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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Stewart is Under 22.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +19.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 10:57AM UTC
AFL

Tom Stewart

Geelong Cats

+19.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 22.5 -111 (1.90)
+19.6% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 30 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.2%
Implied Probability
52.6%
Model Edge
+19.6%
Predicted Value
19.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.2%52.6%1.38+19.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Tom Stewart (Geelong Cats) Under 22.5 Disposals (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking ahead to the Collingwood vs. Geelong clash, the spotlight falls on Tom Stewart. Despite his recent form showing promise with an average of 21.6 disposals in away games, Stewart faces a tough challenge against Collingwood, a team he historically averages 18 disposals against. His last five games paint a picture of inconsistency, with turnovers averaging 4.2 per game. With the line set at 22.5 disposals, there's a compelling case for Stewart to fall short. His contested possessions sit at 8.4, suggesting he may struggle against Collingwood's pressure. Add in his turnover rate, and the Under looks like a savvy play for this matchup at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
23avg disposals L5
Home19.8vs Essendon21.6Season best32
O 20.570%
O 21.560%
O 22.540%
O 23.540%
O 24.540%
O 25.510%
Game log vs line (O 22.5)avg 23.4 · hi 32 · lo 11
23262626322819211122

Tom Stewart has gone over 22.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 23 disposals, best 32).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 22.5 Under -111 ✗ MISS
06 Mar 26 Geelong Cats @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 21.5 Under -123 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Tom Stewart (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Stewart is Under 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.6% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Collingwood Magpies on Thursday 30 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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