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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Stewart is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 66 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 66%, implied 80%, edge +2.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 15, 7:54AM UTC
AFL

Tom Stewart

Geelong Cats

+2.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -400 (1.25) · $100→$125
+2.7% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
83 in 100
Predicted
21.5 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 82.7% · the book's price implies 80.0% · gap +2.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.7%66.1%80.0%1.51+2.7%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats: Tom Stewart Over 16.5 Disposals (-400)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle has been on fire lately, winning seven of their last ten games and dominating by almost 29 points on average in their recent matches. However, Geelong Cats have shown they can score big too, especially before half-time, averaging nearly 56 points during this stretch. Tom Stewart has been a key player for Geelong, and his performance could really make a difference in this matchup. Betting on Tom Stewart to get over 16.5 disposals looks like a solid choice. The one worry is that Geelong has lost some games without him, but he's proven he can impact the game when he plays. Expect him to step up and help his team keep pace with Fremantle.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Tom Stewart averaged 21.5 disposals, 0.0 goals and 6.1 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

21.5
Disposals
0.0
Goals
6.1
Marks
3.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Tom Stewart recorded 22 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions22052
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles11020
17 Aug 24St Kilda21045
10 Aug 24Fremantle19071
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows28055
27 Jul 24North Melbourne32091
20 Jul 24Western Bulldogs26185
12 Jul 24Collingwood26094
6 Jul 24Hawthorn260115
29 Jun 24Essendon23085
Quick answers:How many disposals does Tom Stewart average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 18.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 17.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tom Stewart (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Stewart is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.7% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 11 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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