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The latest Bet Better model pick for Lachie Neale is Over 25.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 70%, for a model edge of +3.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 7:11PM UTC
AFL

Lachie Neale

Brisbane Lions

+3.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 25.5 -233 (1.43) · $100→$143
+3.8% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Fri 7 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
73.8%
Implied Probability
69.9%
Model Edge
+3.8%
Predicted Value
28.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.8%69.9%1.36+3.8%

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AI Analysis

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Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions) Over 25.5 Disposals (-233)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at the upcoming clash between the Brisbane Lions and Hawthorn Hawks, all signs point to Lachie Neale being a prime target for the 'Disposals Over' market. Neale, stationed at home in the Gabba, has been a midfield maestro in his recent home games. Averaging 28.4 disposals and boasting a solid contested possessions average of 11.6, Neale is the engine that drives Brisbane's midfield. His ability to find space, combined with a handball average of 16, makes him a pivotal playmaker. With a model prediction of 28.7 disposals and a strong hit rate in recent games, backing Neale to surpass 25.5 disposals seems like a prudent wager. Expect him to dominate the contest and rack up the possessions as he leads the Lions to victory.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 9 of last 10(90%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
28.4avg disposals recent
Season best40
Disposals last 10avg 28.4 · hi 40 · lo 18
18353324224027193135

Lachie Neale has a disposals high of 40 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 25.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 24.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 23.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals Pending
18 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lachie Neale is Over 25.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.8% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions on Friday 7 August at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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