Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Luke Ryan is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 87%, versus the book's implied 83%, for a model edge of +3.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 8:26AM UTC
AFL

Luke Ryan

Fremantle

+3.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -500 (1.20)
+3.9% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Port Adelaide Power
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
87.2%
Implied Probability
83.3%
Model Edge
+3.9%
Predicted Value
21.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals87.2%—83.3%1.15+3.9%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Luke Ryan (Fremantle) Over 15.5 Disposals (-500)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to locking in a solid player prop bet for the upcoming Port Adelaide vs. Fremantle clash, Luke Ryan is the man to watch. His recent form screams consistency and impact. Over his last five away games, Ryan has been a midfield maestro, averaging a hefty 20.6 disposals, with 15.8 kicks and 4.8 handballs per game. What's more, his disposal efficiency of 88.7% showcases his composure under pressure. With an average of 20.7 disposals in his last five games against Port Adelaide, Ryan thrives in this matchup. Plus, with a current hit streak of 7 on the road and a perfect 13/13 hit rate overall, Ryan is poised to surpass the 15.5 disposals line comfortably. Betting on Ryan to shine brightly in this showdown is as safe as houses.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Port AdelaideO 18.5 -172+6.9% edge
60%hit L10 O 18.5
20.2avg disposals L5
Away20.6vs Port Adelaide21.8Season best39
O 16.590%
O 17.580%
O 18.560%
O 19.560%
O 20.550%
O 21.550%
Game log vs line (O 18.5)6 / 10 hit
18262315241730361821

Luke Ryan has gone over 18.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 20.2 disposals, best 39). Current line: Over 18.5 at -172, model edge +6.9%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 13.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 15.5 Over -357 ✗ MISS

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Luke Ryan (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luke Ryan is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.9% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Port Adelaide Power on Saturday 18 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.