Corey Wagner (Fremantle) Over 15.5 Disposals (-139)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Corey Wagner at home is a meaningfully different player to the one you see on the road, and that split is the core of this bet. His L5 home disposals average sits at 19.6 — a full 2.8 touches above his overall L5 mark of 16.2 — and against Sydney specifically he's averaging 20.0 at home and 20.8 across all venues, both comfortably clear of the 15.5 line. The model projects 18.3 disposals, building in a 13.0% edge against implied odds of 58.1% at $1.72. His home efficiency numbers reinforce the case: 82.9% disposal efficiency, 421 metres gained per game, and 14.4 uncontested possessions suggest he's finding clean ball and using it well at Optus Stadium. He's cleared 15.5 in five of his last six home games. The line looks set to his away form rather than his home output — that's the gap worth backing.