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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam De Koning is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 81 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 81%, implied 71%, edge +9.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 9, 6:52AM UTC
AFL

Sam De Koning

Geelong Cats

+9.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -250 (1.40) · $100→$140
+9.6% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
81 in 100
Predicted
13.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 81.0% · the book's price implies 71.4% · gap +9.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals81.0%—71.4%1.23+9.6%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Sam De Koning Over 9.5 Disposals (-250)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Sam De Koning has some impressive stats going into this game. He's been getting more tackles inside the 50 than most players, which shows he's really involved in the action. With Fremantle Dockers playing at home against the Geelong Cats, it's a great chance for him to rack up over 9.5 disposals, especially since our numbers see him as a strong favorite to do just that. However, Geelong also has some solid players who can put pressure on him. This matchup could be closer than expected, so while betting on De Koning to get over 9.5 disposals looks promising, there's always a risk if he struggles to get the ball in crucial moments. Overall, it seems like a fun bet to consider!

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Pick History & Track Record

Sam De Koning's lines for Fri 11 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 9.5

Sam De Koning's disposals line is 9.5.

Disposals 10.5

Sam De Koning's disposals line is 10.5.

Season averages (2024)

Sam De Koning averaged 14.6 disposals, 0.2 goals and 3.4 marks per game across 19 games in 2024.

14.6
Disposals
0.2
Goals
3.4
Marks
1.4
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Sam De Koning has cleared 9.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.5100%
o10.5100%
o11.550%
o12.570%
o13.530%
o14.510%
o15.550%
o16.530%
o17.510%
o18.520%
o19.510%
o20.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Sam De Koning is averaging 14.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

14.2
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (3 Aug 24 vs Adelaide Crows), Sam De Koning recorded 10 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows10030
27 Jul 24North Melbourne11040
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs20033
12 Jul 24Collingwood22031
6 Jul 24Hawthorn20246
29 Jun 24Essendon21031
21 Jun 24Carlton20125
9 Jun 24Sydney Swans10030
1 Jun 24Richmond12031
25 May 24GWS GIANTS17080
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Sam De Koning (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam De Koning is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.6% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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