Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Over 22.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Max Holmes has cleared 22.5 disposals in each of his last 20 games — a perfect 20/20 hit rate — and away from home he's been just as reliable, going 8/8 in his last eight road trips. The model projects him for 28.9 disposals against this line of 22.5, a 6.4-disposal buffer that's hard to ignore. His L5 away average of 26.6 disposals underpins that projection, built on a healthy blend of 14.2 kicks and 12.4 handballs per game, with 467 metres gained suggesting he's genuinely moving the footy rather than padding stats in the back half of blowouts. The 1.8% model edge at 88.5% implied probability won't excite value hunters at $1.13, but when a line sits this far below a player's floor — not just his ceiling — the edge is real. Holmes is the kind of accumulator leg you can trust the numbers on.