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The latest Bet Better model pick for Lachie Neale is Over 11.5 on Handballs.
On Handballs, our numbers say this bet wins about 80 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 80%, the price says 75%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 2:05PM UTC
AFL

Lachie Neale

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: Handballs Over 11.5 that pays $133 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Handballs Over 11.5 -303 (1.33) · $100→$133
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
80 in 100
Predicted
14.9 Handballs
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 80.3% · the book's price implies 75.2% · gap +5.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Handballs80.3%—75.2%1.25+5.1%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Lachie Neale Over 11.5 Handballs (-303)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle is on a strong run, winning 7 of their last 10 games, and they have been scoring well, with an average of nearly 45 points before half-time in their last 12 matches. On the other hand, Lachie Neale from the Brisbane Lions is a key player, and he has been very active with his handballs lately. With both teams playing at the MCG, it's set to be an exciting match. The pick to go over 11.5 handballs for Neale looks solid, considering he's been consistent in games like this. However, it's worth noting that both teams are in good form, so it could be a close contest.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 9 of last 10(90%)

Lachie Neale's lines for Sat 26 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Handballs 11.5
How many disposals does Lachie Neale average?

Lachie Neale's handballs line is 11.5.

Season averages (2024)

Lachie Neale averaged 29.3 disposals, 0.5 goals and 4.6 marks per game across 26 games in 2024.

29.3
Disposals
0.5
Goals
4.6
Marks
3.3
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Lachie Neale has cleared 18.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o18.590%
o19.580%
o21.570%
o23.570%
o25.560%
o27.540%
o29.540%
o30.540%
o32.530%
o34.530%
o36.510%
o38.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Lachie Neale is averaging 23.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

23.4
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Lachie Neale recorded 35 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans35083
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats31065
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS19034
7 Sep 24Carlton27013
24 Aug 24Essendon40171
17 Aug 24Collingwood22215
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS24130
4 Aug 24St Kilda33062
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS35174
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans18024
Quick answers:How many disposals does Lachie Neale average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Clearances 4.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Clearances 3.5 Over -667 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Fantasy 84.5 Over -208 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Fantasy — — — Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Tackles — — — Pending
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Tackles — — — Pending

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About This Player

Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lachie Neale is Over 11.5 on Handballs. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.1% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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