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AFL

Kai Lohmann

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Kai Lohmann (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: over 10.5 disposals that pays $155 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
76 in 100
Predicted
13.6 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 76.1% · the book's price implies 64.5% · gap +11.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 2:30 PM AEST
Kai Lohmann
over 10.5 disposals
Disposals Over 10.5 -182 (1.55) · $100→$155
Value call
HIGHWins about 76 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$15.50 Odds-182
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Kai Lohmann is Over 10.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 76 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 76%, the price says 65%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 8:53PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.1%—64.5%1.31+11.6%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Kai Lohmann Over 10.5 Disposals (-182)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Kai Lohmann to get over 10.5 disposals look promising. Fremantle tends to get the ball inside 50 more often than Brisbane, which can help Lohmann get his hands on the footy. Plus, Fremantle's rucks are winning a lot of hit-outs, meaning there might be plenty of chances for him to gather the ball. One thing to keep in mind is that Fremantle loses contested balls, so they might struggle to keep possession. This could affect Lohmann's stats if Brisbane's players are quicker to the ball. Still, our numbers see him as a strong favourite to get over that mark, so it should be an exciting game to watch!

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Kai Lohmann averaged 11.6 disposals, 1.3 goals and 3.9 marks per game across 27 games in 2024.

11.6
Disposals
1.3
Goals
3.9
Marks
3.0
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Kai Lohmann has cleared 9.5 disposals in 80% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.580%
o10.580%
o11.560%
o12.560%
o13.540%
o14.540%
o15.540%
o16.540%
o17.530%
o18.510%
o19.510%
o20.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Kai Lohmann is averaging 12.8 disposals per game over his last 5 and 13.2 in away games.

12.8
Disp · Overall
13.2
Disp · Away
1.4
Goals · Overall
2.2
Goals · Away

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Kai Lohmann recorded 15 disposals and 4 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans15454
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats16143
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS9233
7 Sep 24Carlton11252
24 Aug 24Essendon14343
17 Aug 24Collingwood12252
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS13044
4 Aug 24St Kilda14058
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS14122
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans14052
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 10.5 Over -182 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 9.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Marks 2.5 Over -204 ✗ MISS
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Goals — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Kai Lohmann (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Kai Lohmann is Over 10.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.6% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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