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Lawson Humphries

Geelong Cats

Value call

Lawson Humphries (Geelong Cats) has one live pick today: over 17.5 disposals that pays $178 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
59 in 100
Predicted
21.1 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 59.3% · before adjusting for past results 74.0% · the book's price implies 56.2% · gap +3.1%.

Latest Model PickFree
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 8:10 PM AEST
Lawson Humphries
over 17.5 disposals
Disposals Over 17.5 -128 (1.78) · $100→$178
Value call
LEANWins about 59 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$17.80 Odds-128
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Lawson Humphries is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 59 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 59%, the price says 56%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:14PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.0%59.3%56.2%1.96+17.8%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Lawson Humphries Over 17.5 Disposals (-128)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Lawson Humphries has been really solid lately, averaging over 19 possessions per game at GMHBA Stadium. He's been getting involved a lot, with 5.4 contested possessions and 6.1 handballs each game. Given how he's been performing, betting on him to get over 17.5 disposals feels like a good choice. Fremantle has been winning a lot, which means they're likely to have the ball in play more often. However, Geelong Cats have been strong too, averaging 55.7 points before half-time, so they can keep the pressure on.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Lawson Humphries averaged 17.0 disposals, 0.1 goals and 5.9 marks per game across 11 games in 2024.

17.0
Disposals
0.1
Goals
5.9
Marks
1.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Lawson Humphries recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions18046
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide20041
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles8030
17 Aug 24St Kilda24072
10 Aug 24Fremantle16080
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows12154
27 Jul 24North Melbourne21050
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs13030
12 Jul 24Collingwood230131
6 Jul 24Hawthorn17072
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 17.5 Over -128 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 16.5 Over -167 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Kicks 11.5 Over -152 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Lawson Humphries (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lawson Humphries is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.8% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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