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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mark Keane is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 68%, for a model edge of +5.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 8:21PM UTC
AFL

Mark Keane

Adelaide Crows

+5.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -213 (1.47) · $100→$147
+5.7% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Thu 23 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.7%
Implied Probability
68.0%
Model Edge
+5.7%
Predicted Value
17.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.7%—68.0%1.36+5.7%

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AI Analysis

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Mark Keane (Adelaide Crows) Over 14.5 Disposals (-213)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Mark Keane, the Irish dynamo donning the Adelaide Crows' colors, is poised to make waves at the Adelaide Oval against the Collingwood Magpies. Over his last five home clashes, Keane has been a midfield maestro, averaging a hefty 17.8 disposals per game. The stats paint a picture of dominance, with a knack for finding the footy and racking up 360.4 meters gained on average. Facing off against Collingwood, a team he's historically performed well against with an average of 19.5 disposals, Keane's track record solidifies his position as a prime candidate to surpass the 14.5 disposal line. With his recent form and history against the Magpies, all signs point to Keane snagging this bet with ease. It's time to trust in Keane's ability to split the middle and deliver for your disposal over bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
15.9avg disposals recent
Season best26
Disposals last 10avg 15.9 · hi 20 · lo 12
16141220141215182018

Mark Keane has a disposals high of 26 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 14.5 Over -213 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 13.5 Over -323 ✗ MISS
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 12.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending
11 Jun 26 Adelaide Crows @ Western Bulldogs Disposals — — — Pending
11 Jun 26 Adelaide Crows @ Western Bulldogs Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Mark Keane (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mark Keane is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.7% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows on Thursday 23 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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