Isaiah Dudley (Fremantle) Over 0.5 Goals (-233)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Dudley has been one of the more reliable goal-kickers in this market lately, and the numbers back that up convincingly. He's hit this line in seven straight home games — a 7/7 clip at Optus Stadium — and carries an overall L5 goals average of 1.0, which sits comfortably above the 0.5 line. His 3.0 shots at goal per game across the last five overall tells you he's getting into positions to score, and with 6.8 score involvements per game, he's genuinely embedded in Fremantle's forward structure.
The model projects him at 1.0 goal with a 2.2% edge over the implied 69.9% probability baked into the $1.43 price. The one flag is a 33% goal accuracy at home and a modest 0.4 marks inside 50 on the home deck, so he'll need to convert from ground level. Still, the volume of shots and that home streak make this a legitimate edge worth taking.