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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Ben Keays is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 75%, for a model edge of +1.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 6, 10:18PM UTC
AFL

Ben Keays

Adelaide Crows

+1.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -294 (1.34)
+1.4% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Thu 23 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
76.0%
Implied Probability
74.6%
Model Edge
+1.4%
Predicted Value
1.1 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals76.0%74.6%1.32+1.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Ben Keays (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-294)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal in the AFL, Ben Keays stands out as a prime candidate to light up the scoreboard for the Adelaide Crows in their clash against the Collingwood Magpies at Adelaide Oval. Keays has been in red-hot form at home, boasting an impressive average of 2 goals per game over his last five matches. His sharpshooting accuracy of 68.3% and consistent shot generation with an average of 3.2 shots on goal per game indicate his goal-scoring prowess. Additionally, with a perfect hit streak of 7 goals in his recent home games, Keays has proven his ability to find the big sticks reliably. With the odds stacked in his favor and the home ground advantage fueling his performance, betting on Keays to score over 0.5 goals is a bet well worth considering for this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 13.5
14avg disposals L5
Home15.8vs Richmond19.2Season best24
O 11.570%
O 12.570%
O 13.550%
O 14.550%
O 15.540%
O 16.520%
Game log vs line (O 13.5)avg 18.2 · hi 24 · lo 10
15211424221018191821

Ben Keays has gone over 13.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 14 disposals, best 24).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.8avg goals L5
Home1.6vs Richmond0.2Season best5
O 0.580%
O 1.540%
O 2.520%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 2 · hi 5 · lo 1
1241511311

Ben Keays has gone over 1.5 goals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.8 goals, best 5).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Goals 0.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -222 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Ben Keays (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ben Keays is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.4% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows on Thursday 23 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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