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The latest Bet Better model pick for Josh Treacy is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 70 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 70%, the price says 61%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 8:05PM UTC
AFL

Josh Treacy

Fremantle

Value call

Josh Treacy (Fremantle) has one live pick today: Goals Over 1.5 that pays $164 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 1.5 -156 (1.64) · $100→$164
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
2.0 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 70.1% · the book's price implies 61.0% · gap +9.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals70.1%—61.0%1.43+9.2%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Josh Treacy Over 1.5 Goals (-156)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle has been strong lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games and scoring an impressive average of nearly 45 points before half-time. On the other hand, Brisbane Lions have also been excellent, winning 9 of their last 10 and averaging nearly 50 points in the same time frame. This matchup should be a high-scoring affair, and I believe Josh Treacy can find the net more than once. With both teams scoring so well, betting on Treacy to kick over 1.5 goals seems like a solid choice. However, the challenge lies in how close both teams are in performance; either side could shine on the day. Overall, the numbers suggest Treacy has a good chance to score, making this a bet worth considering.

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Pick History & Track Record

Josh Treacy's lines for Sat 26 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Goals 1.5
How many disposals does Josh Treacy average?

Josh Treacy's goals line is 1.5.

Season averages (2024)

Josh Treacy averaged 12.1 disposals, 2.3 goals and 6.1 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.

12.1
Disposals
2.3
Goals
6.1
Marks
2.2
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Josh Treacy has cleared 9.5 disposals in 60% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.560%
o10.560%
o11.560%
o12.550%
o13.530%
o14.510%
o15.510%
o16.510%
o17.510%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o20.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Josh Treacy is averaging 9.2 disposals per game over his last 5, including his recent form against Brisbane Lions.

9.2
Disp · Overall
12.8
Disp · vs Brisbane Lions
1.2
Goals · Overall
2.0
Goals · vs Brisbane Lions

Recent game log

In his most recent game (4 Aug 24 vs Essendon), Josh Treacy recorded 9 disposals and 3 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
4 Aug 24Essendon9351
27 Jul 24West Coast Eagles11351
21 Jul 24Melbourne183122
13 Jul 24Hawthorn10153
6 Jul 24Richmond16590
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans13241
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS12272
15 Jun 24Western Bulldogs9265
2 Jun 24Melbourne183111
24 May 24Collingwood12132
Quick answers:How many disposals does Josh Treacy average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 9.5 Over -161 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Goals 1.5 Over -313 ✓ HIT
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 1.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Goals — — — Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Josh Treacy (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Josh Treacy is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.2% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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