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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Lachie Neale is Under 31.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 54%, for a model edge of +17.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:06PM UTC
AFL

Lachie Neale

Brisbane Lions

+17.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 31.5 -116 (1.86)
+17.9% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 10:10AM
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Model Probability
71.7%
Implied Probability
53.8%
Model Edge
+17.9%
Predicted Value
28.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.7%53.8%1.40+17.9%

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AI Analysis

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Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions) Under 31.5 Disposals (-116)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Lachie Neale, the Brisbane Lions' midfield maestro, heads into the clash against the West Coast Eagles with a spotlight on him. Despite his recent form averaging 30.4 disposals in away games, Neale faces a tough challenge at Optus Stadium. His past encounters with the Eagles have shown a dip in output, averaging 31.8 disposals per game. With the line set at 31.5 disposals, the data hints at a potential struggle for Neale to hit that mark. His consistency with 30 disposals in the last five games also raises some doubts. Neale's reliable performance metrics, like contested possessions and disposal efficiency, may not be enough to push him over this line. Betting on Neale to go under 31.5 disposals could be a shrewd move considering these factors.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
28.4avg disposals recent
Season best40
Disposals last 10avg 28.4 · hi 40 · lo 18
18353324224027193135

Lachie Neale has a disposals high of 40 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 31.5 Under -116 ✗ MISS
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 24.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 23.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lachie Neale is Under 31.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.9% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles on Saturday 18 July at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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