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The latest Bet Better model pick for Logan Morris is Under 11.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 71%, implied 56%, edge +15.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 8, 12:35PM UTC
AFL

Logan Morris

Brisbane Lions

+15.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 11.5 -125 (1.80) · $100→$180
+15.9% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 5 Sep, 5:15AM
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
9.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.4% · the book's price implies 55.6% · gap +15.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.4%—55.6%1.40+15.9%

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions: Logan Morris Under 11.5 Disposals (-125)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Logan Morris has been a bit quiet lately, and his recent form suggests he might struggle against the Brisbane Lions. While the Sydney Swans have been solid overall, Morris isn't a big disposal getter, and we see a good chance for him to finish with under 11.5 disposals in this game. Both teams are strong, but the Lions have a tight defense that makes it tough for players to rack up big numbers. Plus, with how close the two sides are in contested possessions, Morris might not get as many opportunities as he needs. This bet carries a real risk since he could surprise us, but the signs point toward a lower total for him today.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Logan Morris averaged 8.2 disposals, 1.3 goals and 3.5 marks per game across 19 games in 2024.

8.2
Disposals
1.3
Goals
3.5
Marks
0.6
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Logan Morris has cleared 9.5 disposals in 70% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.570%
o10.570%
o11.570%
o12.540%
o13.520%
o14.520%
o16.50%
o17.50%
o18.50%
o19.50%
o20.50%
o21.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Logan Morris is averaging 11.2 disposals per game over his last 5 and 11.4 in away games, including his recent form against Sydney Swans.

11.2
Disp · Overall
11.4
Disp · Away
7.3
Disp · vs Sydney Swans
3.8
Goals · Overall
3.0
Goals · Away
2.3
Goals · vs Sydney Swans

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Logan Morris recorded 10 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans10261
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats6250
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS2000
7 Sep 24Carlton12240
24 Aug 24Essendon12150
17 Aug 24Collingwood10052
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS8142
4 Aug 24St Kilda8230
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS15050
14 Jul 24West Coast Eagles9020
Quick answers:How many disposals does Logan Morris average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals 11.5 Under -125 ✗ MISS
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Goals 1.5 Over -256 ✗ MISS
26 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions Goals 1.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles Goals — — — Pending
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Goals — — — Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Logan Morris (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Logan Morris is Under 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.9% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 5 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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