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The latest Bet Better model pick for Alex Pearce is Over 8.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 48 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 48%, the price says 52%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 6, 12:17PM UTC
AFL

Alex Pearce

Fremantle

Value call

Alex Pearce (Fremantle) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 8.5 that pays $191 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 8.5 -110 (1.91) · $100→$191
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
48 in 100
Predicted
11.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 47.9% · before adjusting for past results 71.5% · the book's price implies 52.4% · gap -4.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.5%47.9%52.4%2.02+19.1%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Alex Pearce Over 8.5 Disposals (-110)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

At the MCG, Alex Pearce has shown he can get a lot of disposals lately. Our numbers suggest he's been on a roll, averaging around 12 disposals, which is way above the typical mark of just over five. He's also been strong in clearances, making it likely that he'll have plenty of opportunities to get his hands on the ball. The biggest risk here is that Fremantle might not have as much of the ball against Brisbane, which could limit Pearce's chances. Still, with his recent performance and the way he's been playing, betting on over 8.5 disposals seems like a solid choice. Just remember, there are no guarantees in sports!

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Alex Pearce averaged 11.7 disposals, 0.1 goals and 4.5 marks per game across 15 games in 2024.

11.7
Disposals
0.1
Goals
4.5
Marks
1.7
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Alex Pearce has cleared 9.5 disposals in 40% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.540%
o10.530%
o11.530%
o12.520%
o13.510%
o14.510%
o15.510%
o16.510%
o17.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Alex Pearce is averaging 9.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

9.6
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Jul 24 vs Melbourne), Alex Pearce recorded 9 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Jul 24Melbourne9031
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS3011
15 Jun 24Western Bulldogs9041
2 Jun 24Melbourne14052
24 May 24Collingwood15191
18 May 24St Kilda9014
10 May 24Sydney Swans13041
5 May 24Richmond9041
27 Apr 24Western Bulldogs11072
20 Apr 24West Coast Eagles170101
Quick answers:How many disposals does Alex Pearce average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Marks 1.5 Over -526 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Marks 2.5 Over -313 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Marks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Alex Pearce (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Alex Pearce is Over 8.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.1% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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