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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ryan Lester is Over 12.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 82 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 82%, implied 71%, edge +11.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 11:35PM UTC
AFL

Ryan Lester

Brisbane Lions

+11.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 12.5 -244 (1.41) · $100→$141
+11.4% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 2 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
82 in 100
Predicted
17.1 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 82.3% · the book's price implies 70.9% · gap +11.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.3%—70.9%1.22+11.4%

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AI Analysis

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Ryan Lester (Brisbane Lions) Over 12.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When looking at Ryan Lester's recent form, it's evident he's hitting his stride in away games. Averaging 15.6 disposals in his last five away matches, Lester has been a pillar of consistency for the Brisbane Lions. His ability to find the footy with an average of 11.2 kicks and 4.4 handballs showcases his well-rounded contribution on the field. Against the Geelong Cats, he's maintained a solid average of 15 disposals, indicating his comfort level in this matchup. With a current hit streak and a strong overall hit rate, Lester is poised to snag over 12.5 disposals in this game. Bet on him to keep up his impressive numbers and play a pivotal role in the Lions' midfield battle at GMHBA Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Season averages (2024)

Ryan Lester averaged 14.4 disposals, 0.0 goals and 6.5 marks per game across 27 games in 2024.

14.4
Disposals
0.0
Goals
6.5
Marks
1.8
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Ryan Lester recorded 15 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans150114
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats20053
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS11053
7 Sep 24Carlton10053
24 Aug 24Essendon17061
17 Aug 24Collingwood6043
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS16052
4 Aug 24St Kilda12030
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS22083
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans150110
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 12.5 Over -244 ✗ MISS
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 11.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 10.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Ryan Lester (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ryan Lester is Over 12.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.4% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 2 July at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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