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AFL

Zach Guthrie

Geelong Cats

Value call

Zach Guthrie (Geelong Cats) has one live pick today: over 13.5 disposals that pays $156 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
56 in 100
Predicted
15.7 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 55.6% · before adjusting for past results 70.1% · the book's price implies 64.1% · gap -8.5%.

Latest Model PickFree
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 8:10 PM AEST
Zach Guthrie
over 13.5 disposals
Disposals Over 13.5 -179 (1.56) · $100→$156
Value call
LEANWins about 56 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$15.60 Odds-179
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Zach Guthrie is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 56 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 56%, the price says 64%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:13PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.1%55.6%64.1%1.80+6.0%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Zach Guthrie Over 13.5 Disposals (-185)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle is on a roll, winning 7 of their last 10 games and coming out 28.7 points ahead on average in their matches. But Geelong Cats have been tough too, especially with their solid first halves. Zach Guthrie has been consistently involved, averaging 21.5 contested possessions at GMHBA Stadium. Given the way he's performing, betting on Guthrie to get over 13.5 disposals seems like a smart move. He'll need to step up against Fremantle's strong form, but with his track record, it looks promising. The biggest risk is that Fremantle's defense can be tough to break through.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)

Season averages (2024)

Zach Guthrie averaged 18.2 disposals, 0.2 goals and 6.0 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

18.2
Disposals
0.2
Goals
6.0
Marks
2.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Zach Guthrie recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions18073
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide27093
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles240101
17 Aug 24St Kilda15034
10 Aug 24Fremantle200102
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows16031
27 Jul 24North Melbourne14064
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs19052
12 Jul 24Collingwood18081
6 Jul 24Hawthorn15062
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 13.5 Over -179 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 12.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Marks 3.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Zach Guthrie (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zach Guthrie is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.0% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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