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The latest Bet Better model pick for Zach Guthrie is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 63%, for a model edge of +11.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 9:52AM UTC
AFL

Zach Guthrie

Geelong Cats

+11.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -167 (1.60)
+11.3% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 16 Jul, 9:30AM
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Model Probability
73.8%
Implied Probability
62.5%
Model Edge
+11.3%
Predicted Value
17.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.8%—62.5%1.36+11.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Zach Guthrie (Geelong Cats) Over 14.5 Disposals (-167)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Zach Guthrie, the Cats' defensive linchpin, is poised to dominate in the upcoming clash against the Saints at GMHBA Stadium. Over his last five home games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging 18 disposals with a solid 77.0% disposal efficiency. Guthrie's ability to read the play is evident, tallying an average of 10.2 kicks and 7.8 handballs per game. Against St Kilda, he's maintained a consistent average of 18 disposals. With a knack for intercepting and gaining crucial meters, his recent form suggests he's primed to surpass the 14.5 disposals line set by the bookies. Guthrie's proficiency in contested possessions and knack for turning defense into attack makes him a strong bet to shine brightly in this upcoming home fixture.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
70%hit L10 O 12.5
12.6avg disposals L5
Home18vs St Kilda18.2Season best27
O 10.580%
O 11.580%
O 12.570%
O 13.570%
O 14.560%
O 15.560%
Game log vs line (O 12.5)avg 18.6 · hi 27 · lo 14
15181914162015242718

Zach Guthrie has gone over 12.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 12.6 disposals, best 27).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 11.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 12.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 13.5 Over -256 ✗ MISS
11 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals — — — Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Zach Guthrie (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zach Guthrie is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.3% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 16 July at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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