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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Stewart is Under 21.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 57%, versus the book's implied 55%, for a model edge of +2.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 9:48AM UTC
AFL

Tom Stewart

Geelong Cats

+2.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 21.5 -123 (1.81)
+2.0% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Fri 6 Mar, 9:05AM
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Model Probability
57.3%
Implied Probability
55.2%
Model Edge
+2.0%
Predicted Value
20.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals57.3%55.2%1.75+2.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Tom Stewart (Geelong Cats) Under 21.5 Disposals (-123)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to locking in a player prop bet, you want a sure thing. Tom Stewart, the defensive linchpin for the Geelong Cats, might not be the flashiest player on the field, but his consistency is as reliable as a metronome. Looking at his recent form, Stewart has been averaging around 22.6 disposals per game when playing away, a hair above the line set at 21.5. However, facing the Gold Coast Suns, who he's historically averaged 24.3 disposals against, might seem like a green light to bet the over. But here's the twist – the Suns have been tightening up their defense. With Stewart's disposal efficiency at 92.0%, expect him to be more selective in his touches, potentially falling just short of that 21.5 line. Betting the under on Stewart's disposals could be the savvy move here, backed by his recent form and the evolving dynamics of this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 19.5
19.4avg disposals L5
Home18.4vs St Kilda17.4Season best32
O 17.560%
O 18.550%
O 19.550%
O 20.550%
O 21.540%
O 22.530%
Game log vs line (O 19.5)avg 23.4 · hi 32 · lo 11
23262626322819211122

Tom Stewart has gone over 19.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 19.4 disposals, best 32).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Mar 26 Geelong Cats @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 21.5 Under -123 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Tom Stewart (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Stewart is Under 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.0% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Gold Coast Suns on Friday 6 March at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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