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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Stewart is Under 22.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 53%, edge +19.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 12:34PM UTC
AFL

Tom Stewart

Geelong Cats

+19.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 22.5 -111 (1.90) · $100→$190
+19.6% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 30 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
19.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.2% · the book's price implies 52.6% · gap +19.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.2%52.6%1.38+19.6%

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AI Analysis

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Tom Stewart (Geelong Cats) Under 22.5 Disposals (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking ahead to the Collingwood vs. Geelong clash, the spotlight falls on Tom Stewart. Despite his recent form showing promise with an average of 21.6 disposals in away games, Stewart faces a tough challenge against Collingwood, a team he historically averages 18 disposals against. His last five games paint a picture of inconsistency, with turnovers averaging 4.2 per game. With the line set at 22.5 disposals, there's a compelling case for Stewart to fall short. His contested possessions sit at 8.4, suggesting he may struggle against Collingwood's pressure. Add in his turnover rate, and the Under looks like a savvy play for this matchup at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Tom Stewart averaged 21.5 disposals, 0.0 goals and 6.1 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

21.5
Disposals
0.0
Goals
6.1
Marks
3.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Tom Stewart recorded 22 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions22052
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles11020
17 Aug 24St Kilda21045
10 Aug 24Fremantle19071
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows28055
27 Jul 24North Melbourne32091
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs26185
12 Jul 24Collingwood26094
6 Jul 24Hawthorn260115
29 Jun 24Essendon23085
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals Pending
06 Mar 26 Geelong Cats @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Tom Stewart (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Stewart is Under 22.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.6% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Collingwood Magpies on Thursday 30 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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