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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jaspa Fletcher is Over 11.5 on Kicks.
On Kicks, our numbers say this bet wins about 59 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 59%, implied 66%, edge +4.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 15, 6:29AM UTC
AFL

Jaspa Fletcher

Brisbane Lions

+4.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Kicks Over 11.5 -196 (1.51) · $100→$151
+4.1% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
13.8 Kicks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.4% · the book's price implies 66.2% · gap +4.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Kicks70.4%58.8%66.2%1.70+4.1%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Jaspa Fletcher Over 11.5 Kicks (-196)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Brisbane Lions are riding high with nine wins in their last ten games, and they've been scoring big, averaging over 31 points more than their opponents lately. Jaspa Fletcher has been getting a lot of kicks, and with the Lions expected to keep the pressure on, he should have plenty of chances to add to his tally. While the Adelaide Crows have also been performing well, winning seven out of ten, they haven't shown quite the same scoring power as Brisbane. The most concrete risk is that Fletcher could struggle to find space against a solid Crows defense. Still, with the way Brisbane has been playing, betting on Fletcher to get over 11.5 kicks seems promising.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Jaspa Fletcher averaged 14.6 disposals, 0.2 goals and 4.9 marks per game across 27 games in 2024.

14.6
Disposals
0.2
Goals
4.9
Marks
1.9
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Jaspa Fletcher has cleared 12.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o12.5100%
o13.5100%
o15.590%
o16.570%
o18.560%
o19.560%
o21.550%
o23.510%
o24.510%
o26.510%
o27.50%
o29.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Jaspa Fletcher is averaging 18.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

18.4
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Jaspa Fletcher recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans18071
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats17071
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS13131
7 Sep 24Carlton9031
24 Aug 24Essendon15051
17 Aug 24Collingwood19046
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS12041
4 Aug 24St Kilda19174
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS13023
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans10040
Quick answers:How many disposals does Jaspa Fletcher average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Kicks 11.5 Over -196 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 14.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 15.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Kicks — — — Pending
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Kicks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jaspa Fletcher (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jaspa Fletcher is Over 11.5 on Kicks. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.1% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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