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The latest Bet Better model pick for Michael Frederick is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 73%, the price says 65%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 1:22PM UTC
AFL

Michael Frederick

Fremantle

Value call

Michael Frederick (Fremantle) has one live pick today: Goals Over 0.5 that pays $154 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -185 (1.54) · $100→$154
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
1.0 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 73.3% · the book's price implies 64.9% · gap +8.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals73.3%—64.9%1.36+8.4%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Michael Frederick Over 0.5 Goals (-185)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle has been on a strong run, winning 7 of their last 10 games and scoring an impressive average of 44.6 points before half-time in their recent matches. On the other hand, Brisbane Lions have also been fantastic, winning 9 of their last 10 and averaging a whopping 49.9 points before half-time. With both teams in great form, it feels like Michael Frederick will find the back of the net at least once. The bet is for Frederick to score more than 0.5 goals during the game. The biggest risk here is how close both teams are in terms of scoring ability, so it's not a guarantee. Still, with the chances looking good for Frederick, this could be a fun bet to watch unfold.

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Pick History & Track Record

Michael Frederick's lines for Sat 26 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Goals 0.5

Michael Frederick's goals line is 0.5.

Season averages (2024)

Michael Frederick averaged 9.6 disposals, 1.2 goals and 3.5 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.

9.6
Disposals
1.2
Goals
3.5
Marks
1.5
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Michael Frederick has cleared 9.5 disposals in 80% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.580%
o10.570%
o11.550%
o12.540%
o13.520%
o14.520%
o15.520%
o16.520%
o17.510%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o20.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Michael Frederick is averaging 10.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

10.4
Disp · Overall
1.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Michael Frederick recorded 8 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Port Adelaide8132
17 Aug 24GWS GIANTS11341
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats11151
4 Aug 24Essendon5110
27 Jul 24West Coast Eagles8353
21 Jul 24Melbourne15051
13 Jul 24Hawthorn10021
6 Jul 24Richmond8222
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans8170
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS11160
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -217 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 9.5 Over -143 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Marks 2.5 Over -256 ✗ MISS
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Michael Frederick (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Michael Frederick is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.4% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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