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The latest Bet Better model pick for Gryan Miers is Under 24.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +19.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 9:48AM UTC
AFL

Gryan Miers

Geelong Cats

+19.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 24.5 -128 (1.78)
+19.6% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 26 Mar, 8:30AM
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Model Probability
75.8%
Implied Probability
56.2%
Model Edge
+19.6%
Predicted Value
21.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals75.8%—56.2%1.32+19.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Gryan Miers (Geelong Cats) Under 24.5 Disposals (-128)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Thursday's clash between the Geelong Cats and the Adelaide Crows, all signs point to Gryan Miers falling under 24.5 disposals. Despite his recent average of 21.8 disposals in home games, Miers has only managed 15.3 disposals against the Crows in their last five encounters. This suggests he may struggle to hit his average against this particular opponent. Additionally, with his average contested possessions sitting at 5.2 in home games, Miers may find it challenging to rack up the possessions in a contested battle. Considering his recent turnover average of 2 in home games, there's a risk of potential dispossession against the Adelaide pressure. The data indicates a probable under outcome for Miers this game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
70%hit L10 O 20.5
21avg disposals L5
Home21.8vs St Kilda20.2Season best29
O 18.580%
O 19.570%
O 20.570%
O 21.560%
O 22.550%
O 23.550%
Game log vs line (O 20.5)avg 19.2 · hi 27 · lo 14
15271521142314222120

Gryan Miers has gone over 20.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 21 disposals, best 29).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0avg goals L5
Home0vs St Kilda0Season best3
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.9 · hi 3 · lo 0
1100010132

Gryan Miers has gone over 0.5 goals in 0 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Mar 26 Adelaide Crows @ Geelong Cats Disposals 24.5 Under -128 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Gryan Miers (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Gryan Miers is Under 24.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.6% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 26 March at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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