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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Lawson Humphries is Over 3.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 63 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 63%, implied 74%, edge +2.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 15, 7:56AM UTC
AFL

Lawson Humphries

Geelong Cats

+2.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 3.5 -278 (1.36) · $100→$136
+2.5% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
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Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
76 in 100
Predicted
5.3 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 76.0% · the book's price implies 73.5% · gap +2.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks76.0%63.5%73.5%1.58+2.5%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Lawson Humphries Over 3.5 Marks (-278)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Lawson Humphries has been on fire lately, helping Fremantle win 7 of their last 10 games. He's been racking up an impressive average of 19.1 total possessions at GMHBA Stadium, which shows he really gets involved in the game. Betting on him to make over 3.5 marks seems solid since he often finds ways to get his hands on the ball. The only worry here is that Fremantle and Geelong Cats are close in terms of performance, with Geelong showing strong skills as well. Still, with how well Humphries has been playing, this bet looks promising. Let's see if he can keep up the good work!

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Lawson Humphries averaged 17.0 disposals, 0.1 goals and 5.9 marks per game across 11 games in 2024.

17.0
Disposals
0.1
Goals
5.9
Marks
1.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Lawson Humphries recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions18046
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide20041
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles8030
17 Aug 24St Kilda24072
10 Aug 24Fremantle16080
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows12154
27 Jul 24North Melbourne21050
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs13030
12 Jul 24Collingwood230131
6 Jul 24Hawthorn17072
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Marks 3.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Kicks 9.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Kicks 11.5 Over -172 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Lawson Humphries (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lawson Humphries is Over 3.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.5% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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