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AFL

Corey Wagner

Fremantle

Value call

Corey Wagner (Fremantle) has one live pick today: over 12.5 disposals that pays $135 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
75 in 100
Predicted
15.9 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 74.9% · the book's price implies 74.1% · gap +0.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 2:30 PM AEST
Corey Wagner
over 12.5 disposals
Disposals Over 12.5 -286 (1.35) · $100→$135
Value call
HIGHWins about 75 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$13.50 Odds-286
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Corey Wagner is Over 12.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 75 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 75%, the price says 74%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 9:40PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.9%—74.1%1.34+0.8%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Corey Wagner Over 12.5 Disposals (-286)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

You can get odds of -286 for Corey Wagner to have over 12.5 disposals, and our numbers really like this bet. Fremantle has been getting the ball inside 50 about 6.7 times more than their opponents in their last 10 games, which means Wagner should have plenty of opportunities to rack up disposals. Plus, Fremantle's rucks have been dominating the hit-outs, winning by over 10 a game, giving him even more chances to get involved. However, the Brisbane Lions have been strong in contested possessions, winning by 3 a game, which could make it tougher for Wagner to get the ball at times. Even so, with Fremantle's solid performance and Wagner's role, it looks like a good chance for him to go over that total.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Season averages (2024)

Corey Wagner averaged 15.9 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.0 marks per game across 12 games in 2024.

15.9
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.0
Marks
1.7
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Corey Wagner has cleared 9.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.5100%
o10.5100%
o11.5100%
o13.590%
o14.580%
o15.550%
o17.530%
o18.530%
o19.520%
o21.510%
o22.510%
o23.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Corey Wagner is averaging 15.0 disposals per game over his last 5.

15.0
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Corey Wagner recorded 19 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Port Adelaide19033
17 Aug 24GWS GIANTS13011
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats23063
4 Aug 24Essendon16022
27 Jul 24West Coast Eagles12031
21 Jul 24Melbourne17011
13 Jul 24Hawthorn17073
6 Jul 24Richmond21083
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans210101
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS15011
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 12.5 Over -286 ✗ MISS
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 12.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 13.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Corey Wagner (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Corey Wagner is Over 12.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.8% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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