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The latest Bet Better model pick for Conor McKenna is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 60%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 3, 12:21PM UTC
AFL

Conor McKenna

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Conor McKenna (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: Goals Over 0.5 that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
60 in 100
Predicted
1.1 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 59.7% · before adjusting for past results 71.5% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +6.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals71.5%59.7%53.2%1.67+18.3%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Conor McKenna Over 0.5 Goals (-114)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Conor McKenna to score over half a goal are looking pretty good at -114. Our numbers give this a solid chance because McKenna has been on fire lately, with an average of two goal assists in recent matches. He's also been hitting the target with a remarkable accuracy of 90, way above what's typical. One thing to watch out for is that Fremantle and Brisbane are both fairly even teams, so it could be a close game. Still, with McKenna's recent form, he's likely to find the net at least once. This bet is worth a shot!

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Conor McKenna averaged 13.0 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.3 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

13.0
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.3
Marks
0.6
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Conor McKenna has cleared 9.5 disposals in 70% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.570%
o10.560%
o11.540%
o12.540%
o13.530%
o14.520%
o16.510%
o17.510%
o18.510%
o19.50%
o20.50%
o21.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Conor McKenna is averaging 13.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

13.4
Disp · Overall
1.4
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Conor McKenna recorded 3 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans3020
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats3000
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS6010
7 Sep 24Carlton7023
24 Aug 24Essendon15040
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS4020
14 Jul 24West Coast Eagles8040
7 Jul 24Adelaide Crows15060
28 Jun 24Melbourne18040
22 Jun 24Port Adelaide20070
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 0.5 Over -114 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -128 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Marks 1.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Goals — — — Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Conor McKenna (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Conor McKenna is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.3% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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