Gryan Miers (Geelong Cats) Over 0.5 Goals (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Miers looks a reasonable play to kick at least one here, with the model projecting 0.9 goals against a line of 0.5 — an 11.4% edge over the implied 52.6% probability baked into the $1.90. The key driver is his home form: across his last five home games he's averaging 0.6 goals from 1.2 shots at goal, but his overall L5 tells a better story — 0.8 goals per game from 2.0 shots, with a 20% goal accuracy and 0.8 marks inside 50. He's generating seven score involvements per game on average, meaning he's consistently in the action around goal. Richmond have been leaky defensively and GMHBA should suit a player who thrives on home turf. The hit streak being at zero is a mild flag, but the underlying volume metrics support the model's read. At $1.90, there's genuine value here worth a measured play.