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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Smith is Over 29.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 66%, for a model edge of +5.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 9:42AM UTC
AFL

Bailey Smith

Geelong Cats

+5.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 29.5 -196 (1.51)
+5.5% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 2 Jul, 9:30AM
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Model Probability
71.7%
Implied Probability
66.2%
Model Edge
+5.5%
Predicted Value
32.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.7%66.2%1.39+5.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Bailey Smith (Geelong Cats) Over 29.5 Disposals (-196)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bailey Smith, the young gun for the Geelong Cats, is poised to shine in their clash against the Brisbane Lions at GMHBA Stadium. Smith's recent form boasts an impressive average of 31.6 disposals in his last five home games, surpassing the 29.5 line set by the bookies. With a keen eye for contested possessions and sharp disposals, Smith consistently delivers on the field. His ability to read the play, coupled with a solid handball and kick average, sets him apart as a key playmaker. Against the Lions, Smith has historically elevated his game, averaging 27.6 disposals in their last encounters. With a potential edge of 5.5% based on the model prediction, the odds are in our favor for Smith to exceed expectations and rack up the disposals. It's a smart bet to back Smith to eclipse the 29.5 disposals mark in this game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 31.5
31.8avg disposals L5
Home31.2vs St Kilda26.5
O 29.580%
O 30.570%
O 31.560%
O 32.540%
O 33.540%
O 34.520%

Bailey Smith has gone over 31.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 31.8 disposals).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 29.5 Over -196 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 28.5 Over -263 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 26.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Bailey Smith (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Smith is Over 29.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.5% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 2 July at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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