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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Lachie Neale is Over 25.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 70%, edge +3.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 11:38PM UTC
AFL

Lachie Neale

Brisbane Lions

+3.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 25.5 -233 (1.43) · $100→$143
+3.8% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Fri 7 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
28.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.8% · the book's price implies 69.9% · gap +3.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.8%69.9%1.36+3.8%

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AI Analysis

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Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions) Over 25.5 Disposals (-233)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at the upcoming clash between the Brisbane Lions and Hawthorn Hawks, all signs point to Lachie Neale being a prime target for the 'Disposals Over' market. Neale, stationed at home in the Gabba, has been a midfield maestro in his recent home games. Averaging 28.4 disposals and boasting a solid contested possessions average of 11.6, Neale is the engine that drives Brisbane's midfield. His ability to find space, combined with a handball average of 16, makes him a pivotal playmaker. With a model prediction of 28.7 disposals and a strong hit rate in recent games, backing Neale to surpass 25.5 disposals seems like a prudent wager. Expect him to dominate the contest and rack up the possessions as he leads the Lions to victory.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 9 of last 10(90%)

Season averages (2024)

Lachie Neale averaged 29.3 disposals, 0.5 goals and 4.6 marks per game across 26 games in 2024.

29.3
Disposals
0.5
Goals
4.6
Marks
3.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Lachie Neale recorded 35 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans35083
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats31065
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS19034
7 Sep 24Carlton27013
24 Aug 24Essendon40171
17 Aug 24Collingwood22215
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS24130
4 Aug 24St Kilda33062
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS35174
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans18024
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 25.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 24.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 23.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals Pending
18 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lachie Neale is Over 25.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.8% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions on Friday 7 August at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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