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The latest Bet Better model pick for Zach Guthrie is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 80 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 80%, implied 78%, edge +1.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 12:36PM UTC
AFL

Zach Guthrie

Geelong Cats

+1.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -357 (1.28) · $100→$128
+1.8% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
80 in 100
Predicted
17.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 79.9% · the book's price implies 78.1% · gap +1.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals79.9%—78.1%1.25+1.8%

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AI Analysis

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Zach Guthrie (Geelong Cats) Over 13.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to locking in a smart player prop bet, Zach Guthrie is a prime candidate to shine in the Geelong Cats vs. Essendon Bombers clash. At home in GMHBA Stadium, Guthrie has been a midfield maestro, averaging 16.4 disposals over his last 5 home games. Facing Essendon, he's even more prolific, notching an average of 18.5 disposals against them. His recent form is solid, with a standout disposalefficiency of 78.3% and an impressive 9.4 kicks per game. With a model prediction of 17.7 disposals and a favorable line of 13.5, Guthrie looks set to control the midfield once again. Backing him to surpass 13.5 disposals is a prudent move given his track record and the matchup dynamics.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Zach Guthrie averaged 18.2 disposals, 0.2 goals and 6.0 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

18.2
Disposals
0.2
Goals
6.0
Marks
2.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Zach Guthrie recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions18073
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide27093
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles240101
17 Aug 24St Kilda15034
10 Aug 24Fremantle200102
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows16031
27 Jul 24North Melbourne14064
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs19052
12 Jul 24Collingwood18081
6 Jul 24Hawthorn15062
Quick answers:How many disposals does Zach Guthrie average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals 13.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
16 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats Disposals 11.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Zach Guthrie (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zach Guthrie is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.8% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 8 August at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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