Josh Treacy (Fremantle) Over 1.5 Goals (-130)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Josh Treacy is a genuine play here at 1.77. The model projects him at exactly 2 goals — half a goal clear of the 1.5 line — generating a 13.6% edge against the implied probability of 56.5%. That's a meaningful gap worth acting on.
The underlying numbers back it up. At home over his last five, Treacy is averaging 3.4 shots at goal with a 52% accuracy rate, translating to 1.4 goals per game — and crucially, he's cleared 1.5 in 8 of his last 9 home outings, a hit rate of 89%. Against Brisbane specifically, his home average lifts to 1.8 goals, with an overall head-to-head average of 2.0. His 2.2 marks inside 50 and 5 score involvements per home game paint the picture of a forward who gets into the contest regularly. The matchup history and home form combine to make this a well-supported edge.