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AFL

Bailey Smith

Geelong Cats

Value call

Bailey Smith (Geelong Cats) has one live pick today: over 2.5 marks that pays $140 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
64 in 100
Predicted
4.2 marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 64.0% · before adjusting for past results 76.6% · the book's price implies 71.4% · gap -7.5%.

Latest Model PickFree
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 8:10 PM AEST
Bailey Smith
over 2.5 marks
Marks Over 2.5 -250 (1.40) · $100→$140
Value call
HIGHWins about 64 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$14.00 Odds-250
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Smith is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 64 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 64%, the price says 71%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:08PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks76.6%64.0%71.4%1.56+5.2%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Bailey Smith Over 2.5 Marks (-250)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For Bailey Smith to get over 2.5 marks tonight, he needs to be active and involved in the game. The numbers show he's likely to grab a few, especially since he has been putting up strong stats recently. His performance indicates he's been getting a lot of chances, so he should be able to hit that mark. One thing to note is that Fremantle's defense can be tough, which might make it harder for him to get those marks. Still, based on how well he's been playing and the chances he's been getting, betting on him to get over 2.5 marks feels like a solid choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
ClearancesSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Bailey Smith - AFL Clearances market.

DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Bailey Smith - AFL Disposals market.

MarksSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Bailey Smith - AFL Marks market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Marks 2.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Clearances 3.5 Over -345 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 33.5 Under -108 ✗ MISS
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Bailey Smith (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Smith is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.2% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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