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The latest Bet Better model pick for Conor McKenna is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 61%, implied 59%, edge +14.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 12, 4:13AM UTC
AFL

Conor McKenna

Brisbane Lions

+14.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -145 (1.69) · $100→$169
+14.3% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
1.2 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.4% · the book's price implies 59.2% · gap +14.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals73.4%61.3%59.2%1.63+14.3%

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Conor McKenna Over 0.5 Goals (-145)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Conor McKenna to score over 0.5 goals are pretty solid at -145. Our numbers show he has a good chance of hitting that mark, especially since he's been active in getting involved in plays lately. With his impressive recent stats, he's been finding opportunities to score more often. One thing to keep in mind is that Adelaide has been decent at defending, so it might not be a sure bet. Still, with McKenna's current form and the way he's been playing at the Gabba, it looks promising for him to find the goal at least once.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Conor McKenna's lines for Sat 12 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Goals 0.5

Conor McKenna's goals line is 0.5.

Marks 1.5

Conor McKenna's marks line is 1.5.

Disposals 9.5

Conor McKenna's disposals line is 9.5.

Season averages (2024)

Conor McKenna averaged 13.0 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.3 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

13.0
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.3
Marks
0.6
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Conor McKenna has cleared 9.5 disposals in 70% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.570%
o10.560%
o11.540%
o12.540%
o13.540%
o14.530%
o15.510%
o16.510%
o17.510%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o20.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Conor McKenna is averaging 12.0 disposals per game over his last 5.

12.0
Disp · Overall
1.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Conor McKenna recorded 3 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans3020
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats3000
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS6010
7 Sep 24Carlton7023
24 Aug 24Essendon15040
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS4020
14 Jul 24West Coast Eagles8040
7 Jul 24Adelaide Crows15060
28 Jun 24Melbourne18040
22 Jun 24Port Adelaide20070
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Marks 1.5 Over -213 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -135 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals 9.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
21 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Collingwood Magpies Goals — — — Pending
21 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Collingwood Magpies Marks — — — Pending
15 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Brisbane Lions Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Conor McKenna (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Conor McKenna is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.3% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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