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The latest Bet Better model pick for Luke Ryan is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 87%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +1.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 6, 10:03AM UTC
AFL

Luke Ryan

Fremantle

+1.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -588 (1.17)
+1.7% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 31 Jul, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
87.2%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+1.7%
Predicted Value
21.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals87.2%85.5%1.15+1.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Luke Ryan (Fremantle) Over 15.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable ball-winning defenders, Luke Ryan of the Fremantle Dockers stands out as a beacon of consistency. His recent form at home is nothing short of impressive, averaging a solid 20.8 disposals per game over the last five matches. Even more compelling is his dominance against the upcoming opponent, the Western Bulldogs, where he has been racking up an average of 26.2 disposals in their previous encounters. Ryan's ability to read the play and intercept, coupled with his sharp disposal efficiency of 90.7%, makes him a pivotal cog in Fremantle's defensive structure. With a knack for finding space and generating vital metres gained, Ryan is poised to not only meet but exceed the 15.5 disposal line set for him in this upcoming clash at Optus Stadium in Perth. Backing Ryan to surpass 15.5 disposals is not just a bet; it's a calculated move based on his undeniable impact and form, making it a compelling proposition for punters looking to capitalize on his prowess in this crucial matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
80%hit L10 O 19.5
19.2avg disposals L5
Away20.4vs Melbourne23Season best39
O 17.590%
O 18.580%
O 19.580%
O 20.560%
O 21.540%
O 22.530%
Game log vs line (O 19.5)avg 22.8 · hi 36 · lo 15
18262315241730361821

Luke Ryan has gone over 19.5 disposals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 19.2 disposals, best 39).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 15.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 16.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 17.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Luke Ryan (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luke Ryan is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.7% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 31 July at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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