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Model picks & player props
Brisbane Lions
VS
Sydney Swans

Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 10:14PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
SCG, Sydney
Outdoor
Sat 14 Mar 2026, 8:10AM
3
Game markets graded
12
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Sydney Swans Moneyline -263

The model graded 15 markets for Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $138 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 14 Mar 2026, 8:10AM at SCG.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win81.5%
The price says72.5%
Best price-263
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Sydney Swans High82% chance -263
Goals × 7 props Highup to 92%
Disposals × 5 props Highup to 84%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 12 bookmakers compared
Winner
Brisbane Lions1.32-312Betfair Exchange
Sydney Swans4.00+300Dabble

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Sydney Swans
+ 2 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Sydney SwansMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Lions

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Swans

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Cam Rayner Brisbane Lions Goals
Lincoln McCarthy Brisbane Lions Goals
Sam Draper Essendon Goals
Tom Papley Sydney Swans Disposals
Kai Lohmann Brisbane Lions Goals

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Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans — what the model found

Our model graded 15 betting markets for Brisbane Lions at Sydney Swans — 3 on the game itself and 12 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

3
Game markets graded
12
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 15 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 14 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans — recent results

Sydney Swans have won 5 of their last 5 games; Brisbane Lions have won 4 of their last 5.

Sydney Swans — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W123–70NMFCHome
W112–76ESSAway
W167–70PORTHome
W107–88STKAway
W139–88GWSAway
Brisbane Lions — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W159–96COLLAway
W95–53SUNSHome
W125–58HAWHome
L78–154CARLAway
W126–67PORTHome

Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Sydney Swans won 0, Brisbane Lions won 1.

DateSydney SwansBrisbane LionsWinner
Jun 2583126Brisbane Lions

Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans — model preview

Expert analysis and top betting picks for Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions. Includes analysis on key players like Tom Papley. Discover AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions stats and odds.

Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions : Sydney Swans Win (-263)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The Sydney Swans are primed for success against the Brisbane Lions at the SCG. In their last five home games, the Swans have dominated, boasting an average margin of 16.6 points and a solid defensive record, conceding just 71 points on average. Their midfield prowess is evident with an average of 41.8 clearances and 128.2 contested possessions per game. When attacking, they are clinical, averaging 27.8 shots at goal and 87.6 points. On the flip side, the Lions have struggled on the road, averaging a higher margin against and fewer clearances and contested possessions compared to the Swans. With a strong home record and a well-rounded game, the Swans look set to snag a victory in this clash.

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Lions vs Swans, or as Swans vs Lions. The most recent game between them was Saturday 14 March 2026 at SCG. The model has generated 3 game picks and 12 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 1 meeting
Brisbane Lions 1–0 across the last meeting
DateGameScoreWinner
25 Jun 2026Sydney Swans @ Brisbane Lions126–83Brisbane Lions
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