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AFL

Max Holmes

Geelong Cats

Value call

Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) has one live pick today: over 18.5 disposals that pays $125 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
84 in 100
Predicted
30.3 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 84.0% · before adjusting for past results 98.7% · the book's price implies 80.0% · gap +4.0%.

Latest Model PickFree
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 8:10 PM AEST
Max Holmes
over 18.5 disposals
Disposals Over 18.5 -400 (1.25) · $100→$125
Value call
HIGHWins about 84 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$12.50 Odds-400
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Max Holmes is Over 18.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 84 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 84%, the price says 80%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 5:48PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals98.7%84.0%80.0%1.19+19.7%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Max Holmes Over 18.5 Disposals (-400)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle has been really strong lately, winning seven of their last ten games and scoring an average of nearly 29 points ahead in their recent matches. They have shown they can rack up points quickly, especially before halftime. Geelong Cats, on the other hand, have also been doing well but are not quite hitting the same highs as Fremantle in terms of overall performance. Max Holmes has been solid at GMHBA Stadium, averaging a good number of disposals and showing he can get involved in plays. With Fremantle's current form and Holmes' ability to contribute, betting on him to get over 18.5 disposals looks promising. However, the Cats' strength at quarter-time could be a challenge for him.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Max Holmes averaged 24.2 disposals, 0.5 goals and 5.6 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

24.2
Disposals
0.5
Goals
5.6
Marks
3.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Max Holmes recorded 20 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions20042
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide28083
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles26180
17 Aug 24St Kilda22042
10 Aug 24Fremantle20033
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows20034
27 Jul 24North Melbourne22155
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs23071
12 Jul 24Collingwood27093
6 Jul 24Hawthorn17072
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 17.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Handballs 7.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Clearances 2.5 Over -313 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Kicks — — — Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Max Holmes (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Max Holmes is Over 18.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.7% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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