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The latest Bet Better model pick for Max Holmes is Over 1.5 on Tackles.
On Tackles, our numbers say this bet wins about 69 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 69%, the price says 80%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 10:36AM UTC
AFL

Max Holmes

Geelong Cats

Value call

Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) has one live pick today: Tackles Over 1.5 that pays $125 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Tackles Over 1.5 -400 (1.25) · $100→$125
Value call
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
69 in 100
Predicted
3.6 Tackles
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 68.8% · before adjusting for past results 81.9% · the book's price implies 80.0% · gap -11.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Tackles81.9%68.8%80.0%1.45+1.9%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Max Holmes Over 1.5 Tackles (-400)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Max Holmes has been playing really well lately, and he's shown he can rack up tackles. With the game at Optus Stadium, he has the home crowd behind him, which can give him an extra boost. Our numbers suggest he's a strong favorite to go over 1.5 tackles, especially since he has been consistently getting more than that. One thing to keep in mind is that the Fremantle Dockers and Geelong Cats are pretty evenly matched, so it could be a tough game. However, Holmes has been putting in the effort and should have plenty of chances to make those tackles. This makes it a solid pick for today.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Max Holmes averaged 24.2 disposals, 0.5 goals and 5.6 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

24.2
Disposals
0.5
Goals
5.6
Marks
3.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Max Holmes recorded 20 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions20042
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide28083
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles26180
17 Aug 24St Kilda22042
10 Aug 24Fremantle20033
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows20034
27 Jul 24North Melbourne22155
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs23071
12 Jul 24Collingwood27093
6 Jul 24Hawthorn17072
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 17.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Clearances 2.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Handballs 7.5 Over -313 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Tackles — — — Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Kicks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Max Holmes is Over 1.5 on Tackles. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.9% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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