On September 12, 2026 our model has run Adelaide Crows at Brisbane Lions and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Under 49.5 Team Total Points H1 (-112), which we rate lean confidence. Every bet below is our own number against the price on the board, in plain English.
Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Under 49.5 Team Total Points H1 (-112)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
The Brisbane Lions have been on fire, winning 9 of their last 10 matches and averaging nearly 50 points before half-time in their past games. This makes them a strong team, but the Adelaide Crows have also been impressive, winning 7 of their last 10 and scoring an average of just over 50 points in the first half.
With both teams being so close in their scoring patterns, it's tough to see either team blowing up the scoreboard too much. That said, the expected total points for this game is around 47.1, which gives us a good reason to bet on under 49.5 points in the first half. The most concrete risk is that both teams could surprise us and score more than expected, but it's definitely worth a shot considering the current trends.
Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Under 25.5 Team Total Points Q1 (-114)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Brisbane Lions have been on a roll, winning 9 of their last 10 games. They also score an average of nearly 50 points before half-time. However, the Adelaide Crows are no slouches either, winning 7 of their last 10 and putting up similar first-half numbers. This matchup is expected to be tight, and the numbers suggest that both teams might start slow.
Betting on the Lions to score under 25.5 points in the first quarter feels like a solid choice. The combined total for the first quarter is projected to be around 23.5 points, making this bet a reasonable pick. The main risk is just how closely matched these two teams are, which could make for a surprising start.
Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Adelaide Crows Head to Head (+229)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Brisbane Lions have been on fire, winning 9 of their last 10 games. They also tend to score a lot before half-time, averaging nearly 50 points in those games. However, the Adelaide Crows have shown they can start strong, averaging over 32 points in the first quarter this season.
While the Lions are tough at home, the Crows are underdogs with a real chance to surprise. Their scoring in the last quarter has been solid, and they often keep up with their opponents. The biggest risk is that the Crows have struggled in the middle parts of games. Still, with those early strong starts, they could pull off an upset at good odds.
Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Sam Berry Over 19.5 Disposals (-112)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
The odds for Sam Berry to get over 19.5 disposals look promising. Our numbers show he has a solid chance to hit that mark, especially considering both teams are in good form. The Brisbane Lions have been dominating lately, winning 9 of their last 10 games and often leading by over 30 points. This could mean plenty of ball movement, giving Berry more opportunities to rack up disposals.
The Adelaide Crows have also been strong, winning 7 of their last 10, so they won't make it easy for him. However, there's a risk here since both teams are closely matched, and if the game turns out to be tightly contested, it might limit Berry's chances. Still, with the way both teams have been playing, this bet feels like a good spot to take a chance.
Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Luke Nankervis Over 14.5 Disposals (-114)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
Brisbane Lions have been on fire lately, winning 9 of their last 10 matches and often dominating their opponents by over 30 points. Luke Nankervis is in a great spot to get plenty of disposals, especially since both teams have been scoring heavily before half-time. With the Lions averaging almost 50 points before the break, it should create a lot of opportunities for him to get involved.
The Adelaide Crows are also strong, winning 7 of their last 10 games, which means this could be a close match. The risk here is that Nankervis might not get as many chances if the game stays tight. Still, with the numbers looking good, betting on him to get over 14.5 disposals seems like a solid choice.
Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Logan Morris Under 11.5 Disposals (-115)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
The Brisbane Lions have been on fire lately, winning 9 of their last 10 games and dominating by an average of over 31 points in their recent matches. Logan Morris is in a tough spot, especially with the Lions' strong defense. They have been great at limiting their opponents' scoring chances, which could mean fewer disposals for him.
On the other hand, the Adelaide Crows are also performing well, winning 7 of their last 10 games. However, the matchup shows that both teams are closely matched in some areas, making it tricky for Morris to rack up the numbers. With both teams' defenses stepping up, betting on him to have under 11.5 disposals seems like a solid choice.
That is the whole read on this one. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.