Ben Keays (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-222)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Ben Keays is one of the more reliable goal-kickers in this market, and the numbers back that up convincingly. His overall hit rate of 16/20 over his last 20 games is hard to ignore, and away from home he's been even sharper in recent form — averaging 1.4 goals per away game across his last five, with 1.8 shots at goal and a tidy 60% accuracy. Against Brisbane specifically, he's averaged 2.3 goals in his last five away contests, which is exceptional context for a line sitting at just 0.5.
The model projects 1.1 goals with a 7.1% edge over the implied 69% probability baked into the $1.45 price. That's a meaningful gap. His 1.2 marks inside 50 and 4.2 score involvements away from home suggest he's consistently getting into dangerous positions. At this line, Keays represents a well-supported edge worth backing.