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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Corey Wagner is Over 12.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 67 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 67%, the price says 75%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 8:03PM UTC
AFL

Corey Wagner

Fremantle

Value call

Corey Wagner (Fremantle) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 12.5 that pays $134 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 12.5 -294 (1.34) · $100→$134
Value call
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 18 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
67 in 100
Predicted
16.4 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 66.8% · before adjusting for past results 75.5% · the book's price implies 74.6% · gap -7.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals75.5%66.8%74.6%1.50+0.9%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Corey Wagner Over 12.5 Disposals (-294)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Corey Wagner to have over 12.5 disposals look pretty good based on how he's been playing. The Sydney Swans have been on fire, winning 7 of their last 10 games and coming out 26.1 points ahead on average. They also score a lot early, averaging over 57 points before half-time, which means they will likely be moving the ball around a lot. Fremantle has also done well, winning 7 of their last 10, and they have a solid average score as well. The risk here is that both teams are closely matched, so it could be a tight game. Still, Wagner has a strong chance to hit that number with how both teams play right now.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 4(75%)

Season averages (2024)

Corey Wagner averaged 15.9 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.0 marks per game across 12 games in 2024.

15.9
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.0
Marks
1.7
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Corey Wagner has cleared 10.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o10.5100%
o11.5100%
o12.5100%
o14.580%
o15.550%
o17.530%
o18.530%
o19.520%
o21.510%
o22.50%
o24.510%
o25.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Corey Wagner is averaging 15.0 disposals per game over his last 5.

15.0
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Corey Wagner recorded 19 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Port Adelaide19033
17 Aug 24GWS GIANTS13011
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats23063
4 Aug 24Essendon16022
27 Jul 24West Coast Eagles12031
21 Jul 24Melbourne17011
13 Jul 24Hawthorn17073
6 Jul 24Richmond21083
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans210101
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS15011
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 12.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 13.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Marks 2.5 Over -161 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Corey Wagner (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Corey Wagner is Over 12.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.9% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Friday 18 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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