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The latest Bet Better model pick for Lawson Humphries is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +3.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 8:08AM UTC
AFL

Lawson Humphries

Geelong Cats

+3.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -769 (1.13)
+3.0% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 16 Jul, 9:30AM
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Model Probability
91.5%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+3.0%
Predicted Value
22.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals91.5%—88.5%1.09+3.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Lawson Humphries (Geelong Cats) Over 15.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Lawson Humphries is poised to shine for the Geelong Cats in their clash against the St Kilda Saints. With a home advantage at GMHBA Stadium, his recent form is red hot, hitting an impressive streak of 8 straight games surpassing 15.5 disposals. In his last 5 home games, Humphries has been a midfield maestro, averaging 21 disposals, including a solid 14.6 kicks and 6.4 handballs. His ability to find space and create opportunities is evident in his 78.2% disposal efficiency and 477.8 metres gained per game. Facing St Kilda, against whom he's averaged 20.3 disposals in their previous encounters, the stage is set for Humphries to dominate the midfield and easily surpass the 15.5 disposal mark once again. Trust the trend and back Humphries to deliver in style.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs St KildaO 19.5 -169+8.4% edge
60%hit L10 O 19.5
20.2avg disposals L5
Home21vs St Kilda20.3Season best24
O 17.580%
O 18.570%
O 19.560%
O 20.560%
O 21.550%
O 22.530%
Game log vs line (O 19.5)4 / 10 hit
1723132112162482018

Lawson Humphries has gone over 19.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 20.2 disposals, best 24). Current line: Over 19.5 at -169, model edge +8.4%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 15.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 16.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Lawson Humphries (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lawson Humphries is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.0% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 16 July at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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