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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mark Blicavs is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 87%, versus the book's implied 82%, for a model edge of +5.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
AFL

Mark Blicavs

Geelong Cats

+5.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -455 (1.22)
+5.4% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 27 Sep, 4:30AM
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Model Probability
87.4%
Implied Probability
82.0%
Model Edge
+5.4%
Predicted Value
15.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals87.4%—82.0%1.14+5.4%

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AI Analysis

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Mark Blicavs (Geelong Cats) Over 9.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Mark Blicavs is poised to shine in disposals against the Brisbane Lions. With a model prediction of 15.2, boasting a 5.4% edge, and an implied probability of 82.0%, Blicavs' recent form is solid. In his last five home games, he has averaged 17.6 disposals, exceeding the set line of 9.5 comfortably. Notably, against the same opponent, he has averaged 16 disposals. His current hit streak of 12 at home and 2 overall, with a hit rate of 12/13, further solidify his consistency. Expect Blicavs to continue his impressive form, making the over 9.5 disposals bet a smart choice for this matchup at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
14avg disposals recent
Season best22
Disposals last 10avg 14 · hi 21 · lo 9
1612141017161021159

Mark Blicavs has a disposals high of 22 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Mark Blicavs (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mark Blicavs is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.4% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 27 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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