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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Rachele is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 67 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 67%, implied 80%, edge +0.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 15, 9:03AM UTC
AFL

Josh Rachele

Adelaide Crows

+0.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -400 (1.25) · $100→$125
+0.2% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
80 in 100
Predicted
1.5 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 80.2% · the book's price implies 80.0% · gap +0.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals80.2%67.3%80.0%1.49+0.2%

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Josh Rachele Over 0.5 Goals (-400)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The Brisbane Lions are on fire, winning 9 of their last 10 games and dominating their matches by over 30 points on average. They also score a lot early, putting up nearly 50 points before half-time in their recent games. On the other hand, the Adelaide Crows have been solid too, winning 7 of their last 10, but they haven't been as dominant as the Lions lately. Josh Rachele is a strong pick to score at least one goal in this match. Given the way both teams have been playing, it seems likely he'll find the net. The biggest risk is that both teams have been scoring around the same amount early on, making it a close game. Still, with Brisbane's recent form, Rachele should be able to contribute to their scoring.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Josh Rachele averaged 14.1 disposals, 1.4 goals and 3.6 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

14.1
Disposals
1.4
Goals
3.6
Marks
2.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (17 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Josh Rachele recorded 10 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide10122
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs10254
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats14375
28 Jul 24Hawthorn13131
19 Jul 24Essendon12313
13 Jul 24St Kilda13114
7 Jul 24Brisbane Lions12021
29 Jun 24GWS GIANTS18242
15 Jun 24Sydney Swans10116
6 Jun 24Richmond12271
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Josh Rachele (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Rachele is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.2% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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