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The latest Bet Better model pick for Oscar Allen is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 61%, the price says 61%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 6, 12:19PM UTC
AFL

Oscar Allen

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Oscar Allen (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: Marks Over 2.5 that pays $164 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 2.5 -156 (1.64) · $100→$164
Value call
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
61 in 100
Predicted
3.8 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 60.8% · before adjusting for past results 72.6% · the book's price implies 61.0% · gap -0.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks72.6%60.8%61.0%1.65+11.6%

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Oscar Allen Over 2.5 Marks (-156)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For Oscar Allen to get over 2.5 marks tonight, he needs to find the ball and catch it a few times. Brisbane Lions have been on fire, winning 9 of their last 10 games and scoring an average of 49.9 points before half-time. This strong performance means there will likely be plenty of opportunities for Allen to rack up marks. Adelaide Crows have also been doing well with 7 wins in their last 10 games, so they won't make it easy. The most concrete risk is how close their stats are, as both teams have been performing similarly lately. Still, with Brisbane's recent dominance, Allen should have a good shot at exceeding that mark tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 4(75%)

Season averages (2024)

Oscar Allen averaged 9.5 disposals, 1.8 goals and 4.7 marks per game across 11 games in 2024.

9.5
Disposals
1.8
Goals
4.7
Marks
1.2
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Goals Scored

Oscar Allen has cleared 0.5 goals scored in 70% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o0.570%
o1.540%
o2.530%
o3.520%
o4.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Oscar Allen is averaging 6.4 disposals per game over his last 5 and 7.6 in away games.

6.4
Disp · Overall
7.6
Disp · Away
2.0
Goals · Overall
2.0
Goals · Away

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Geelong Cats), Oscar Allen recorded 4 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Geelong Cats4131
18 Aug 24Carlton9020
10 Aug 24North Melbourne14551
2 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS15253
27 Jul 24Fremantle7123
20 Jul 24St Kilda11260
14 Jul 24Brisbane Lions7341
7 Jul 24Melbourne10461
30 Jun 24Hawthorn6061
23 Jun 24Essendon13291
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Marks 2.5 Over -156 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Marks 1.5 Over -556 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Goals 0.5 Over -588 ✗ MISS
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Oscar Allen (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Oscar Allen is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.6% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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