pick is stronger when the model's chance is clearly higher than the bookmaker's price suggests. The bigger that gap, the more the price is in your favour.
Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a strong pick makes a real difference to your long-run results.

Note: This page shows all model-generated AFL picks — the strongest plays are sorted to the top of each game. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.

Want every pick, graded and sized? One plan unlocks the full board — every league, every day.

Cancel anytime, one click

Data first

The model's chance, a value call, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per game estimate true outcome probabilities across every major AFL market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

AFL Picks FAQ

Quick answers

What are AFL picks?

AFL picks are model-generated predictions for AFL betting markets including moneyline, line, totals and player props. Bet Better makes its picks with a model that works out how often each result happens, compares that to the bookmakers' prices, and lists the bets where the price looks too generous, with the reasoning written in plain English on every pick.

What is the difference between AFL picks and AFL best bets?

AFL Picks shows the full set of model-generated predictions across every market for all upcoming games. The strongest plays are sorted to the top of each game's list.

What types of AFL picks are available?

The model generates picks across four major market types: moneyline (match winner), line (handicap spread), totals (over/under combined score), and player props (individual stats such as disposals and goals). Game markets and player markets are displayed together within each matchup, ranked so the strongest picks surface first.

How often are AFL picks updated?

Picks are updated daily and re-run whenever bookmaker odds move significantly. As game time approaches, market liquidity increases and line movement can change the numbers on a pick. Between rounds or when no upcoming games qualify, the page displays a notification and picks return automatically once new market data is available.

What makes something a pick here?

A pick happens when the model's number and the bookmaker's price disagree: the model works out how likely the result really is, and when that chance is clearly higher than the price gives credit for, the gap is what makes it a pick. The bigger the gap, the stronger the pick — over many bets, not as a guarantee on any single one.

Can I use AFL picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes — individual picks can be combined as legs in a multi or same game multi. However, risk compounds with every leg added, so starting with 2–3 high-confidence selections is more efficient than building large multis around marginal picks. For structured multi recommendations with a combined chance shown, use the AFL Multis page.

Does Bet Better guarantee AFL picks will win?

No. AFL picks are statistical predictions intended to help inform betting decisions — no outcome is ever guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk; even high-confidence selections lose a proportion of the time. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Want every pick, graded and sized? One plan unlocks the full board — every league, every day.

Cancel anytime, one click

Get free picks in your inbox

Daily exclusive free sports picks, sent straight to you.

You can unsubscribe at any time. By signing up you agree to our Terms and Privacy Policy.

Today's selected board

See every AFL play that cleared the model's filter today

See today's AFL picks

Planning the whole round? This round's AFL tips, every game →

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Pick your sport

Handy extras

Popular Pages Today

Today's AFL Picks & Predictions — Free Picks for Every Game

Today's AFL picks

Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 18.5 Disposals (-400)

Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Brisbane Lions -5.5 spreads_q3 (-118)

Bet Better Pro

You're seeing a sample. Pro unlocks every strong pick.

AFL pick types — what's on this page?

How to read AFL picks in 4 steps

AFL Picks FAQ

See every AFL play that cleared the model's filter today

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Pick your sport

Handy extras

One clear betat a time.

Almost there.

Included in Pro access

Popular Pages Today

Today's AFL picks

Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 18.5 Disposals (-400)

Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Brisbane Lions -5.5 spreads_q3 (-118)

Bet Better Pro

You're seeing a sample. Pro unlocks every strong pick.

AFL pick types — what's on this page?

How to read AFL picks in 4 steps

AFL Picks FAQ

Get free picks in your inbox

See every AFL play that cleared the model's filter today

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

One clear bet
at a time.