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AFL

Josh Rachele

Adelaide Crows

Value call

Josh Rachele (Adelaide Crows) has one live pick today: over 1.5 tackles that pays $160 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
61 in 100
Predicted
2.6 tackles
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 60.5% · before adjusting for past results 72.5% · the book's price implies 62.5% · gap -2.0%.

Latest Model PickFree
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 7:35 PM AEST
Josh Rachele
over 1.5 tackles
Tackles Over 1.5 -167 (1.60) · $100→$160
Value call
HIGHWins about 61 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$16.00 Odds-167
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Rachele is Over 1.5 on Tackles.
On Tackles, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 61%, the price says 63%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:52PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Tackles72.5%60.5%62.5%1.65+10.0%

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Josh Rachele Over 1.5 Tackles (-167)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The Brisbane Lions face the Adelaide Crows, and both teams have some fierce players on the field. One key player to watch is Josh Rachele, who has been known to rack up tackles. Our numbers suggest he has a good chance to get over 1.5 tackles in this game at the Gabba. This pick looks promising because Rachele has been involved in plenty of plays, showing he knows how to get in the action. However, there's a concrete risk here since both teams are quite competitive and can change the flow of the game quickly. If the match turns into a high-scoring affair, Rachele might have fewer chances to make those tackles. Still, betting on him to go over 1.5 tackles seems like a solid choice with the way he has been performing lately.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Josh Rachele averaged 14.1 disposals, 1.4 goals and 3.6 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

14.1
Disposals
1.4
Goals
3.6
Marks
2.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (17 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Josh Rachele recorded 10 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide10122
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs10254
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats14375
28 Jul 24Hawthorn13131
19 Jul 24Essendon12313
13 Jul 24St Kilda13114
7 Jul 24Brisbane Lions12021
29 Jun 24GWS GIANTS18242
15 Jun 24Sydney Swans10116
6 Jun 24Richmond12271
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Tackles 1.5 Over -167 ✗ MISS
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 10.5 Over -244 ✗ MISS
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Goals 0.5 Over -345 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Marks — — — Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Tackles — — — Pending

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About This Player

Josh Rachele (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Rachele is Over 1.5 on Tackles. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.0% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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