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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Ryan Lester is Over 12.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 61%, the price says 72%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 8:58AM UTC
AFL

Ryan Lester

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Ryan Lester (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 12.5 that pays $139 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 12.5 -256 (1.39) · $100→$139
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 7:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
61 in 100
Predicted
15.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 61.0% · before adjusting for past results 72.9% · the book's price implies 71.9% · gap -10.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.9%61.0%71.9%1.64+1.0%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Ryan Lester Over 12.5 Disposals (-256)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Ryan Lester to have over 12.5 disposals look promising. The Brisbane Lions are on a roll, winning 9 of their last 10 games and showing they can dominate by an average of over 31 points per match. They also tend to start strong, scoring nearly 50 points before half-time in their last 12 outings. This suggests they will keep the pressure on, giving Lester more chances to get the ball. However, the risk comes from how close both teams are in some stats, with Hawthorn known to push hard. If they manage to limit his touches, it could be a tougher game for him. Overall, though, with the Lions' current form, this bet has a good chance of hitting.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Ryan Lester averaged 14.4 disposals, 0.0 goals and 6.5 marks per game across 27 games in 2024.

14.4
Disposals
0.0
Goals
6.5
Marks
1.8
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Ryan Lester has cleared 10.5 disposals in 80% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o10.580%
o11.570%
o12.570%
o14.560%
o15.560%
o17.540%
o18.520%
o19.520%
o21.50%
o22.50%
o24.50%
o25.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Ryan Lester is averaging 16.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

16.6
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Ryan Lester recorded 15 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans150114
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats20053
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS11053
7 Sep 24Carlton10053
24 Aug 24Essendon17061
17 Aug 24Collingwood6043
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS16052
4 Aug 24St Kilda12030
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS22083
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans150110
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 12.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Marks 4.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 12.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Marks Pending
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Ryan Lester (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ryan Lester is Over 12.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.0% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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