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AFL

Ryan Lester

Brisbane Lions

+12.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 14.5 -125 (1.80)
+12.0% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane
Sat 13 Sep, 9:35AM
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Model Probability
67.6%
Implied Probability
55.6%
Model Edge
+12.0%
Predicted Value
12.2 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Ryan Lester (Brisbane Lions) Under 14.5 Disposals (-125)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Ryan Lester's recent home game performance and historical data against Gold Coast support betting on him to have under 14.5 disposals. With a model prediction of 12.2, a 12.0% edge, and an implied probability of 55.6%, Lester's L5 home disposals average of 11.6 falls below the set line. His L5 stats show consistency in contested possessions (3.6), kicks (8.4), and handballs (3.2), indicating he may not reach the line against Gold Coast's tough defense. Additionally, his turnovers (2.4) and uncontested possessions (8.8) suggest limited ball involvement. Lester's recent hit rate of 3/4 in home games and 13/20 overall further support this under bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

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About This Player

Ryan Lester (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ryan Lester is Under 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.0% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 13 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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