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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jaspa Fletcher is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 67 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 67%, implied 63%, edge +3.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 7:50PM UTC
AFL

Jaspa Fletcher

Brisbane Lions

+3.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 19.5 -172 (1.58) · $100→$158
+3.9% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 13 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
67 in 100
Predicted
21.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 67.2% · the book's price implies 63.3% · gap +3.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals67.2%63.3%1.49+3.9%

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AI Analysis

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Jaspa Fletcher (Brisbane Lions) Over 19.5 Disposals (-172)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jaspa Fletcher's recent form, especially at home where he averages 20.4 disposals over the last five games, indicates he's poised to surpass the 19.5 disposal line against Gold Coast. With a solid average of 5.6 contested possessions and 12.2 kicks per game in his last five home matches, Fletcher consistently contributes across various key stats. His high disposalefficiency at 76.4% further supports his ability to maintain possession effectively. Additionally, his strong hit rates with an 8-game streak and 3-game streak at home suggest he's in top form to continue exceeding his disposal line. Considering his past performance and the model's prediction of 21.7 disposals, betting on Fletcher to go over 19.5 disposals seems like a favorable choice for this fixture.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jaspa Fletcher averaged 14.6 disposals, 0.2 goals and 4.9 marks per game across 27 games in 2024.

14.6
Disposals
0.2
Goals
4.9
Marks
1.9
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Jaspa Fletcher recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans18071
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats17071
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS13131
7 Sep 24Carlton9031
24 Aug 24Essendon15051
17 Aug 24Collingwood19046
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS12041
4 Aug 24St Kilda19174
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS13023
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans10040
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jaspa Fletcher (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jaspa Fletcher is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.9% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 13 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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