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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Treacy is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 78%, versus the book's implied 76%, for a model edge of +2.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 5:17PM UTC
AFL

Josh Treacy

Fremantle

+2.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 1.5 -313 (1.32) · $100→$132
+2.0% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
77.7%
Implied Probability
75.8%
Model Edge
+2.0%
Predicted Value
2.1 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals77.7%75.8%1.29+2.0%

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AI Analysis

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Josh Treacy (Fremantle) Over 1.5 Goals (-312)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag goals, Josh Treacy is the man to watch in the upcoming clash against Melbourne at the MCG. In his last five away games, Treacy has been a scoring machine, averaging an impressive 3 goals per game. His accuracy in front of the big sticks has been solid at 73.3%, showcasing his ability to convert opportunities into goals. With an average of 4.2 shots at goal per game in away fixtures, he's consistently putting himself in scoring positions. Against Melbourne specifically, he's maintained a strong average of 2 goals per game in their away matchups. Treacy's current form is red hot, hitting the scoreboard in 6 consecutive away games. With a model predicting him to score 2.1 goals and the line set at 1.5, backing Treacy to go over 1.5 goals is a smart play with a high likelihood of hitting paydirt.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
12.8avg disposals recent
Season best18
Disposals last 10avg 12.8 · hi 18 · lo 9
121891213161018119

Josh Treacy has a disposals high of 18 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
2.5avg goals recent
Season best5
Goals last 10avg 2.5 · hi 5 · lo 1
1322251333

Josh Treacy has a goals high of 5 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Goals 1.5 Over -313 ✓ HIT
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 1.5 Over -323 ✗ MISS
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 1.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals Pending
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Josh Treacy (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Treacy is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.0% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 8 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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