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The latest Bet Better model pick for Noah Answerth is Over 11.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 71%, implied 65%, edge +6.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 4, 4:13AM UTC
AFL

Noah Answerth

Brisbane Lions

+6.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 11.5 -185 (1.54) · $100→$154
+6.3% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 5 Sep, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 24°C (May 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
14.1 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.2% · the book's price implies 64.9% · gap +6.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.2%64.9%1.40+6.3%

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions: Noah Answerth Over 11.5 Disposals (-185)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

The bet on Noah Answerth getting over 11.5 disposals looks pretty solid at these odds. Sydney Swans have been strong lately, winning 7 out of their last 10 games and scoring an impressive average of 111 points. They also tend to get a lot of contested possessions, which means more opportunities for players like Answerth to rack up his numbers. Brisbane Lions have also been on a hot streak, winning 9 of their last 10. However, they do concede a fair number of points too, allowing 83.2 points in their recent matches. Keep in mind that both teams are close in contested ball wins, which means it could go either way. But with Answerth's role in the game, there's a good chance he can hit that mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Noah Answerth averaged 12.3 disposals, 0.0 goals and 3.4 marks per game across 16 games in 2024.

12.3
Disposals
0.0
Goals
3.4
Marks
4.1
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Noah Answerth has cleared 9.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.5100%
o10.590%
o11.590%
o12.560%
o13.530%
o14.520%
o15.520%
o16.510%
o17.510%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o20.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Noah Answerth is averaging 12.0 disposals per game over his last 5.

12.0
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Noah Answerth recorded 15 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans15063
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats20088
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS130211
7 Sep 24Carlton6026
24 Aug 24Essendon18034
14 Jun 24St Kilda4020
7 Jun 24Western Bulldogs2002
26 May 24Hawthorn12033
18 May 24Richmond11033
5 May 24Gold Coast SUNS0000
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Noah Answerth (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Noah Answerth is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.3% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 5 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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