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Model picks & player props
Cincinnati Reds
VS
Los Angeles Dodgers

Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Outdoor
Fri 3 Oct 2025, 1:08AM
20
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 12 (Total Runs)
For Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB), model win probability 96.4%, fair odds 1.04, book price -333, model edge +19.5%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Fri 3 Oct 2025, 1:08AM at Dodger Stadium.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs
Under
12
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Cincinnati Reds

  • Blake Dunn CFOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BDay-to-day
  • Matt McLain 2BOut
  • Tony Santillan RPOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut
  • Nick Lodolo SPOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Abbott SP

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Edwin Diaz RPOut
  • Will Smith COut
  • Enrique Hernandez 1BOut
  • Tyler Glasnow SPOut
  • Blake Snell SPOut
  • Blake Treinen RPOut
  • Bobby Miller SPOut
  • Gavin Stone SPOut
  • Brusdar Graterol RPOut
  • Ben Casparius RPOut
  • Jake Cousins RPOut

Probable pitcher

Emmet Sheehan SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 10:51AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineLos Angeles DodgersNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF5.6L5 RA3.2Home L53-2vs Cincinnati Reds L53-2

Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline form: last five 4-1, 5.6 runs/gm.

Run LineLos Angeles Dodgers run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF5.6L5 RA3.2Home L53-2vs Cincinnati Reds L53-2

Los Angeles Dodgers spread form: last five 4-1, 5.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati RedsNo line posted

Los Angeles Dodgers total runs form: last five 4-1, 5.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsLos Angeles Dodgers team totalNo line posted
3.9implied team total
L5 RF5.6L5 RA3.2Home L53-2vs Cincinnati Reds L53-2

Los Angeles Dodgers team total runs form: last five 4-1, 5.6 runs/gm.

Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Los Angeles Dodgers are scoring 4.4 runs per game (4-1) while Cincinnati Reds are at 8.0 (2-3); Los Angeles Dodgers pitchers are allowing 3.6 earned runs per game versus 4.2 for Cincinnati Reds.

4.4
Los Angeles Dodgers runs/G
8.0
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
Last 5 gamesLos Angeles DodgersCincinnati Reds
Runs / game4.48.0
Hits / game5.812.4
Home runs / game1.22.0
Walks drawn / game3.26.0
Batter K / game7.89.8
Earned runs allowed / game3.64.2
Pitching K / game9.87.4
Walks allowed / game1.43.4
L5 record4-12-3

Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds stats and odds.</p>

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds : Over 3.5 alternate_team_totals (+134)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The Cincinnati Reds have shown strong offensive performance in their recent games, averaging 8 runs per game both overall and in away games. This is more than double the line set for this bet. Their batting average also supports this trend, with 12.4 hits per game. On the other hand, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been allowing an average of 4.4 runs in their recent home games, which is higher than the line set for this bet. Additionally, the Dodgers' pitchers have been giving up an average of 1.6 walks per game at home, which could provide the Reds with additional scoring opportunities. Therefore, based on the Reds' strong offensive performance and the Dodgers' recent defensive weaknesses, betting on the Reds to score over 3.5 runs is a statistically sound choice.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds : Under 10.5 Total Runs (-455)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The rationale for the 'Under 10.5' bet is supported by several key statistics. Firstly, the Dodgers have a strong recent home record, winning 3 of their last 5 games, and have averaged 4.4 runs per game overall, which drops to 4 at home. Their average runs allowed also stands at 3.6 overall and 4.4 at home. The Reds, on the other hand, have averaged 8 runs scored and 4.6 runs allowed in their last 5 games. Furthermore, both teams have shown strong pitching performances, with the Dodgers averaging 9.8 strikeouts and the Reds averaging 7.4. Considering these figures, the total runs in the game are unlikely to exceed 10.5. The model prediction of 6.87 further supports this, suggesting a lower scoring game is more probable. This analysis, therefore, supports the 'Under 10.5' bet.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds : Under 3.5 alternate_team_totals (+116)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on the Los Angeles Dodgers scoring under 3.5 runs is a strong choice considering the Dodgers' recent performance and the Reds' defensive capabilities. The Dodgers have averaged 4 runs at home in their last five games and their batting average has been relatively low at 5.8 hits. This suggests they may struggle to score more than 3.5 runs. Furthermore, the Reds have been consistent in their defensive play, allowing an average of 4.6 runs in their last five games. This shows that the Reds have the ability to keep the Dodgers' scoring under control. Additionally, the model prediction is only marginally above the line at 3.6, indicating that the likelihood of the Dodgers scoring under 3.5 runs is high.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds : Under 10.5 Total Runs (-500)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The 'Under 10.5' bet is a solid choice for the Dodgers vs Reds game, supported by the teams' recent performance data. The Dodgers' average runs scored at home over the last five games is 4, and their average runs allowed is 4.4, suggesting a typical total runs around 8.4, well under the line of 10.5. The Reds, while scoring high on average (8 runs), also allow an average of 4.6 runs. Even with their higher scoring, the combined average is still below the line. Additionally, both teams show strong pitching performance, with the Dodgers averaging 9.8 strikeouts and the Reds 7.4, which can limit the opponents' scoring opportunities. Overall, the recent performance data indicates a lower-scoring game, making the 'Under 10.5' bet a sensible choice.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds : Under 8.5 Total Runs (-192)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The 'Under 8.5' bet for the Dodgers vs Reds game is a feasible choice due to both teams' recent scoring and defensive records. Averaging the Dodgers' home runs scored (4) and the Reds' away runs allowed (4.6), we get a predicted total of 8.6. However, this figure doesn't account for the Dodgers' strong defensive performance, with an average of only 3.6 runs allowed in their last five games, and the Reds' lower scoring average on the road (8 runs). Furthermore, the Dodgers' home batting average (5.8) is significantly lower than the Reds' away batting average (12.4), indicating a potential difficulty in scoring. The model prediction also supports this bet with a total of 6.87, well under the line of 8.5. Therefore, the data suggests a lower scoring game, making the 'Under 8.5' bet a logical choice.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds : Under 9.5 Total Runs (-333)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The 'Under 9.5' bet is a solid choice for the Dodgers vs Reds game, considering both teams' recent performance data. The Dodgers' last five games at home have seen an average of 4 runs scored, while the Reds have averaged 8 runs in their last five away games. This combined average of 12 is significantly higher than the model prediction of 6.87 runs. However, the Dodgers have a strong defensive record, allowing an average of only 3.6 runs in their last five games overall. Additionally, the Dodgers' pitchers have a high strikeout average (9.8), which could further limit the Reds' scoring opportunities. The Reds, on the other hand, have averaged 4.6 runs allowed in their last five away games, suggesting they too can limit the Dodgers' run production. Therefore, the combined defensive strengths of both teams make the 'Under 9.5' bet a logical choice.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Friday 3 October 2025 at Dodger Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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