On Sunday 23 August 2026, Essendon Bombers play Port Adelaide Power in the AFL. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Peter Wright (Essendon) Over 9.5 Disposals, priced at -278 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Peter Wright stands out as a prime candidate to surpass the 9.5 disposals mark in the upcoming clash at Marvel Stadium. Over his last five home games, Wright has been a consistent contributor, averaging 11 disposals with a notable 73.3% disposal efficiency. His ability to cover the ground is evident, averaging 151.8 meters gained per game. Against Port Adelaide, he has historically lifted his disposals output, averaging 8.8 disposals in their recent encounters.
Wright's form and trend of hitting 9 out of 10 times in past home games further solidify his potential to shine in this matchup. With a model prediction of 12.9 disposals and a 9.4% edge, the data aligns in favor of Wright delivering in front of the home crowd. Bet confidently on Wright to rack up the possessions and impact the contest significantly.
Angus Clarke (Essendon) Over 9.5 Disposals (-400)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to putting your money where Angus Clarke is concerned, the stats are shouting from the rooftops. This bloke's been a disposal magnet, averaging a cracking 13.8 disposals in his last five home games. The lad's been slicing through opposition defenses like a hot knife through butter, racking up an average of 9.4 kicks per game. With a disposal efficiency hovering around a solid 79.8%, you can trust him to make those possessions count. Plus, his metes gained have been off the charts, averaging a whopping 268.8 per game. Facing off against Port Adelaide on home turf, Angus is poised to snag more than 9.5 disposals without breaking a sweat. Bet on Clarke to be in the thick of the action and back him to surpass that line with ease.
Essendon Bombers vs Port Adelaide Power: Under 46.5 team_totals_h1 (-120)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy punters, let's dissect this clash between Essendon and Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium. Essendon's recent form at home shows they're firing shots at goal but struggling to convert, averaging 20 shots per game but nabbing just under 10 goals on average. Their points tally of 65.8 at home reflects this inefficiency. On the flip side, Port Adelaide's defense on the road has been leaky, conceding an average of 103.6 points per game and a whopping 118.4 overall. When you pit Essendon's attacking woes against Port's defensive generosity, it paints a picture of a low-scoring affair in the first half. With a line set at 46.5, the under for Essendon in the Team Totals H1 market looks like a smart play here. Expect a grind early on as Essendon battles to convert opportunities and Port Adelaide tries to shore up their leaky defense.
Darcy Byrne-Jones (Port Adelaide) Over 1.5 player_tackles_over (-227)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to gritty, hard-nosed defenders in the AFL, Darcy Byrne-Jones of Port Adelaide Power stands out. As the Power gear up to face Essendon Bombers at Marvel Stadium, Byrne-Jones is poised to make his mark with his tenacity on the field. Over his last five away games, he's been averaging 1.4 tackles, showing his consistency in disrupting opposition attacks. Additionally, when facing Essendon, he ramps it up even more, averaging 2 tackles per game. With a line set at 1.5 tackles, it's evident that Byrne-Jones is likely to surpass this mark, given his recent form and historical performance against the Bombers. Expect him to throw his body around, rack up the tackles, and deliver for those backing him to go over 1.5 tackles in this clash.
Archer Day-Wicks (Essendon) Over 9.5 Disposals (-189)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Looking ahead to the Essendon Bombers clash against Port Adelaide Power at Marvel Stadium, all eyes are on Archer Day-Wicks to deliver a standout performance. With a consistent average of 11 disposals over his last five home games, Day-Wicks has been a midfield force, showcasing his ability to impact the game both offensively and defensively. His recent form, boasting a 66.7% disposal efficiency and 164.6 metres gained per game, indicates his influence in setting up attacking plays and transitioning the ball effectively. Given his current hit streak and the trend of exceeding the 9.5 disposal line, backing Day-Wicks to continue his strong run is a smart bet. Expect him to be in the thick of the action, racking up possessions and driving the Bombers forward.
Essendon Bombers vs Port Adelaide Power: Under 22.5 team_totals_q1 (-118)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Looking at the Essendon Bombers hosting the Port Adelaide Power at Marvel Stadium, the data sets the stage for an intriguing matchup. The Bombers have been a force at home, averaging around 46.8 Inside50s and 20 Shotsatgoal in their last 5 home games. However, their conversion rate has been a bit shaky, only bagging 9.8 goals on average. On the other side, Port Adelaide has been leaky on the road, conceding an average of 103.6 points in their last 5 away games. This defensive vulnerability could play into the Bombers' hands. With Essendon looking to exploit Port's defensive woes and their own slightly inconsistent scoring, the Under 22.5 for the Bombers' Q1 team total appears to be a prudent bet worth considering.
That is how our model reads Essendon Bombers v Port Adelaide Power. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.