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AFL

Lachie Neale

Brisbane Lions

+18.5% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Under 30.5 -122 (1.82)
+18.5% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Sat 28 Mar, 1:35AM
Model Probability
73.4%
Implied Probability
54.9%
Model Edge
+18.5%
Predicted Value
27.4 Disposals

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions) Under 30.5 Disposals (-122)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Lachie Neale and the under on 30.5 disposals against St Kilda, the numbers paint a clear picture. Over his last five away games, Neale has averaged 29.8 disposals, just under the line. While he's been solid, his recent form doesn't scream "over." His disposal efficiency has been decent at 70.2%, but facing St Kilda, who have held him to an average of 27.2 disposals in their matchups, might prove challenging. With his recent averages falling slightly short of the line and St Kilda historically limiting his output, backing Neale to stay under 30.5 disposals seems like a smart play for this clash at Marvel Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (9 picks) 66.7% (6/9)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 30.5 Under -122 ✓ HIT
14 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals 22.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
14 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals 20.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
14 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
14 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
14 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 9 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 66.7% (6/9). The latest model pick for Lachie Neale is Under 30.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.5% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs St Kilda Saints on Saturday 28 March at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.