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The latest Bet Better model pick for Oscar McDonald is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 79 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 79%, the price says 65%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 21, 4:02PM UTC
AFL

Oscar McDonald

Fremantle

Value call

Oscar McDonald (Fremantle) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 9.5 that pays $154 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -185 (1.54) · $100→$154
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Mar 2022). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
79 in 100
Predicted
13.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 78.9% · the book's price implies 64.9% · gap +14.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals78.9%—64.9%1.27+14.0%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Oscar McDonald Over 9.5 Disposals (-185)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For Oscar McDonald to go over 9.5 disposals tonight, he needs to be involved in the action and get his hands on the ball a lot. Fremantle has won 7 of their last 10 games, showing they can compete well, which could lead to more opportunities for McDonald. Plus, he's on a team that averages almost 45 points before half-time, suggesting they start strong and keep the pressure on. Brisbane Lions also have a great record, winning 9 of their last 10, so this game could be close. The biggest risk here is how evenly matched both teams are, which means McDonald might not always get the chances he needs. Still, with Fremantle's recent form, he has a good shot at hitting that target.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Oscar McDonald's lines for Sat 26 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 9.5

Oscar McDonald's disposals line is 9.5.

Disposals 10.5

Oscar McDonald's disposals line is 10.5.

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Oscar McDonald has cleared 9.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.590%
o10.570%
o11.560%
o12.550%
o13.530%
o14.520%
o15.520%
o16.520%
o17.510%
o18.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Oscar McDonald is averaging 12.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

12.6
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (17 Mar 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Oscar McDonald recorded 10 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
17 Mar 24Brisbane Lions10031
24 Mar 22Western Bulldogs9040
17 Mar 22Richmond15060
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 10.5 Over -250 ✗ MISS
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 9.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 10.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Oscar McDonald (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Oscar McDonald is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.0% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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