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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Michael Frederick is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 69%, for a model edge of +1.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:03PM UTC
AFL

Michael Frederick

Fremantle

+1.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -222 (1.45)
+1.7% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Port Adelaide Power
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 3:15AM
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Model Probability
70.7%
Implied Probability
69.0%
Model Edge
+1.7%
Predicted Value
0.9 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals70.7%69.0%1.42+1.7%

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AI Analysis

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Michael Frederick (Fremantle) Over 0.5 Goals (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Michael Frederick's recent form, it's clear he's been hungry in front of the sticks. In his last 5 away games, he's been averaging 0.8 goals, which is above the set line of 0.5. His accuracy sits at a solid 53.3%, showing he knows how to split the middle when the pressure is on. Plus, he's been involved in the scoring plays, with an average of 5.2 score involvements per game. Facing Port Adelaide, a team against whom he averages 2 goals in his last 5 away games, Frederick seems poised to bag one or more this match. With an implied probability of 69.0% for him to snag a goal, the odds are in our favor for Frederick to deliver in the 'Player Goals Over/Under' market.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
9.5avg disposals recent
Season best15
Disposals last 10avg 9.5 · hi 15 · lo 5
118810158511118

Michael Frederick has a disposals high of 15 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.3avg goals recent
Season best3
Goals last 10avg 1.3 · hi 3 · lo 0
1120031131

Michael Frederick has a goals high of 3 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Port Adelaide Power Goals 0.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 0.5 Over -196 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 10.5 Over -189 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Michael Frederick (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Michael Frederick is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.7% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Port Adelaide Power on Saturday 18 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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