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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mark Keane is Over 11.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 73%, the price says 82%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 8:47AM UTC
AFL

Mark Keane

Adelaide Crows

Value call

Mark Keane (Adelaide Crows) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 11.5 that pays $122 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 11.5 -455 (1.22) · $100→$122
Value call
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
16.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 73.4% · before adjusting for past results 85.7% · the book's price implies 82.0% · gap -8.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals85.7%73.4%82.0%1.36+3.7%

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Mark Keane Over 11.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Mark Keane has been doing well this season, and his stats show he's likely to get plenty of the ball. He's averaging much more than usual in disposals, which suggests he'll be involved a lot during the game against the Adelaide Crows. The Brisbane Lions are strong at home, and Keane has a good chance to go over 11.5 disposals, especially since our numbers rate him as a strong favorite for this pick. One risk to keep in mind is that the two teams are pretty close in skill, so a surprise could happen. Still, given how Keane has performed lately and his role in the Lions' game plan, this bet looks promising.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Mark Keane averaged 16.8 disposals, 0.0 goals and 5.4 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

16.8
Disposals
0.0
Goals
5.4
Marks
1.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (17 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Mark Keane recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide18040
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs20060
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats18040
28 Jul 24Hawthorn15041
19 Jul 24Essendon12021
13 Jul 24St Kilda14002
7 Jul 24Brisbane Lions20071
29 Jun 24GWS GIANTS12061
15 Jun 24Sydney Swans14070
6 Jun 24Richmond16042
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Kicks 9.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Marks 3.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 13.5 Over -179 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Marks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Mark Keane (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mark Keane is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.7% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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