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AFL

Tom Stewart

Geelong Cats

Value call

Tom Stewart (Geelong Cats) has one live pick today: over 18.5 disposals that pays $161 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
56 in 100
Predicted
21.5 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 56.2% · before adjusting for past results 71.5% · the book's price implies 62.1% · gap -5.9%.

Latest Model PickFree
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 8:10 PM AEST
Tom Stewart
over 18.5 disposals
Disposals Over 18.5 -164 (1.61) · $100→$161
Value call
LEANWins about 56 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$16.10 Odds-164
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Stewart is Over 18.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 56 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 56%, the price says 62%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:11PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.5%56.2%62.1%1.78+9.4%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Tom Stewart Over 18.5 Disposals (-164)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle has been on a roll, winning 7 of their last 10 games, and they often score big. However, Geelong Cats also have a strong track record, averaging a solid 55.7 points before half-time in their last 12 matches. This matchup is a bit tricky since both teams know how to rack up points quickly. Tom Stewart is a key player here, and betting on him to get over 18.5 disposals feels promising. He's been consistent with his performance, averaging 18.6 disposals at home. The risk is that he tends to have fewer clearances at home compared to away games, which could limit his chances. Still, with these numbers, it seems like a good opportunity to back Stewart on this bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Tom Stewart averaged 21.5 disposals, 0.0 goals and 6.1 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

21.5
Disposals
0.0
Goals
6.1
Marks
3.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Tom Stewart recorded 22 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions22052
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles11020
17 Aug 24St Kilda21045
10 Aug 24Fremantle19071
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows28055
27 Jul 24North Melbourne32091
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs26185
12 Jul 24Collingwood26094
6 Jul 24Hawthorn260115
29 Jun 24Essendon23085
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 18.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 17.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tom Stewart (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Stewart is Over 18.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.4% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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