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The latest Bet Better model pick for Conor McKenna is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 61%, implied 57%, edge +16.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 22, 3:09PM UTC
AFL

Conor McKenna

Brisbane Lions

+16.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -133 (1.75) · $100→$175
+16.3% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 21 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
1.2 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.4% · the book's price implies 57.1% · gap +16.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals73.4%61.2%57.1%1.63+16.3%

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AI Analysis

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Conor McKenna (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-133)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Conor McKenna is set to bring the heat against Collingwood at the MCG. In his last five away games, he's been a consistent threat, averaging 1.2 goals per game with a sharp 44.7% goal accuracy. With an impressive 5.2 score involvements and 3.2 inside 50s per match, McKenna is a key playmaker for Brisbane. Facing a Collingwood side where he's averaged no less than a goal per game in their recent encounters, McKenna is poised to exploit their defense. Despite a lower overall goal average, his recent form and history against Collingwood make him a strong bet to snag at least one goal in this matchup. Get ready to see McKenna split the middle and help you secure that Over 0.5 goals bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Season averages (2024)

Conor McKenna averaged 13.0 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.3 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

13.0
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.3
Marks
0.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Conor McKenna recorded 3 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans3020
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats3000
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS6010
7 Sep 24Carlton7023
24 Aug 24Essendon15040
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS4020
14 Jul 24West Coast Eagles8040
7 Jul 24Adelaide Crows15060
28 Jun 24Melbourne18040
22 Jun 24Port Adelaide20070
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Collingwood Magpies Goals 0.5 Over -133 ✓ HIT
21 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Collingwood Magpies Marks 1.5 Over -204 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Brisbane Lions Goals 0.5 Over -175 ✗ MISS
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Goals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Conor McKenna (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Conor McKenna is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.3% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood Magpies on Friday 21 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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