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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ryan Lester is Over 12.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 82%, versus the book's implied 71%, for a model edge of +11.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
AFL

Ryan Lester

Brisbane Lions

+11.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 12.5 -244 (1.41)
+11.4% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 2 Jul, 9:30AM
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Model Probability
82.3%
Implied Probability
70.9%
Model Edge
+11.4%
Predicted Value
17.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.3%—70.9%1.22+11.4%

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AI Analysis

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Ryan Lester (Brisbane Lions) Over 12.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When looking at Ryan Lester's recent form, it's evident he's hitting his stride in away games. Averaging 15.6 disposals in his last five away matches, Lester has been a pillar of consistency for the Brisbane Lions. His ability to find the footy with an average of 11.2 kicks and 4.4 handballs showcases his well-rounded contribution on the field. Against the Geelong Cats, he's maintained a solid average of 15 disposals, indicating his comfort level in this matchup. With a current hit streak and a strong overall hit rate, Lester is poised to snag over 12.5 disposals in this game. Bet on him to keep up his impressive numbers and play a pivotal role in the Lions' midfield battle at GMHBA Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
14.4avg disposals recent
Season best22
Disposals last 10avg 14.4 · hi 22 · lo 6
1522121661710112015

Ryan Lester has a disposals high of 22 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 12.5 Over -244 ✗ MISS
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 11.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 10.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Ryan Lester (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ryan Lester is Over 12.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.4% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 2 July at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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