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AFL

Max Holmes

Geelong Cats

+17.7% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Under 29.5 -110 (1.91)
+17.7% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong
Fri 17 Apr, 9:20AM
Model Probability
70.1%
Implied Probability
52.4%
Model Edge
+17.7%
Predicted Value
26.9 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) Under 29.5 Disposals (-110)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Max Holmes' recent form at home, it's clear he's been a solid contributor for the Geelong Cats. However, his average of 30.2 disposals over the last 5 home games might be a tad inflated. With the line set at 29.5 disposals against the Western Bulldogs, there's a compelling case to back the under. In his last 5 outings at GMHBA Stadium, Holmes has only managed 24 disposals against the Bulldogs on average. Additionally, his disposals efficiency sits at 72.1%, indicating he's been efficient but might not hit the high volume needed to surpass the line. Combine this with his recent turnover average of 6.4 and the under begins to look like the smart play. Holmes might still impact the game, but the numbers suggest he could fall just short of the 29.5 mark this time around.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (4 picks) 50.0% (2/4)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Mar 26 Geelong Cats @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 27.5 Under -120 ✗ MISS
27 Sep 25 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 19.5 Over -714 ✗ MISS
27 Sep 25 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 23.5 Over -122 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 25 Hawthorn Hawks @ Geelong Cats Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 4 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 50.0% (2/4). The latest model pick for Max Holmes is Under 29.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.7% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Geelong Cats on Friday 17 April at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.