Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats) Over 1.5 Goals (-303)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jeremy Cameron returning to ENGIE Stadium to face his former club is the kind of matchup the model loves. His L5 away games average of 2.4 goals sits comfortably clear of the 1.5 line, and his 4/5 hit rate in away games over the same stretch gives that projection real substance. The model lands at 2.2 goals with a 4.4% edge over the implied 75.2% probability baked into the $1.33 — not enormous, but meaningful at a short price. What sharpens the case further is his L5 away shots at goal average of 4.4, paired with 2.4 marks inside 50 — he's consistently getting into scoring positions on the road. His head-to-head away record against GWS is even stronger at 3.0 goals per game across the last five. At 45.3% goal accuracy in away games, Cameron is converting at a healthy clip when the chances come.