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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Zach Guthrie is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 56 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 56%, implied 65%, edge +5.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 15, 7:56AM UTC
AFL

Zach Guthrie

Geelong Cats

+5.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -182 (1.55) · $100→$155
+5.6% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
15.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.1% · the book's price implies 64.5% · gap +5.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.1%55.6%64.5%1.80+5.6%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Zach Guthrie Over 13.5 Disposals (-182)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle has been on a roll, winning 7 of their last 10 games and pulling ahead by nearly 29 points on average in their recent matches. That strong performance puts pressure on Geelong, who also have been doing well, especially at halftime. Zach Guthrie is a key player for Geelong, and with Fremantle's high-paced game, he should have plenty of chances to rack up disposals. Betting on Zach Guthrie to get over 13.5 disposals seems like a solid choice. He has been involved a lot in games, and given Fremantle's scoring strategy, it could lead to lots of action. The most concrete risk is that both teams are closely matched, which might limit his opportunities. Still, the numbers suggest he has a good chance to hit that mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)

Season averages (2024)

Zach Guthrie averaged 18.2 disposals, 0.2 goals and 6.0 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

18.2
Disposals
0.2
Goals
6.0
Marks
2.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Zach Guthrie recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions18073
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide27093
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles240101
17 Aug 24St Kilda15034
10 Aug 24Fremantle200102
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows16031
27 Jul 24North Melbourne14064
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs19052
12 Jul 24Collingwood18081
6 Jul 24Hawthorn15062
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 13.5 Over -182 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 12.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 11.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Marks Pending
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Zach Guthrie (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zach Guthrie is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.6% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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