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The latest Bet Better model pick for Bailey Smith is Under 33.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 48 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 48%, implied 52%, edge +19.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 3:37PM UTC
AFL

Bailey Smith

Geelong Cats

+19.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 33.5 -108 (1.93) · $100→$193
+19.6% Edge
Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 22 Aug, 9:45AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
30.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.4% · the book's price implies 51.8% · gap +19.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.4%48.3%51.8%2.03+19.6%

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AI Analysis

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Bailey Smith (Geelong Cats) Under 33.5 Disposals (-108)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bailey Smith, the dynamic midfielder for the Geelong Cats, is set to face off against the Richmond Tigers at the electric GMHBA Stadium. While Smith has been a pivotal figure in the Cats' lineup, recent trends suggest a potential underplay in his disposals. Over his last 5 home games, he's averaged 32.6 disposals, just shy of the 33.5 line. Despite his solid form, his recent matchups against Richmond have seen him fall below the 33.5 threshold, averaging 28 disposals. With a slight dip in overall disposals efficiency at 62.6%, Smith might face a tougher challenge against the Tigers. Considering his recent performances and the matchup dynamics, backing the under on Smith's disposals could be a shrewd move in this highly anticipated clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Bailey Smith - AFL Disposals market.

Quick answers:How many disposals does Bailey Smith average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
22 Aug 26 Richmond Tigers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 33.5 Under -108 ✗ MISS
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 29.5 Over -196 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 28.5 Over -263 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Bailey Smith (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Bailey Smith is Under 33.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.6% on this pick. Their next game is Richmond Tigers vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 22 August at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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