Shai Bolton (Fremantle) Over 0.5 Goals (-159)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Bolton is one of the more reliable goal-kickers in this market right now, and the numbers back that up emphatically. He's hit this line in six straight overall and 10 of his last 12 away games — a 83% away hit rate that makes the bookmaker's implied probability of 61.3% look genuinely soft. The model projects him at 0.8 goals against a line of 0.5, generating a 2.1% edge at $1.63, which is a meaningful gap when the underlying form is this consistent.
What's particularly encouraging is his away-specific profile against Carlton — he's averaging 1.5 goals in his last five trips to face them, well clear of his general away average of 0.8. His 1.4 shots at goal per away game and 50% goal accuracy away suggest he's converting when he gets his chances. With a six-game overall streak running, Bolton looks well-placed to kick through the big sticks here.