Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Ben Keays is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 59 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 59%, implied 61%, edge +7.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 27, 12:18AM UTC
AFL
Ben Keays
Adelaide Crows
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 0.5
-159 (1.63) · $100→$163
+7.8% Edge
Adelaide Crows
@
Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 14 Aug, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
69 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 69.1% · the book's price implies 61.3% · gap +7.8%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 69.1% | 59.4% | 61.3% | 1.68 | +7.8% |
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Ben Keays (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-159)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Ben Keays is shaping as a solid play to kick at least one goal at Optus Stadium on Friday. The model has him projecting at 0.9 goals against a line of just 0.5, generating a 7.8% edge over the implied probability of 61.3% — that's meaningful value at $1.63. What really anchors the case is his away form: Keays has cleared this line in four of his last five road trips, averaging 1.6 goals per away game with 1.8 shots at goal and an outstanding 80% goal accuracy in that sample. His 1.4 marks inside 50 away from home suggests he's getting into dangerous positions and converting when he does. The one flag worth noting is his L5 record against Fremantle specifically — just 0.5 goals — but that overall body of away form and efficiency is hard to dismiss. A live edge worth taking.
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Season averages (2024)
Ben Keays averaged 16.2 disposals, 1.5 goals and 3.8 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Ben Keays recorded 21 disposals and 1 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 24 Aug 24 | Sydney Swans | 21 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 17 Aug 24 | Port Adelaide | 18 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 Aug 24 | Western Bulldogs | 19 | 3 | 8 | 4 |
| 3 Aug 24 | Geelong Cats | 18 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 28 Jul 24 | Hawthorn | 10 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 19 Jul 24 | Essendon | 22 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 Jul 24 | St Kilda | 24 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 Jul 24 | Brisbane Lions | 14 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 29 Jun 24 | GWS GIANTS | 21 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 15 Jun 24 | Sydney Swans | 15 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Ben Keays (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ben Keays is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.8% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 14 August at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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