Josh Treacy (Fremantle) Over 1.5 Goals (-303)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Josh Treacy has been an absolute goal-kicking machine at home, and the numbers make a compelling case to back him over 1.5 at Optus Stadium. His L5 home games average of 2.0 goals from 4.4 shots at goal tells you he's consistently finding the big sticks in front of his home crowd, and that 7-from-7 hit rate in home games is the kind of streak that demands respect. The model projects 2.1 goals — sitting comfortably above the 1.5 line — with a 2.3% edge against the implied probability of 75.2%.
The one note of caution is his home goal accuracy of 38.9% against Adelaide specifically, compared to his broader 52.9% overall clip, and his L5 vs Adelaide home average of just 1.5. Still, with 2.8 marks inside 50 and 5.8 score involvements at home, Treacy generates enough opportunity that the model's projection holds genuine merit.