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AFL

Jaspa Fletcher

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Jaspa Fletcher (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: over 16.5 disposals that pays $186 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
48 in 100
Predicted
19.8 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 48.2% · before adjusting for past results 73.0% · the book's price implies 53.8% · gap -5.5%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 2:30 PM AEST
Jaspa Fletcher
over 16.5 disposals
Disposals Over 16.5 -116 (1.86) · $100→$186
Value call
LEANWins about 48 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.60 Odds-116
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jaspa Fletcher is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 48 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 48%, the price says 54%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:06PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.0%48.2%53.8%1.97+19.2%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Jaspa Fletcher Over 16.5 Disposals (-116)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers face off against Brisbane Lions, and it looks like Jaspa Fletcher could shine in this matchup. He has been getting plenty of disposals lately, and our numbers suggest he has a good chance to get over 16.5 in this game. The Dockers will try to control the ball, which means Fletcher might have more opportunities to rack up those disposals. One thing to keep in mind is that both teams are pretty evenly matched, and that could make it tough for any single player to stand out. Still, Fletcher has shown he can handle the pressure and step up when needed. With the game at the MCG, it could be an exciting chance for him to show off his skills and hit that target.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Jaspa Fletcher averaged 14.6 disposals, 0.2 goals and 4.9 marks per game across 27 games in 2024.

14.6
Disposals
0.2
Goals
4.9
Marks
1.9
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Jaspa Fletcher has cleared 11.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o11.5100%
o12.5100%
o13.5100%
o15.580%
o16.560%
o18.550%
o19.550%
o20.550%
o22.520%
o23.510%
o25.510%
o26.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Jaspa Fletcher is averaging 18.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

18.2
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Jaspa Fletcher recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans18071
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats17071
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS13131
7 Sep 24Carlton9031
24 Aug 24Essendon15051
17 Aug 24Collingwood19046
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS12041
4 Aug 24St Kilda19174
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS13023
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans10040
Quick answers:How many disposals does Jaspa Fletcher average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 16.5 Over -116 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 15.5 Over -172 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Kicks 11.5 Over -137 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Kicks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jaspa Fletcher (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jaspa Fletcher is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.2% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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