Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Rachele is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 90%, versus the book's implied 81%, for a model edge of +8.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 4:53PM UTC
AFL

Josh Rachele

Adelaide Crows

+8.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -435 (1.23)
+8.4% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
89.7%
Implied Probability
81.3%
Model Edge
+8.4%
Predicted Value
1.5 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals89.7%—81.3%1.12+8.4%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Josh Rachele (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-435)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Folks, if you're eyeing up a player prop bet for the upcoming clash between Sydney Swans and Adelaide Crows, keep your sights firmly locked on Josh Rachele. This young gun has been setting the field alight lately, bagging a stellar average of 1.8 goals per game in his last five away matches. With a sharp eye for the big sticks and a goal accuracy touching 68.3%, Rachele isn't just kicking goals; he's splitting the middle with style. Facing off against the Swans, who he's previously notched an average of 3 goals against in away games, the stage is set for Rachele to shine once more. Add in his impeccable hit streak of 5 games both overall and on the road, and the Over 0.5 goals line for Josh Rachele is looking like a bet that's hotter than a summer scorcher at the SCG.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs Sydney SwansO 0.5 -345+12.2% edge
90%hit L10 O 0.5
2.4avg goals L5
Away1.8vs Sydney Swans2Season best3
O 0.590%
O 1.560%
O 2.540%
O 3.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)9 / 10 hit
2120131321

Josh Rachele has gone over 0.5 goals in 9 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 2.4 goals, best 3). Current line: Over 0.5 at -345, model edge +12.2%.

DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 15.5
15.2avg disposals L5
Away14.4vs Sydney Swans12.3Season best22
O 13.570%
O 14.560%
O 15.560%
O 16.540%
O 17.510%
Game log vs line (O 15.5)avg 12.4 · hi 18 · lo 10
12101812131213141010

Josh Rachele has gone over 15.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 15.2 disposals, best 22).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
11 Jun 26 Adelaide Crows @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 11.5 Over -500 ✗ MISS
11 Jun 26 Adelaide Crows @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 12.5 Over -333 ✗ MISS
11 Jun 26 Adelaide Crows @ Western Bulldogs Disposals — — — Pending
11 Jun 26 Adelaide Crows @ Western Bulldogs Goals — — — Pending
18 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows Goals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Josh Rachele (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Rachele is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.4% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans on Friday 17 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.