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Conor McKenna

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Conor McKenna (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: over 0.5 goals that pays $189 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
60 in 100
Predicted
1.1 goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 59.7% · before adjusting for past results 71.5% · the book's price implies 52.9% · gap +6.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 2:30 PM AEST
Conor McKenna
over 0.5 goals
Goals Over 0.5 -112 (1.89) · $100→$189
Value call
HIGHWins about 60 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.90 Odds-112
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Conor McKenna is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 60%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 23, 6:56PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals71.5%59.7%52.9%1.67+18.6%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Conor McKenna Over 0.5 Goals (-112)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Conor McKenna to score over 0.5 goals are looking pretty solid at -112. Our numbers give this a good chance because Fremantle has been letting opponents get inside their 50 a lot more than they have been able to, making it easier for players like McKenna to have scoring opportunities. He's got the ability to take advantage of the space, especially since Fremantle has struggled a bit with contested possessions. One risk to keep in mind is that Fremantle's rucks have been winning the hit-out count quite comfortably. If they can keep possession, it might limit McKenna's chances. Still, with the way the teams are matched up, he has a decent shot to find the scoreboard.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Conor McKenna averaged 13.0 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.3 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

13.0
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.3
Marks
0.6
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Conor McKenna has cleared 9.5 disposals in 70% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.570%
o10.560%
o11.540%
o12.540%
o13.530%
o14.520%
o16.510%
o17.510%
o18.510%
o19.50%
o20.50%
o21.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Conor McKenna is averaging 13.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

13.4
Disp · Overall
1.4
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Conor McKenna recorded 3 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans3020
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats3000
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS6010
7 Sep 24Carlton7023
24 Aug 24Essendon15040
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS4020
14 Jul 24West Coast Eagles8040
7 Jul 24Adelaide Crows15060
28 Jun 24Melbourne18040
22 Jun 24Port Adelaide20070
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 0.5 Over -112 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -116 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Marks 1.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Goals — — — Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Marks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Conor McKenna (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Conor McKenna is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.6% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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