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The latest Bet Better model pick for Alex Pearce is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 78 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 78%, implied 76%, edge +2.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 9, 6:47AM UTC
AFL

Alex Pearce

Fremantle

+2.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 2.5 -313 (1.32) · $100→$132
+2.1% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
78 in 100
Predicted
4.5 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 77.9% · the book's price implies 75.8% · gap +2.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks77.9%—75.8%1.28+2.1%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Alex Pearce Over 2.5 Marks (-312)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For Alex Pearce to grab over 2.5 marks tonight, he needs to find the ball in the right spots. He's been doing well lately, with a solid average of 2 contested marks, which is higher than usual. His ability to gain 194.5 metres shows he's not just marking but getting involved in the game, helping his chances to hit that mark count. The biggest risk here is that both teams could be closely matched, which might limit Pearce's opportunities. Still, with him being a strong performer and the stats leaning in his favor, this bet has a good chance of coming through. Fingers crossed for a solid showing from Pearce!

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Pick History & Track Record

Alex Pearce's lines for Fri 11 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Marks 2.5

Alex Pearce's marks line is 2.5.

Season averages (2024)

Alex Pearce averaged 11.7 disposals, 0.1 goals and 4.5 marks per game across 15 games in 2024.

11.7
Disposals
0.1
Goals
4.5
Marks
1.7
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Alex Pearce has cleared 9.5 disposals in 40% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.540%
o10.530%
o11.510%
o12.510%
o13.520%
o14.520%
o15.520%
o16.520%
o17.520%
o18.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Alex Pearce is averaging 9.0 disposals per game over his last 5.

9.0
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Jul 24 vs Melbourne), Alex Pearce recorded 9 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Jul 24Melbourne9031
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS3011
15 Jun 24Western Bulldogs9041
2 Jun 24Melbourne14052
24 May 24Collingwood15191
18 May 24St Kilda9014
10 May 24Sydney Swans13041
5 May 24Richmond9041
27 Apr 24Western Bulldogs11072
20 Apr 24West Coast Eagles170101
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Alex Pearce (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Alex Pearce is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.1% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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