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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Luke Ryan is Over 18.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 70 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 70%, implied 68%, edge +1.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 26, 1:56PM UTC
AFL

Luke Ryan

Fremantle

+1.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 18.5 -217 (1.46) · $100→$146
+1.7% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
21.1 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.2% · the book's price implies 68.5% · gap +1.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.2%68.5%1.42+1.7%

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AI Analysis

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Luke Ryan (Fremantle) Over 18.5 Disposals (-217)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to hit the Over on disposals, you want someone who's a consistent ball winner, and Luke Ryan fits the bill perfectly. In his last five away games, he's been a disposal machine, averaging a solid 20.4 possessions per outing. What's even more encouraging is his recent form against Melbourne, where he's been even more prolific, averaging 23.4 disposals per game. Ryan's ability to read the play and intercept, coupled with his impressive disposal efficiency of 89.6%, makes him a reliable option to snag those extra touches. With a current hit streak on the road and an overall hit rate trending positively, Ryan seems poised to have a busy day patrolling the MCG. So, backing him to go Over 18.5 disposals against the Demons looks like a smart play based on his recent performances and matchup history.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Luke Ryan averaged 24.3 disposals, 0.0 goals and 8.6 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

24.3
Disposals
0.0
Goals
8.6
Marks
2.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Luke Ryan recorded 21 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Port Adelaide21065
17 Aug 24GWS GIANTS18062
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats360151
4 Aug 24Essendon30093
27 Jul 24West Coast Eagles17041
21 Jul 24Melbourne24070
13 Jul 24Hawthorn15071
6 Jul 24Richmond23064
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans26081
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS18051
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 18.5 Over -217 ✗ MISS
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 17.5 Over -244 ✗ MISS
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 16.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending
24 Jul 26 West Coast Eagles @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Luke Ryan (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luke Ryan is Over 18.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.7% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 8 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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