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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Logan Morris is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 92%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +3.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 9:45AM UTC
AFL

Logan Morris

Brisbane Lions

+3.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 1.5 -769 (1.13)
+3.3% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
91.8%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+3.3%
Predicted Value
2.6 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals91.8%88.5%1.09+3.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Logan Morris (Brisbane Lions) Over 1.5 Goals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fanatics, let's talk about Logan Morris and why he's primed to light up the scoreboard against the West Coast Eagles. In his last 5 away games, Morris has been a goal-scoring machine, averaging a stellar 3.6 goals per game. With an impressive goal accuracy of 60.3% and a knack for getting involved in the Lions' scoring plays (9.4 score involvements on average), Morris is a genuine offensive threat. Facing off against the Eagles, who've been conceding an average of 1.5 goals to individual players like Morris in their last 5 games, the stage is set for Logan to snag some goals. Add in his current hot streak of 3 consecutive games with over 1.5 goals when playing away, along with a perfect 5/5 hit rate in his last 5 games overall, and it's hard to ignore the momentum behind Morris finding the back of the net. So, buckle up and back Logan Morris to snag Over 1.5 goals in this showdown.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs West Coast EaglesO 1.5 -769+3.3% edge
80%hit L10 O 1.5
3.6avg goals L5
Away3.6vs West Coast Eagles1.5Season best3
O 1.580%
O 2.560%
O 3.530%
O 4.510%
O 5.510%
O 6.510%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)4 / 10 hit
0021012022

Logan Morris has gone over 1.5 goals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 3.6 goals, best 3). Current line: Over 1.5 at -769, model edge +3.3%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Brisbane Lions Goals 1.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Goals 1.5 Over -263 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Goals 1.5 Over -476 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Logan Morris (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Logan Morris is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.3% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles on Saturday 18 July at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.