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The latest Bet Better model pick for Zach Guthrie is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 80%, versus the book's implied 78%, for a model edge of +1.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 10:58AM UTC
AFL

Zach Guthrie

Geelong Cats

+1.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -357 (1.28)
+1.8% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
79.9%
Implied Probability
78.1%
Model Edge
+1.8%
Predicted Value
17.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals79.9%—78.1%1.25+1.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Zach Guthrie (Geelong Cats) Over 13.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to locking in a smart player prop bet, Zach Guthrie is a prime candidate to shine in the Geelong Cats vs. Essendon Bombers clash. At home in GMHBA Stadium, Guthrie has been a midfield maestro, averaging 16.4 disposals over his last 5 home games. Facing Essendon, he's even more prolific, notching an average of 18.5 disposals against them. His recent form is solid, with a standout disposalefficiency of 78.3% and an impressive 9.4 kicks per game. With a model prediction of 17.7 disposals and a favorable line of 13.5, Guthrie looks set to control the midfield once again. Backing him to surpass 13.5 disposals is a prudent move given his track record and the matchup dynamics.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Essendon BombersO 14.5 -238
13.6avg disposals L5
Home16.4vs Essendon19Season best27
O 12.570%
O 13.560%
O 14.540%
O 15.540%
O 16.540%
O 17.540%
Game log vs line (O 14.5)9 / 10 hit
15181914162015242718

Zach Guthrie has gone over 14.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 13.6 disposals, best 27). Current line: Over 14.5 at -238.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 11.5 Over -714 ✗ MISS
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 12.5 Over -455 ✗ MISS
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 13.5 Over -270 ✗ MISS
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
16 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
16 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Zach Guthrie (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zach Guthrie is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.8% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 8 August at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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