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AFL

Oscar McDonald

Fremantle

Value call

Oscar McDonald (Fremantle) has one live pick today: over 10.5 disposals that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
13.2 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 72.1% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +18.9%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 2:30 PM AEST
Oscar McDonald
over 10.5 disposals
Disposals Over 10.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
HIGHWins about 72 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.80 Odds-114
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Oscar McDonald is Over 10.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 72%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 12, 10:36PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Mar 2022). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.1%—53.2%1.39+18.9%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Oscar McDonald Over 10.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For Oscar McDonald to get over 10.5 disposals tonight, he'll need to be active and involved in the game. Fremantle has been getting the ball inside 50 more often than Brisbane lately, which could mean more chances for McDonald to rack up those disposals. Plus, Fremantle's ruckmen are winning a lot of taps, giving their midfielders a better chance to get the ball flowing his way. However, Fremantle does lose the contested ball slightly, so that could make things tougher for McDonald if Brisbane's players are on their game. Even with that risk, the way Fremantle plays could give McDonald plenty of opportunities to hit that target. It looks like a good chance for him to shine tonight!

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Pick History & Track Record

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Oscar McDonald has cleared 9.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.590%
o10.570%
o11.560%
o12.550%
o13.530%
o14.520%
o15.520%
o16.520%
o17.510%
o18.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Oscar McDonald is averaging 12.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

12.6
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (17 Mar 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Oscar McDonald recorded 10 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
17 Mar 24Brisbane Lions10031
24 Mar 22Western Bulldogs9040
17 Mar 22Richmond15060
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 10.5 Over -114 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 9.5 Over -185 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Marks 3.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Oscar McDonald (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Oscar McDonald is Over 10.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.9% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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