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The latest Bet Better model pick for Shai Bolton is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 92%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +4.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 7:28PM UTC
AFL

Shai Bolton

Fremantle

+4.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -714 (1.14) · $100→$114
+4.4% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
92.1%
Implied Probability
87.7%
Model Edge
+4.4%
Predicted Value
23.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals92.1%87.7%1.09+4.4%

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AI Analysis

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Shai Bolton (Fremantle) Over 16.5 Disposals (-714)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to the upcoming clash between the Melbourne Demons and the Fremantle Dockers at the MCG, keep a close eye on Shai Bolton. The dynamic midfielder has been a consistent ball magnet in his last five away games, averaging an impressive 24.4 disposals. Bolton's recent form against Melbourne and overall season averages suggest he's more than capable of surpassing the 16.5 disposal line. With a stellar contested possession rate of 8.6 and a knack for gaining meters (367.8 avg), Bolton is poised to make a significant impact on the game. Add in his exceptional disposal efficiency (75.0%) and the fact that he's currently riding a hot streak of 13 consecutive games hitting the mark, betting on Bolton to go over 16.5 disposals seems like a solid play with a high probability of success.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
15.2avg disposals recent
Season best25
Disposals last 10avg 15.2 · hi 21 · lo 11
15171618172112111213

Shai Bolton has a disposals high of 25 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.5avg goals recent
Season best4
Goals last 10avg 1.5 · hi 4 · lo 0
1042101231

Shai Bolton has a goals high of 4 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 16.5 Over -714 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 17.5 Over -500 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 18.5 Over -333 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Shai Bolton (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Shai Bolton is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.4% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 8 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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