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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Conor McKenna is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 77%, versus the book's implied 76%, for a model edge of +1.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 13, 10:26AM UTC
AFL

Conor McKenna

Brisbane Lions

+1.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -323 (1.31)
+1.0% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
77.3%
Implied Probability
76.3%
Model Edge
+1.0%
Predicted Value
1.1 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals77.3%76.3%1.29+1.0%

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Beat the closing line — our published picks in this player's games beat the closing line 0 of 10 times (0%), -0.4% avg CLV. Verified closing-line value.

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Conor McKenna (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Conor McKenna is a jetsetter on a goal-scoring tear, riding a red-hot streak of 5 games where he's been as accurate as a sharpshooter. Averaging 1.8 goals over his last 5 away games, McKenna's foot skills and nose for the big sticks make him a prime candidate to snag one against the West Coast Eagles. His recent form boasts a stellar 54.7% goal accuracy and an impressive 6.2 score involvements per game. Facing the Eagles, who he's historically blanked, McKenna is due for a breakout against their defense. With a model predicting him to hit 1.1 goals and the implied probability tipping the scales at 76.3%, McKenna looks poised to continue his scoring spree and back the Over 0.5 in the 'Player Goals' market.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Conor McKenna (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Conor McKenna is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.0% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles on Saturday 18 July at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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