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AFL

Geelong Cats

Model-graded picks, player props and the edge on every market — with the full result history below.

Every pick graded — see verified results
Next Game: vs St Kilda Saints (Home) Thu 16 Jul, 9:30AM GMHBA Stadium, Geelong · Outdoor
Model updated Jul 16, 8:08AM UTC
Answer
The Geelong Cats model is leaning the under in the Total Points Q1 market vs St Kilda Saints.
8 tracked player props · exact probability, edge and line unlock with a subscription.

Today's Game Pick

Model edge
Total Points Q1
Under 46.5
Odds: -118
Model prob: 60.6%
+6.5%
Free pick — today's headline game edge

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Today's Player Props

Edge in green
PlayerStatModel output
Zach Guthrie Disposals Line, odds & edge locked
Lawson Humphries Disposals Line, odds & edge locked
Shaun Mannagh Goals Line, odds & edge locked
Oisin Mullin Disposals Line, odds & edge locked
Patrick Dangerfield Disposals Line, odds & edge locked
Jack Martin Goals Line, odds & edge locked

Every player prop for this team — line, odds, pick and edge — is ready for subscribers. Today's headline game pick above is free.

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Calibrated Edge — Game Markets

Calibrated vs fair
MarketModel output
Total PointsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Spread Q3Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Spread Q2Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Spread Q4Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Head to HeadProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Team Total Points H1Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points H2Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points H1Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points Q3Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points Q1Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Team Total Points Q1Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points Q2Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points Q4Probability, fair odds & edge locked

Full model-edge table — 13 game markets for this team with exact probability, fair odds and edge — is ready for subscribers.

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Availability

Roster status
Player availability is not tracked for AFL. No injury/availability feed is available for this competition — absence of a listing here does not mean every player is fit.

Model Performance History

All results →
0
Total Picks
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Hit Rate
DateOpponentMarketPickResult

Betting angles

13 markets live
Moneylinevs St Kilda Saints+149+7.8% edge
+0.0avg margin (L5)
Model pickSt Kilda Saints to winPF/G86.2PA/G86.2L51-4

Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints on Jul 16 - Moneyline: the model's pick is St Kilda Saints to win at +149, a 48% model win % (+7.8% edge). Geelong Cats are averaging 86.2 points for and 86.2 against over their last five games.

Total pointsvs St Kilda Saints182.5 -114+12.9% edge
66%under %
170.7proj. total pts
Model pickUnder 182.5PF/G86.2PA/G86.2L51-4

Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints on Jul 16 - Total points: the model's pick is Under 182.5 at -114, a 66% under % (+12.9% edge). Geelong Cats are averaging 86.2 points for and 86.2 against over their last five games.

Team total 1st halfvs St Kilda Saints47.5 -110+7.6% edge
60%under %
43.3proj. team pts (half)
Model pickGeelong Cats Under 47.5PF/G86.2PA/G86.2L51-4

Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints on Jul 16 - Team total 1st half: the model's pick is Geelong Cats Under 47.5 at -110, a 60% under % (+7.6% edge). Geelong Cats are averaging 86.2 points for and 86.2 against over their last five games.

Team total Q1vs St Kilda Saints24.5 -119+5.3% edge
60%under %
21.7proj. team pts (quarter)
Model pickGeelong Cats Under 24.5PF/G86.2PA/G86.2L51-4

Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints on Jul 16 - Team total Q1: the model's pick is Geelong Cats Under 24.5 at -119, a 60% under % (+5.3% edge). Geelong Cats are averaging 86.2 points for and 86.2 against over their last five games.

Total 1st halfvs St Kilda Saints90.5 -112+7.2% edge
60%under %
85.3proj. half pts
Model pickUnder 90.5PF/G86.2PA/G86.2L51-4

Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints on Jul 16 - Total 1st half: the model's pick is Under 90.5 at -112, a 60% under % (+7.2% edge). Geelong Cats are averaging 86.2 points for and 86.2 against over their last five games.

Total 2nd halfvs St Kilda Saints91.5 -120+7.4% edge
62%under %
85.3proj. half pts
Model pickUnder 91.5PF/G86.2PA/G86.2L51-4

Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints on Jul 16 - Total 2nd half: the model's pick is Under 91.5 at -120, a 62% under % (+7.4% edge). Geelong Cats are averaging 86.2 points for and 86.2 against over their last five games.

Total Q1vs St Kilda Saints46.5 -118+6.5% edge
61%under %
42.7proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 46.5PF/G86.2PA/G86.2L51-4

Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints on Jul 16 - Total Q1: the model's pick is Under 46.5 at -118, a 61% under % (+6.5% edge). Geelong Cats are averaging 86.2 points for and 86.2 against over their last five games.

Total Q2vs St Kilda Saints44.5 -116+1.3% edge
55%under %
42.7proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 44.5PF/G86.2PA/G86.2L51-4

Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints on Jul 16 - Total Q2: the model's pick is Under 44.5 at -116, a 55% under % (+1.3% edge). Geelong Cats are averaging 86.2 points for and 86.2 against over their last five games.

Total Q3vs St Kilda Saints46.5 -115+7.1% edge
61%under %
42.7proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 46.5PF/G86.2PA/G86.2L51-4

Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints on Jul 16 - Total Q3: the model's pick is Under 46.5 at -115, a 61% under % (+7.1% edge). Geelong Cats are averaging 86.2 points for and 86.2 against over their last five games.

Total Q4vs St Kilda Saints44.5 -120+0.5% edge
55%under %
42.7proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 44.5PF/G86.2PA/G86.2L51-4

Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints on Jul 16 - Total Q4: the model's pick is Under 44.5 at -120, a 55% under % (+0.5% edge). Geelong Cats are averaging 86.2 points for and 86.2 against over their last five games.

Line Q2vs St Kilda Saints-2.5 -120+7.8% edge
62%cover %
+0.0avg margin (L5)
Model pickGeelong Cats -2.5PF/G86.2PA/G86.2L51-4

Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints on Jul 16 - Line Q2: the model's pick is Geelong Cats -2.5 at -120, a 62% cover % (+7.8% edge). Geelong Cats are averaging 86.2 points for and 86.2 against over their last five games.

Line Q3vs St Kilda Saints-3.5 -112+11.7% edge
65%cover %
+0.0avg margin (L5)
Model pickGeelong Cats -3.5PF/G86.2PA/G86.2L51-4

Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints on Jul 16 - Line Q3: the model's pick is Geelong Cats -3.5 at -112, a 65% cover % (+11.7% edge). Geelong Cats are averaging 86.2 points for and 86.2 against over their last five games.

Line Q4vs St Kilda Saints-2.5 -118+8.4% edge
62%cover %
+0.0avg margin (L5)
Model pickGeelong Cats -2.5PF/G86.2PA/G86.2L51-4

Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints on Jul 16 - Line Q4: the model's pick is Geelong Cats -2.5 at -118, a 62% cover % (+8.4% edge). Geelong Cats are averaging 86.2 points for and 86.2 against over their last five games.

For & against (last 5 games)

Geelong Cats are averaging 86.2 points for and 86.2 points against over their last 5 games, holding a 1-4 record.

1-4
Last 5
86.2
Points For / G
86.2
Points Against / G
+0.0
Margin / G
12.8
Goals / G
9.4
Behinds / G
57.4
Inside 50s / G

About This Team

Geelong Cats are tracked by the Bet Better model across AFL games. Their next game is against St Kilda Saints on Thursday 16 July at GMHBA Stadium. The model currently tracks 8 player props for Geelong Cats in this game. Use the data above to inform your AFL betting decisions for Geelong Cats.