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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Oscar Allen is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 87%, versus the book's implied 83%, for a model edge of +3.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 31, 3:35AM UTC
AFL

Oscar Allen

Brisbane Lions

+3.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -500 (1.20)
+3.7% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 1 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
87.1%
Implied Probability
83.3%
Model Edge
+3.7%
Predicted Value
1.4 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals87.1%83.3%1.15+3.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Oscar Allen (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-500)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Oscar Allen's recent form, it's clear he's in red-hot goal-scoring shape. With an average of 1.4 goals per game over his last five away matches, he's been a consistent threat in front of the big sticks. Not only has he been finding the goals at an impressive rate, but his accuracy sits at a solid 55.3%, ensuring he makes his shots count. Allen's ability to impact the scoreboard is further highlighted by his average of 4.2 score involvements per game. He's been getting involved in the attacking plays consistently, making him a key player for the Brisbane Lions. With a streak of 4 consecutive away games hitting the back of the net and an overall hit rate of 7 goals in his last 7 matches, Allen is poised to snag at least one goal against Carlton. Betting on him to score over 0.5 goals seems like a smart move given his current form and scoring prowess.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs CarltonO 0.5 -500+3.7% edge
80%hit L10 O 0.5
2avg goals L5
Away1.4vs Carlton0.6Season best5
O 0.580%
O 1.540%
O 2.530%
O 3.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)8 / 10 hit
2043212501

Oscar Allen has gone over 0.5 goals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 2 goals, best 5). Current line: Over 0.5 at -500, model edge +3.7%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Oscar Allen (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Oscar Allen is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues on Saturday 1 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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