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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Logan Morris is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 92%, versus the book's implied 72%, for a model edge of +19.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 11:03AM UTC
AFL

Logan Morris

Brisbane Lions

+19.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 1.5 -256 (1.39)
+19.8% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 1 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
91.8%
Implied Probability
71.9%
Model Edge
+19.8%
Predicted Value
2.6 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals91.8%71.9%1.09+19.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Logan Morris (Brisbane Lions) Over 1.5 Goals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Logan Morris is locked in to snag a couple of goals when the Brisbane Lions face off against the Carlton Blues. In his last five away games, Morris has been an offensive powerhouse, averaging a solid 3 goals per game. With an impressive 53.2% goal accuracy and an average of 6 shots at goal, he's a constant threat in the forward line. Additionally, his knack for getting involved in scores, averaging 9.2 score involvements, showcases his impact on the game. Facing Carlton, where he has historically averaged 2 goals in their last five matchups, Morris is poised to continue his scoring streak. Backing him to go over 1.5 goals against the Blues is a smart play given his recent form and historical performance against this opponent.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 1.5
1.8avg goals L5
Home2.2vs Hawthorn1.7Season best3
O 0.590%
O 1.560%
O 2.550%
O 3.510%
O 4.510%
O 5.510%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 1 · hi 2 · lo 0
0021012022

Logan Morris has gone over 1.5 goals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.8 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Goals 1.5 Over -256 ✗ MISS
26 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions Goals 1.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles Goals 1.5 Over -833 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Goals Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Goals Pending
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Goals Pending

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About This Player

Logan Morris (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Logan Morris is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.8% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues on Saturday 1 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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