Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Shai Bolton is Over 7.5 on Handballs.
On Handballs, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 74%, the price says 64%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 5:36PM UTC
AFL

Shai Bolton

Fremantle

Value call

Shai Bolton (Fremantle) has one live pick today: Handballs Over 7.5 that pays $156 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Handballs Over 7.5 -179 (1.56) · $100→$156
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
9.8 Handballs
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 74.2% · the book's price implies 64.1% · gap +10.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Handballs74.2%64.1%1.35+10.1%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Shai Bolton Over 7.5 Handballs (-179)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle has been on a solid run, winning seven of their last ten games, and they often put up strong scores before halftime, averaging over 44 points. Shai Bolton is a key player for them, and with both teams in good form, this match could see plenty of action. The bet on Bolton to make over 7.5 handballs looks promising since both teams are likely to keep the pressure on each other. However, the match is expected to be tight, and Brisbane Lions have also won nine of their last ten, often scoring high too. If Bolton doesn't get enough opportunities to pass, it could be a tough road to reach that number. Still, with the way both teams are playing, this bet has a good chance of coming through.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)

Shai Bolton's lines for Sat 26 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Handballs 7.5

Shai Bolton's handballs line is 7.5.

Disposals 19.5

Shai Bolton's disposals line is 19.5.

Disposals 18.5

Shai Bolton's disposals line is 18.5.

Disposals 17.5

Shai Bolton's disposals line is 17.5.

Disposals 15.5

Shai Bolton's disposals line is 15.5.

Season averages (2024)

Shai Bolton averaged 16.8 disposals, 1.5 goals and 3.8 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

16.8
Disposals
1.5
Goals
3.8
Marks
2.6
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Shai Bolton has cleared 14.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o14.5100%
o15.5100%
o17.570%
o19.560%
o20.540%
o22.530%
o24.520%
o25.520%
o27.50%
o29.50%
o30.50%
o32.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Shai Bolton is averaging 22.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

22.2
Disp · Overall
1.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Shai Bolton recorded 13 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS13173
18 Aug 24Hawthorn12313
11 Aug 24St Kilda11212
3 Aug 24North Melbourne12123
28 Jul 24Collingwood21022
20 Jul 24Port Adelaide17112
14 Jul 24GWS GIANTS18212
6 Jul 24Fremantle16472
30 Jun 24Carlton17021
15 Jun 24Hawthorn15124
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Marks 1.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 18.5 Over -217 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 17.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Handballs Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Marks Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Shai Bolton (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Shai Bolton is Over 7.5 on Handballs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.1% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.