Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jeremy Cameron is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 80 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 80%, implied 75%, edge +4.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 9:05AM UTC
AFL
Jeremy Cameron
Geelong Cats
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 1.5
-303 (1.33) · $100→$133
+4.4% Edge
Geelong Cats
@
Greater Western Sydney Giants
ENGIE Stadium, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 11 Jul, 6:15AM
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 16°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
80 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 79.6% · the book's price implies 75.2% · gap +4.4%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 79.6% | — | 75.2% | 1.26 | +4.4% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 0/3 |
| Last 5 games | 2/5 |
| Last 10 games | 6/10 |
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Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats) Over 1.5 Goals (-303)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jeremy Cameron returning to ENGIE Stadium to face his former club is the kind of matchup the model loves. His L5 away games average of 2.4 goals sits comfortably clear of the 1.5 line, and his 4/5 hit rate in away games over the same stretch gives that projection real substance. The model lands at 2.2 goals with a 4.4% edge over the implied 75.2% probability baked into the $1.33 — not enormous, but meaningful at a short price. What sharpens the case further is his L5 away shots at goal average of 4.4, paired with 2.4 marks inside 50 — he's consistently getting into scoring positions on the road. His head-to-head away record against GWS is even stronger at 3.0 goals per game across the last five. At 45.3% goal accuracy in away games, Cameron is converting at a healthy clip when the chances come.
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Season averages (2024)
Jeremy Cameron averaged 16.3 disposals, 2.7 goals and 6.0 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.
Hit-rate ladder: Goals Scored
Jeremy Cameron has cleared 0.5 goals scored in 60% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.
o0.560%
o1.550%
o2.540%
o3.510%
o4.50%
o5.50%
o6.50%
Home / away and opponent splits
Jeremy Cameron is averaging 12.8 disposals per game over his last 5, including his recent form against Carlton.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Jeremy Cameron recorded 17 disposals and 2 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 21 Sep 24 | Brisbane Lions | 17 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 5 Sep 24 | Port Adelaide | 19 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 Aug 24 | West Coast Eagles | 14 | 9 | 9 | 1 |
| 17 Aug 24 | St Kilda | 16 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| 10 Aug 24 | Fremantle | 14 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 3 Aug 24 | Adelaide Crows | 17 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| 27 Jul 24 | North Melbourne | 19 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
| 20 Jul 24 | Western Bulldogs | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 Jul 24 | Collingwood | 9 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 6 Jul 24 | Hawthorn | 19 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jeremy Cameron is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.4% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Saturday 11 July at ENGIE Stadium, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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