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Model picks & player props
Adelaide Crows
VS
Brisbane Lions

Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 6, 4:39AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
Gabba, Brisbane
Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep 2026, 9:35AM
4
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Adelaide Crows Moneyline +214

The model graded 4 markets for Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $314 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 12 Sep 2026, 9:35AM at Gabba.

Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win34.8%
The price says31.8%
Best price+214
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Adelaide Crows Long-shot35% chance +214
Spread Lean54% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Brisbane Lions are the model's favourite to beat Adelaide Crows, with a 65% chance to win. Kick-off Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM at Gabba. Best bet: Adelaide Crows at +214.
How they've been scoring this season
Adelaide CrowsBrisbane Lions
Won-lost11-513-6
Points scored per game96.3109.3
Points allowed per game81.593.9
On the road / at home3-3 away7-3 at home
Last 5 gamesWWLWWLWWWL
Their games average 190.5 total points this season.
From the 16 Adelaide Crows and 19 Brisbane Lions games on our books this season.
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Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 14 bookmakers compared
Winner
Adelaide Crows3.45+245Kalshi
Brisbane Lions1.40-250Neds
Market backing Brisbane Lions: 1.46 → 1.43 (11 books)

Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions odds by bookmaker

14 books · best price in green
BookAdelaide Crows winBrisbane Lions winBrisbane Lions -19.5
Betr3.10+2101.37-270
BetRight3.10+2101.37-2701.90-111
Dabble3.20+2201.33-3031.90-111
PlayUp3.10+2101.36-2781.88-114
PointsBet3.05+2051.36-278
Sportsbet3.14+2141.37-270
TAB3.15+2151.37-2701.90-111
TABtouch3.15+2151.36-2781.89-112
Betfair Exchange3.35+2351.39-256
Kalshi3.45+2451.35-285
Ladbrokes3.00+2001.40-250
Neds3.00+2001.40-250
Polymarket3.23+2231.45-223
Unibet3.05+2051.36-278

Since the market opened: Brisbane Lions to win opened 1.36, best now 1.45 (decimal, best book).

Market backing Brisbane Lions: 1.46 → 1.43 (11 books)
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Adelaide Crows
+ 3 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Adelaide CrowsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Adelaide CrowsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Adelaide Crows on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Adelaide Crows
Exact move size 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Crows

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Lions

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

The preview

Written 6 Sep

Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows Prediction & Picks: Full Match Breakdown & Bets

On September 12, 2026 our model has run Adelaide Crows at Brisbane Lions and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Adelaide Crows 18.5 Spread (-111), which we rate lean confidence. Every bet below is our own number against the price on the board, in plain English.

Every bet we like in this game

Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Adelaide Crows 18.5 Spread (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Brisbane Lions have been really strong at home, winning most of their games by over 24 points. However, the Adelaide Crows have been on a roll lately, winning seven out of their last ten matches. This makes the matchup a bit tricky, especially since the Crows are known to fight hard in contested situations, winning more of those battles per game. Betting on the Crows to stay within 18.5 points is worth considering. They've been scoring well and have a good chance to keep it competitive. The biggest risk here is that the Lions usually perform well at Gabba, making it tough for any away team. Still, the Crows' recent form gives them a solid shot to cover that spread.

Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Adelaide Crows Head to Head (+214)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Brisbane Lions have been on fire lately, winning 9 of their last 10 games. However, the Adelaide Crows also have a strong record, winning 7 of their last 10. The Crows have been tough on contested possessions, winning by an average of over 8 a game lately, which shows they can really compete in close matches. The Crows have a solid defense, conceding only 78.3 points per match in their last 12 games. While the Lions have been scoring well, there's a real chance for the Crows to pull off an upset here, especially as the odds are in their favor. The biggest risk is how well the Lions play at home, but the Crows are capable of challenging them.

That is the full board for this game. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Betting angles

2 markets live
MoneylineAdelaide Crows to win+214
+31.8Brisbane Lions margin (L5)
Model pickAdelaide Crows to winBrisbane Lions PF/G114.8Adelaide Crows PF/G103.8Brisbane Lions vs opp (L5)0-5

Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions on Sep 12 - Moneyline: the model's pick is Adelaide Crows to win at +214, a 35% model win % (LONG-SHOT). Over their last five games Brisbane Lions average 114.8 points and Adelaide Crows 103.8.

LineAdelaide Crows +18.518.5 -111
54%cover %
+31.8Brisbane Lions margin (L5)
Model pickAdelaide Crows +18.5Brisbane Lions PF/G114.8Adelaide Crows PF/G103.8

Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions on Sep 12 - Line: the model's pick is Adelaide Crows +18.5 at -111, a 54% cover % (LEAN). Over their last five games Brisbane Lions average 114.8 points and Adelaide Crows 103.8.

Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions — what the model found

Our model graded 4 betting markets for Adelaide Crows at Brisbane Lions — 4 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

4
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 4 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 3 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions — recent results

Brisbane Lions have won 3 of their last 5 games; Adelaide Crows have won 4 of their last 5.

Brisbane Lions — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L88–141SYDAway
W159–96COLLAway
W95–53SUNSHome
W125–58HAWHome
L78–154CARLAway
Adelaide Crows — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W90–68WBHome
W157–101GWSHome
L88–112FREAway
W63–54RICHHome
W145–73ESSAway

Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Brisbane Lions won 1, Adelaide Crows won 0.

DateBrisbane LionsAdelaide CrowsWinner
Apr 2612775Brisbane Lions

Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions — where the money went

Since betting opened on Adelaide Crows at Brisbane Lions, the market has moved away from Adelaide Crows across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Moneyline — Adelaide Crows▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — Brisbane Lions▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions — model preview

Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows, 6 September 2026. Top of the list: Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Adelaide Crows 18.5. Here is why, in plain English.

On September 12, 2026 our model has run Adelaide Crows at Brisbane Lions and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Adelaide Crows 18.5 Spread (-111), which we rate lean confidence. Every bet below is our own number against the price on the board, in plain English.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Crows vs Lions, or as Lions vs Crows. The next scheduled game is Saturday 12 September 2026 at Gabba. The model has generated 4 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 1 meeting
Brisbane Lions 1–0 across the last meeting
DateGameScoreWinner
26 Apr 2026Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions127–75Brisbane Lions
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