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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Conor McKenna is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 77%, versus the book's implied 68%, for a model edge of +9.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 2, 12:52PM UTC
AFL

Conor McKenna

Brisbane Lions

+9.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -213 (1.47)
+9.3% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 1 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
77.3%
Implied Probability
68.0%
Model Edge
+9.3%
Predicted Value
1.1 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals77.3%68.0%1.29+9.3%

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AI Analysis

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Conor McKenna (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-213)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Conor McKenna to snag a goal against Carlton, the numbers paint a compelling picture. Over his last five away games, McKenna has been a sharpshooter, averaging 1.6 goals per game. With a solid 54.7% goal accuracy and 3.4 shots on goal per match, he's a constant threat in the forward line. His recent form against Carlton has seen him average a goal per game, showcasing his ability to capitalize on the opportunities presented to him. McKenna's consistent involvement in scoring plays, with an average of 5.6 score involvements per game, further cements his impact. With a streak of 6 consecutive away games with goals and an overall hit rate of 6 out of his last 7 matches, McKenna is primed to continue his scoring run. Betting on McKenna to score over 0.5 goals is a solid play given his recent form and historical performance against Carlton.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0avg goals recent
Season best1
Goals last 10avg 0 · hi 0 · lo 0
0000000000

Conor McKenna has a goals high of 1 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -213 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles Goals 0.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Conor McKenna (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Conor McKenna is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.3% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues on Saturday 1 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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