Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
AFL

Hugh McCluggage

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: over 15.5 disposals that pays $147 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
63 in 100
Predicted
19.2 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 63.3% · before adjusting for past results 75.2% · the book's price implies 68.0% · gap -4.7%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 5:15 PM AEST
Hugh McCluggage
over 15.5 disposals
Disposals Over 15.5 -213 (1.47) · $100→$147
Value call
HIGHWins about 63 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$14.70 Odds-213
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Hugh McCluggage is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 63 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 63%, the price says 68%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 23, 5:58PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals75.2%63.3%68.0%1.58+7.2%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games4/10

See his full recent form

Unlock how often this player has landed over his last 3, 5, 10, 15 and 20 games — plus his current streak.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Hugh McCluggage Over 15.5 Disposals (-213)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Hugh McCluggage has been playing really well lately, and he's been getting a lot of disposals in his recent games. With the way he's been hitting the field, betting on him to get over 15.5 disposals against Hawthorn seems like a smart choice. His recent performances show he's capable of racking up the numbers. One concern is that both teams are quite competitive, so the game could be tightly contested. Still, McCluggage's strong form makes this bet feel promising. He's been a key player for Brisbane, and with the MCG crowd cheering, he might just shine bright.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Hugh McCluggage averaged 24.7 disposals, 0.7 goals and 5.3 marks per game across 27 games in 2024.

24.7
Disposals
0.7
Goals
5.3
Marks
3.7
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Hugh McCluggage has cleared 13.5 disposals in 80% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o13.580%
o14.580%
o16.540%
o18.530%
o19.530%
o21.530%
o23.510%
o24.510%
o26.510%
o28.510%
o29.50%
o31.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Hugh McCluggage is averaging 20.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

20.4
Disp · Overall
1.4
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Hugh McCluggage recorded 21 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans21156
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats27157
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS24045
7 Sep 24Carlton24068
24 Aug 24Essendon29063
17 Aug 24Collingwood26025
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS15041
4 Aug 24St Kilda28136
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS22265
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans26381
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 15.5 Over -213 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 14.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 13.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Clearances — — — Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Handballs — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Hugh McCluggage is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.2% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.