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The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Rachele is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 90%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +4.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 6:15PM UTC
AFL

Josh Rachele

Adelaide Crows

+4.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -556 (1.18)
+4.9% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Thu 23 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
89.7%
Implied Probability
84.7%
Model Edge
+4.9%
Predicted Value
1.5 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals89.7%84.7%1.12+4.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Josh Rachele (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-556)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Josh Rachele's recent form, it's clear he's been lighting it up in front of goal, especially at home. Over his last five home games, he's been averaging a solid 2.2 goals per match, with a sharp shooting accuracy of 42.0%. Rachele's ability to get involved in scoring plays is evident, with an average of 7.2 score involvements per game. With an impressive hit rate of 9 goals in his last 10 home games and a perfect streak of 6 goals in his last 6 overall games, Rachele is in red-hot form. Facing Collingwood, a team he's historically performed well against, Rachele is poised to snag a goal and help us secure the over 0.5 goals prop bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 13.5
14avg disposals L5
Home14.2vs Richmond12.4Season best22
O 12.560%
O 13.560%
O 14.560%
O 15.560%
O 16.540%
O 17.510%
Game log vs line (O 13.5)avg 12.4 · hi 18 · lo 10
12101812131213141010

Josh Rachele has gone over 13.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 14 disposals, best 22).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.6avg goals L5
Home2vs Richmond2Season best3
O 0.590%
O 1.540%
O 2.530%
O 3.510%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 1.6 · hi 3 · lo 0
2120131321

Josh Rachele has gone over 1.5 goals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.6 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -556 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -435 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Josh Rachele (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Rachele is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.9% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows on Thursday 23 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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