Shai Bolton (Fremantle) Over 20.5 Disposals (-145)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Bolton's home form is the headline here. Over his last five games at Optus Stadium he's averaging 24.8 disposals — a full 4.3 ahead of this 20.5 line — and he's cleared it in four of those five outings. The model projects 23.5 disposals, generating a 13.6% edge against the implied 59.2% probability baked into the $1.69. That's a meaningful gap worth acting on.
What underpins the projection is the quality of his home work, not just the volume. He's generating 471 metres gained per game at home versus 369 overall, collecting 24.8 touches on a healthy 74.5% efficiency across 12 kicks and 12.8 handballs — a balanced ball-user who doesn't inflate his numbers with cheap possessions. The Sydney matchup is a slight concern given his 22-disposal L5 average against them, but the home ground advantage at Optus Stadium is a genuine differentiator for Bolton. Solid edge.