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AFL

Michael Frederick

Fremantle

Value call

Michael Frederick (Fremantle) has one live pick today: over 0.5 goals that pays $154 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
61 in 100
Predicted
1.0 goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 61.2% · before adjusting for past results 73.3% · the book's price implies 64.9% · gap -3.7%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 2:30 PM AEST
Michael Frederick
over 0.5 goals
Goals Over 0.5 -185 (1.54) · $100→$154
Value call
HIGHWins about 61 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$15.40 Odds-185
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Michael Frederick is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 61%, the price says 65%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 5:47PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals73.3%61.2%64.9%1.63+8.4%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Michael Frederick Over 0.5 Goals (-185)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Michael Frederick has been in decent form lately, and we think he can score at least one goal in the game against the Brisbane Lions. Our numbers show a good chance for him to get on the scoreboard, especially since he's been creating scoring opportunities. The main risk is that both teams have been a bit shaky in terms of clearances and contested marks, which could limit chances. Still, Frederick's ability to find space should help him break through. Betting on him to score over 0.5 goals feels like a solid choice for this match.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Michael Frederick averaged 9.6 disposals, 1.2 goals and 3.5 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.

9.6
Disposals
1.2
Goals
3.5
Marks
1.5
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Michael Frederick has cleared 9.5 disposals in 80% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.580%
o10.570%
o11.550%
o12.540%
o13.520%
o14.520%
o15.520%
o16.520%
o17.510%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o20.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Michael Frederick is averaging 10.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

10.4
Disp · Overall
1.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Michael Frederick recorded 8 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Port Adelaide8132
17 Aug 24GWS GIANTS11341
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats11151
4 Aug 24Essendon5110
27 Jul 24West Coast Eagles8353
21 Jul 24Melbourne15051
13 Jul 24Hawthorn10021
6 Jul 24Richmond8222
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans8170
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS11160
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 0.5 Over -185 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 9.5 Over -143 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -213 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Marks — — — Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Michael Frederick (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Michael Frederick is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.4% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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