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The latest Bet Better model pick for Hugh McCluggage is Over 22.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 82%, versus the book's implied 67%, for a model edge of +14.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC
AFL

Hugh McCluggage

Brisbane Lions

+14.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 22.5 -200 (1.50)
+14.9% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Barossa Park, Lyndoch, SA · Outdoor
Sat 11 Apr, 2:35AM
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Model Probability
81.5%
Implied Probability
66.7%
Model Edge
+14.9%
Predicted Value
27.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals81.5%—66.7%1.23+14.9%

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AI Analysis

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Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane Lions) Over 22.5 Disposals (-200)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to rack up the disposals, Hugh McCluggage stands out like a bright Sherrin on a clear day. His recent away form has been nothing short of impressive, averaging 27.8 disposals per game in the last five outings. Facing North Melbourne, a team he's historically performed well against, McCluggage's appetite for the footy is likely to be insatiable. With his slick 66.6% disposal efficiency and an average of 14.4 kicks and 13.4 handballs per away game, McCluggage has the tools to slice through the Kangaroos' defense like a seasoned sharpshooter. His meters gained stat is equally eye-catching at 400.6, showcasing his ability to drive his team forward. Considering his recent streaks and the model's projection of 27 disposals, taking the Over 22.5 disposals on McCluggage seems like a no-brainer play with a high probability of hitting.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
24.2avg disposals recent
Season best32
Disposals last 10avg 24.2 · hi 29 · lo 15
26222815262924242721

Hugh McCluggage has a disposals high of 32 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 22.5 Over -200 ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 21.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 20.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Hugh McCluggage is Over 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.9% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday 11 April at Barossa Park, Lyndoch. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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