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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ben Keays is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 69%, for a model edge of +7.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 8:04AM UTC
AFL

Ben Keays

Adelaide Crows

+7.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -222 (1.45)
+7.1% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
76.0%
Implied Probability
69.0%
Model Edge
+7.1%
Predicted Value
1.1 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals76.0%—69.0%1.32+7.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Ben Keays (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to finding a player who knows how to snag a goal, Ben Keays from the Adelaide Crows is your man. In his last five away games, Keays has been a consistent threat in front of the big sticks, averaging 1.2 goals per game with a stellar goal accuracy of 80.0%. His ability to impact the scoreboard is further emphasized by his 4.6 score involvements on average in these matches. Facing the Sydney Swans, Keays has maintained his average of 1.2 goals per game against this opponent in away fixtures. With a current hit streak of 3 away games and 6 overall, Keays is in red-hot form and primed to add to his goal tally. Bet on Keays to continue his scoring spree and bag at least one goal in this upcoming clash at the SCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs Sydney SwansO 0.5 -222+7.1% edge
90%hit L10 O 0.5
1.6avg goals L5
Away1.2vs Sydney Swans1Season best5
O 0.590%
O 1.550%
O 2.520%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)10 / 10 hit
1241511311

Ben Keays has gone over 0.5 goals in 9 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.6 goals, best 5). Current line: Over 0.5 at -222, model edge +7.1%.

DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 15.5
16avg disposals L5
Away14.6vs Sydney Swans18Season best24
O 13.570%
O 14.570%
O 15.550%
O 16.540%
O 17.530%
O 18.510%
Game log vs line (O 15.5)avg 18.2 · hi 24 · lo 10
15211424221018191821

Ben Keays has gone over 15.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 16 disposals, best 24).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -370 ✓ HIT
09 Apr 26 Carlton Blues @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Ben Keays (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ben Keays is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.1% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans on Friday 17 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.