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AFL

Geelong Cats

Model-graded picks, player props and the edge on every market — with the full result history below.

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Next Game: vs Essendon Bombers (Home) Sat 8 Aug, 6:35AM GMHBA Stadium, Geelong · Outdoor
Model updated Aug 5, 12:13PM UTC
Answer
The Geelong Cats model is leaning the under in the Total Points market vs Essendon Bombers.
2 tracked player props · exact probability, edge and line unlock with a subscription.

Today's Game Pick

Model edge
Total Points
Under 183.5
Odds: -112
Model prob: 68.1%
+15.2%
Free pick — today's headline game edge

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Today's Player Props

Edge in green
PlayerStatModel output
Lawson Humphries Disposals Line, odds & edge locked
Zach Guthrie Disposals Line, odds & edge locked

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Calibrated Edge — Game Markets

Calibrated vs fair
MarketModel output
Team Total Points Q1Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total PointsProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points H1Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points Q1Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points H2Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points Q3Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Head to HeadProbability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points Q4Probability, fair odds & edge locked
Total Points Q2Probability, fair odds & edge locked

Full model-edge table — 9 game markets for this team with exact probability, fair odds and edge — is ready for subscribers.

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Availability

Roster status
Player availability is not tracked for AFL. No injury/availability feed is available for this competition — absence of a listing here does not mean every player is fit.

Weather & Venue Context

Conditions
Typical conditions recorded at this team's matches:
Mostly Sunny
42% of games
Rain
26% of games
Overcast
18% of games
Mostly Clear
5% of games
Sunny
5% of games
Clear Night
3% of games
Average 17°C at these grounds
Historical ground conditions (not a live forecast).

Model Performance History

All results →
Recent form: won 5 of last 5 settled picks (100%).
5
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateOpponentMarketPickResult
30 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies Total Points Q1 Under 43.5 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies Total Points H2 Under 85.5 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies Total Points H2 Under 87.5 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies Total Points H1 Under 86.5 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies Total Points H1 Under 85.5 ✓ HIT

Betting angles

7 markets live
Total pointsvs Essendon Bombers183.5 -112
68%under %
170.1proj. total pts
Model pickUnder 183.5PF/G96.2PA/G87.8L50-5

Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers on Aug 8 - Total points: the model's pick is Under 183.5 at -112, a 68% under % (HIGH). Geelong Cats are averaging 96.2 points for and 87.8 against over their last five games.

Total 1st halfvs Essendon Bombers91.5 -112
63%under %
85.0proj. half pts
Model pickUnder 91.5PF/G96.2PA/G87.8L50-5

Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers on Aug 8 - Total 1st half: the model's pick is Under 91.5 at -112, a 63% under % (LEAN). Geelong Cats are averaging 96.2 points for and 87.8 against over their last five games.

Total 2nd halfvs Essendon Bombers91.5 -116
63%under %
85.0proj. half pts
Model pickUnder 91.5PF/G96.2PA/G87.8L50-5

Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers on Aug 8 - Total 2nd half: the model's pick is Under 91.5 at -116, a 63% under % (LEAN). Geelong Cats are averaging 96.2 points for and 87.8 against over their last five games.

Total Q1vs Essendon Bombers46.5 -109
61%under %
42.5proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 46.5PF/G96.2PA/G87.8L50-5

Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers on Aug 8 - Total Q1: the model's pick is Under 46.5 at -109, a 61% under % (LEAN). Geelong Cats are averaging 96.2 points for and 87.8 against over their last five games.

Total Q2vs Essendon Bombers44.5 -118
56%under %
42.5proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 44.5PF/G96.2PA/G87.8L50-5

Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers on Aug 8 - Total Q2: the model's pick is Under 44.5 at -118, a 56% under % (LEAN). Geelong Cats are averaging 96.2 points for and 87.8 against over their last five games.

Total Q3vs Essendon Bombers46.5 -114
61%under %
42.5proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 46.5PF/G96.2PA/G87.8L50-5

Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers on Aug 8 - Total Q3: the model's pick is Under 46.5 at -114, a 61% under % (LEAN). Geelong Cats are averaging 96.2 points for and 87.8 against over their last five games.

Total Q4vs Essendon Bombers44.5 -114
56%under %
42.5proj. quarter pts
Model pickUnder 44.5PF/G96.2PA/G87.8L50-5

Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers on Aug 8 - Total Q4: the model's pick is Under 44.5 at -114, a 56% under % (LEAN). Geelong Cats are averaging 96.2 points for and 87.8 against over their last five games.

For & against (last 5 games)

Geelong Cats are averaging 96.2 points for and 87.8 points against over their last 5 games, holding a 0-5 record.

0-5
Last 5
96.2
Points For / G
87.8
Points Against / G
+8.4
Margin / G
14.6
Goals / G
8.6
Behinds / G
63.8
Inside 50s / G

About This Team

Geelong Cats are tracked by the Bet Better model across AFL games. Their next game is against Essendon Bombers on Saturday 8 August at GMHBA Stadium. The model currently tracks 2 player props for Geelong Cats in this game. Use the data above to inform your AFL betting decisions for Geelong Cats.

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