Oliver Wiltshire (Geelong Cats) Over 0.5 Goals (-125)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Wiltshire has been a reliable scorer away from home, and the numbers make a compelling case to back him to kick at least one goal against a leaky North Melbourne side. His L5 away average of 1.4 goals per game is well clear of this 0.5 line, and he's converting at an impressive 72% accuracy in those road games — nearly 20 points better than his overall rate — suggesting he's finding quality shots rather than rushed snaps. The model projects 1.1 goals, generating a 19.6% edge over the implied 55.6% probability baked into the $1.80 price. What really seals it is the streak: Wiltshire has cleared this line in four straight away games, going 4/4 in that split. With 2.0 shots at goal per away game and 4.6 score involvements, he's consistently in the right spots. The edge is real and the form backs it up.