Josh Treacy (Fremantle) Over 1.5 Goals (-286)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Josh Treacy is in the kind of form that makes 1.5 goals look like a modest ask. The model projects him at 2.1 goals — a 3.6% edge over the implied 74.1% probability baked into the $1.35 — and the underlying numbers justify that confidence. At home over his last five, Treacy is averaging 4.0 shots at goal and 3.6 marks inside 50, converting at 42.7% — enough volume to clear this line comfortably even on an off night with the boot. Critically, he's hit this exact line in all five of his last five home games, and against Sydney specifically, he's averaging 1.8 goals at home and 2.0 overall across his last five matchups. Back that with a 9/10 hit rate over his last ten games and the case is hard to argue with. Optus Stadium, home crowd, familiar surroundings — the conditions suit him.