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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mark Blicavs is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 87 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 87%, implied 82%, edge +5.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 9:47PM UTC
AFL

Mark Blicavs

Geelong Cats

+5.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -455 (1.22) · $100→$122
+5.4% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 27 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
87 in 100
Predicted
15.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 87.4% · the book's price implies 82.0% · gap +5.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals87.4%—82.0%1.14+5.4%

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AI Analysis

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Mark Blicavs (Geelong Cats) Over 9.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Mark Blicavs is poised to shine in disposals against the Brisbane Lions. With a model prediction of 15.2, boasting a 5.4% edge, and an implied probability of 82.0%, Blicavs' recent form is solid. In his last five home games, he has averaged 17.6 disposals, exceeding the set line of 9.5 comfortably. Notably, against the same opponent, he has averaged 16 disposals. His current hit streak of 12 at home and 2 overall, with a hit rate of 12/13, further solidify his consistency. Expect Blicavs to continue his impressive form, making the over 9.5 disposals bet a smart choice for this matchup at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Mark Blicavs averaged 14.2 disposals, 0.2 goals and 3.2 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.

14.2
Disposals
0.2
Goals
3.2
Marks
3.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Mark Blicavs recorded 9 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions9122
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide15071
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles21062
17 Aug 24St Kilda10030
10 Aug 24Fremantle16055
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows17012
27 Jul 24North Melbourne10055
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs14026
12 Jul 24Collingwood12044
6 Jul 24Hawthorn16134
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Mark Blicavs (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mark Blicavs is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.4% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Saturday 27 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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