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The latest Bet Better model pick for Michael Frederick is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 70%, for a model edge of +0.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:35PM UTC
AFL

Michael Frederick

Fremantle

+0.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -233 (1.43) · $100→$143
+0.7% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
70.7%
Implied Probability
69.9%
Model Edge
+0.7%
Predicted Value
0.9 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals70.7%69.9%1.42+0.7%

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AI Analysis

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Michael Frederick (Fremantle) Over 0.5 Goals (-233)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing goal scorers in the AFL, consistency is key. Michael Frederick of the Fremantle Dockers has been knocking on the door of goal-scoring opportunities, averaging 2.2 shots at goal over his last 5 away games. With a goal average of 1.2 in those matches, Frederick has shown a knack for finding the big sticks. His recent form also indicates an uptick in goal involvement, averaging 5.4 score involvements per game. Facing Melbourne, where he has maintained a goal average of 1.2 in their last encounters, Frederick is poised to capitalize. With an implied probability of nearly 70% for him to snag at least one goal, the data aligns perfectly for Frederick to split the middle and deliver for your 'Player Goals Over' bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
9.5avg disposals recent
Season best15
Disposals last 10avg 9.5 · hi 15 · lo 5
118810158511118

Michael Frederick has a disposals high of 15 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.3avg goals recent
Season best3
Goals last 10avg 1.3 · hi 3 · lo 0
1120031131

Michael Frederick has a goals high of 3 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Port Adelaide Power Goals 0.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 0.5 Over -196 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals Pending
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Michael Frederick (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Michael Frederick is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.7% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 8 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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