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The latest Bet Better model pick for Lawson Humphries is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 91 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 91%, implied 88%, edge +3.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 1:49PM UTC
AFL

Lawson Humphries

Geelong Cats

+3.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -769 (1.13) · $100→$113
+3.0% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
91 in 100
Predicted
22.3 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 91.5% · the book's price implies 88.5% · gap +3.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals91.5%—88.5%1.09+3.0%

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AI Analysis

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Lawson Humphries (Geelong Cats) Over 15.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Lawson Humphries is on fire, especially at home, snatching an average of 23.8 disposals in his last five games at GMHBA Stadium. His precision is unmatched, boasting an 80.9% disposal efficiency and covering 495.6 meters on average per game. Facing Essendon, he's even more lethal, averaging 15 disposals against them. With a streak of five hits at home and a stellar 5/5 record, Humphries is set to dominate the midfield, easily surpassing the 15.5 disposal line. Bet on him to slice through Essendon's defense, rack up possessions, and lead the Cats to victory.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Season averages (2024)

Lawson Humphries averaged 17.0 disposals, 0.1 goals and 5.9 marks per game across 11 games in 2024.

17.0
Disposals
0.1
Goals
5.9
Marks
1.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Lawson Humphries recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions18046
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide20041
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles8030
17 Aug 24St Kilda24072
10 Aug 24Fremantle16080
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows12154
27 Jul 24North Melbourne21050
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs13030
12 Jul 24Collingwood230131
6 Jul 24Hawthorn17072
Quick answers:How many disposals does Lawson Humphries average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 16.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 17.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 18.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Lawson Humphries (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lawson Humphries is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.0% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 8 August at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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