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The latest Bet Better model pick for Luke Ryan is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 55 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 55%, implied 73%, edge +0.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 17, 5:41AM UTC
AFL

Luke Ryan

Fremantle

+0.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -270 (1.37) · $100→$137
+0.0% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
20.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.0% · the book's price implies 73.0% · gap +0.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.0%55.2%73.0%1.81+0.0%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Luke Ryan Over 17.5 Disposals (-270)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Luke Ryan has been in solid form lately, making a real impact on the field. He averages nearly 80 minutes of play at Optus Stadium and consistently racks up around 4 score involvements per game. With Fremantle winning 7 of their last 10, he should have plenty of opportunities to boost his stats. Betting on Luke Ryan to get over 17.5 disposals seems like a smart move. He's been effective, especially considering Fremantle's strong performance in recent games. The only concern is that Geelong Cats have also been doing well, and they might keep the pressure on. Still, given Ryan's track record at home, this bet looks promising.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Luke Ryan averaged 24.3 disposals, 0.0 goals and 8.6 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

24.3
Disposals
0.0
Goals
8.6
Marks
2.0
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Luke Ryan has cleared 14.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o14.5100%
o15.590%
o17.580%
o18.560%
o20.530%
o21.510%
o23.50%
o24.50%
o26.50%
o27.50%
o29.50%
o30.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Luke Ryan is averaging 19.0 disposals per game over his last 5.

19.0
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Luke Ryan recorded 21 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Port Adelaide21065
17 Aug 24GWS GIANTS18062
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats360151
4 Aug 24Essendon30093
27 Jul 24West Coast Eagles17041
21 Jul 24Melbourne24070
13 Jul 24Hawthorn15071
6 Jul 24Richmond23064
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans26081
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS18051
Quick answers:How many disposals does Luke Ryan average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Luke Ryan (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Luke Ryan is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.0% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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