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The latest Bet Better model pick for Lawson Humphries is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 88%, versus the book's implied 83%, for a model edge of +4.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 12:13PM UTC
AFL

Lawson Humphries

Geelong Cats

+4.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -500 (1.20)
+4.5% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
87.9%
Implied Probability
83.3%
Model Edge
+4.5%
Predicted Value
22.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals87.9%—83.3%1.14+4.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Lawson Humphries (Geelong Cats) Over 16.5 Disposals (-500)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Lawson Humphries is set to shine on home turf at GMHBA Stadium against Essendon. His recent form is red hot, averaging 23.8 disposals in his last five home games, well above the 16.5 line. Not only does he find plenty of the ball, but his disposal efficiency sits at an impressive 80.9%. With an average of 16.8 kicks and 7 handballs per game, he's a midfield maestro who dictates play. Against Essendon, he's even more prolific, averaging 15 disposals against them. Expect him to continue this trend and rack up the possessions. Back Humphries to go over 16.5 disposals and watch him dominate the field for the Geelong Cats.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Essendon BombersO 19.5 -164
60%hit L10 O 19.5
19.6avg disposals L5
Home23.8vs Essendon15Season best24
O 17.580%
O 18.570%
O 19.560%
O 20.560%
O 21.550%
O 22.530%
Game log vs line (O 19.5)4 / 10 hit
1723132112162482018

Lawson Humphries has gone over 19.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 19.6 disposals, best 24). Current line: Over 19.5 at -164.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 19.5 Over -213 ✗ MISS
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 18.5 Over -303 ✗ MISS
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 17.5 Over -455 ✗ MISS
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals — — — Pending
16 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
16 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Lawson Humphries (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lawson Humphries is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.5% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 8 August at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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