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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jaspa Fletcher is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 60%, the price says 73%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 6, 12:19PM UTC
AFL

Jaspa Fletcher

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Jaspa Fletcher (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 14.5 that pays $137 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -270 (1.37) · $100→$137
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
60 in 100
Predicted
19.8 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 59.7% · before adjusting for past results 83.8% · the book's price implies 73.0% · gap -13.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals83.8%59.7%73.0%1.67+10.8%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Jaspa Fletcher Over 14.5 Disposals (-270)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers face off against Brisbane Lions, and Jaspa Fletcher has shown he can really shine in this matchup. He's been getting more than 14.5 disposals in recent games, and our stats show he usually steps up, especially in crucial moments. The stats say he's likely to get plenty of touches, so this bet looks solid. The main risk is that both teams are pretty close in skill, which could mean a tougher game for Fletcher. Still, with his recent performances and the way he tackles the game, I think he can break through and hit that number. This pick feels strong, but remember, there are no guarantees in sports.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Jaspa Fletcher averaged 14.6 disposals, 0.2 goals and 4.9 marks per game across 27 games in 2024.

14.6
Disposals
0.2
Goals
4.9
Marks
1.9
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Jaspa Fletcher has cleared 11.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o11.5100%
o12.5100%
o13.5100%
o15.580%
o16.560%
o18.550%
o19.550%
o20.550%
o22.520%
o23.510%
o25.510%
o26.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Jaspa Fletcher is averaging 18.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

18.2
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Jaspa Fletcher recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans18071
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats17071
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS13131
7 Sep 24Carlton9031
24 Aug 24Essendon15051
17 Aug 24Collingwood19046
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS12041
4 Aug 24St Kilda19174
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS13023
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans10040
Quick answers:How many disposals does Jaspa Fletcher average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 14.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 16.5 Over -119 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 15.5 Over -175 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Kicks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jaspa Fletcher (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jaspa Fletcher is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.8% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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