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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tanner Bruhn is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 68%, for a model edge of +4.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 22, 9:23AM UTC
AFL

Tanner Bruhn

Geelong Cats

+4.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -213 (1.47)
+4.1% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 2 Jul, 9:30AM
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Model Probability
72.1%
Implied Probability
68.0%
Model Edge
+4.1%
Predicted Value
20.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.1%—68.0%1.39+4.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Tanner Bruhn (Geelong Cats) Over 17.5 Disposals (-213)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Tanner Bruhn of the Geelong Cats is a prime target for hitting over 17.5 disposals against the Brisbane Lions at GMHBA Stadium. In his last five home games, Bruhn has been a consistent ball magnet, averaging a solid 18.4 disposals. With a knack for finding the footy, his recent form shows he can capitalize on his opportunities, especially against the Lions whom he's previously averaged 16.2 disposals against. Bruhn's ability to cover the ground efficiently, gaining an average of 251.4 meters per game, and his high disposal efficiency of 73.2% make him a reliable choice to exceed the 17.5 line. Backing Bruhn to shine in front of the home fans is a smart play given his recent consistency and matchup history.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 18.5
19avg disposals L5
Away20.8vs Melbourne16.7Season best27
O 16.560%
O 17.560%
O 18.560%
O 19.560%
O 20.560%
O 21.560%
Game log vs line (O 18.5)avg 16.5 · hi 26 · lo 4
1121261316234231810

Tanner Bruhn has gone over 18.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 19 disposals, best 27).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 17.5 Over -213 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 16.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 15.5 Over -455 ✗ MISS
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tanner Bruhn (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tanner Bruhn is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.1% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 2 July at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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