Ryan Lester (Brisbane Lions) Under 14.5 Disposals (-125)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Ryan Lester's recent home game performance and historical data against Gold Coast support betting on him to have under 14.5 disposals. With a model prediction of 12.2, a 12.0% edge, and an implied probability of 55.6%, Lester's L5 home disposals average of 11.6 falls below the set line. His L5 stats show consistency in contested possessions (3.6), kicks (8.4), and handballs (3.2), indicating he may not reach the line against Gold Coast's tough defense. Additionally, his turnovers (2.4) and uncontested possessions (8.8) suggest limited ball involvement. Lester's recent hit rate of 3/4 in home games and 13/20 overall further support this under bet.