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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Smith is Over 3.5 on Clearances.
On Clearances, our numbers say this bet wins about 67 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 67%, implied 78%, edge +2.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 15, 7:53AM UTC
AFL

Bailey Smith

Geelong Cats

+2.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Clearances Over 3.5 -357 (1.28) · $100→$128
+2.0% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
80 in 100
Predicted
5.7 Clearances
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 80.1% · the book's price implies 78.1% · gap +2.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Clearances80.1%67.2%78.1%1.49+2.0%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Bailey Smith Over 3.5 Clearances (-357)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For Bailey Smith to get over 3.5 clearances tonight, he needs to be active and involved in the game. He has been pretty solid at GMHBA Stadium, averaging good disposal efficiency and contributing with goals. Fremantle has been strong lately, winning seven of their last ten games, which means they'll likely keep the pressure on Geelong. Geelong Cats have shown they can score points, especially in the first half, but Fremantle's defense has been solid. The risk is that Geelong averages being ahead at quarter-time, which could change how they play. Still, Smith's ability to find the ball and get those clearances makes this a good bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
ClearancesSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Bailey Smith - AFL Clearances market.

DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Bailey Smith - AFL Disposals market.

MarksSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Bailey Smith - AFL Marks market.

Quick answers:How many disposals does Bailey Smith average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Clearances 3.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Marks 2.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 33.5 Under -108 ✗ MISS
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Bailey Smith (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Smith is Over 3.5 on Clearances. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.0% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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