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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jaspa Fletcher is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 67%, versus the book's implied 63%, for a model edge of +3.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 9:55AM UTC
AFL

Jaspa Fletcher

Brisbane Lions

+3.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 19.5 -172 (1.58)
+3.9% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 13 Sep, 9:35AM
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Model Probability
67.2%
Implied Probability
63.3%
Model Edge
+3.9%
Predicted Value
21.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals67.2%63.3%1.49+3.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Jaspa Fletcher (Brisbane Lions) Over 19.5 Disposals (-172)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jaspa Fletcher's recent form, especially at home where he averages 20.4 disposals over the last five games, indicates he's poised to surpass the 19.5 disposal line against Gold Coast. With a solid average of 5.6 contested possessions and 12.2 kicks per game in his last five home matches, Fletcher consistently contributes across various key stats. His high disposalefficiency at 76.4% further supports his ability to maintain possession effectively. Additionally, his strong hit rates with an 8-game streak and 3-game streak at home suggest he's in top form to continue exceeding his disposal line. Considering his past performance and the model's prediction of 21.7 disposals, betting on Fletcher to go over 19.5 disposals seems like a favorable choice for this fixture.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 19.5
20avg disposals L5
Away20vs West Coast Eagles14.3Season best19
O 17.570%
O 18.560%
O 19.550%
O 20.550%
O 21.530%
O 22.520%
Game log vs line (O 19.5)avg 14.5 · hi 19 · lo 9
1013191219159131718

Jaspa Fletcher has gone over 19.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 20 disposals, best 19).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jaspa Fletcher (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jaspa Fletcher is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.9% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 13 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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