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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Mark Blicavs is Over 11.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 59 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 59%, the price says 64%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 22, 8:07PM UTC
AFL

Mark Blicavs

Geelong Cats

Value call

Mark Blicavs (Geelong Cats) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 11.5 that pays $157 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 11.5 -175 (1.57) · $100→$157
Value call
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
59 in 100
Predicted
14.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 58.8% · before adjusting for past results 70.4% · the book's price implies 63.7% · gap -4.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.4%58.8%63.7%1.70+6.7%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Mark Blicavs Over 11.5 Disposals (-175)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Mark Blicavs has been showing some solid form lately, making him a player to watch in this match-up. He has been racking up more clearances and marks inside 50 than usual, which suggests he's getting involved a lot during the game. This makes betting on him to have over 11.5 disposals seem like a smart move. However, the biggest risk here is that the game could be closely contested, meaning he might not get as many chances to gather disposals as expected. Still, with the way he's been playing and the stats backing him up, there's a good chance he'll hit that mark.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Mark Blicavs averaged 14.2 disposals, 0.2 goals and 3.2 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.

14.2
Disposals
0.2
Goals
3.2
Marks
3.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Mark Blicavs recorded 9 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions9122
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide15071
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles21062
17 Aug 24St Kilda10030
10 Aug 24Fremantle16055
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows17012
27 Jul 24North Melbourne10055
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs14026
12 Jul 24Collingwood12044
6 Jul 24Hawthorn16134
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 10.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Marks Pending
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Mark Blicavs (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mark Blicavs is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.7% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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