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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tanner Bruhn is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 68%, for a model edge of +4.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 1:42PM UTC
AFL

Tanner Bruhn

Geelong Cats

+4.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -213 (1.47) · $100→$147
+4.1% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 2 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 16°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.1%
Implied Probability
68.0%
Model Edge
+4.1%
Predicted Value
20.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.1%—68.0%1.39+4.1%

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AI Analysis

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Tanner Bruhn (Geelong Cats) Over 17.5 Disposals (-213)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Tanner Bruhn of the Geelong Cats is a prime target for hitting over 17.5 disposals against the Brisbane Lions at GMHBA Stadium. In his last five home games, Bruhn has been a consistent ball magnet, averaging a solid 18.4 disposals. With a knack for finding the footy, his recent form shows he can capitalize on his opportunities, especially against the Lions whom he's previously averaged 16.2 disposals against. Bruhn's ability to cover the ground efficiently, gaining an average of 251.4 meters per game, and his high disposal efficiency of 73.2% make him a reliable choice to exceed the 17.5 line. Backing Bruhn to shine in front of the home fans is a smart play given his recent consistency and matchup history.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Tanner Bruhn averaged 17.5 disposals, 0.3 goals and 2.3 marks per game across 17 games in 2024.

17.5
Disposals
0.3
Goals
2.3
Marks
4.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (21 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Tanner Bruhn recorded 10 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
21 Sep 24Brisbane Lions10024
5 Sep 24Port Adelaide18162
24 Aug 24West Coast Eagles23055
10 Aug 24Fremantle4011
3 Aug 24Adelaide Crows23126
27 Jul 24North Melbourne16033
9 Jun 24Sydney Swans13010
1 Jun 24Richmond26135
25 May 24GWS GIANTS21134
16 May 24Gold Coast SUNS11124
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 17.5 Over -213 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals 16.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tanner Bruhn (Geelong Cats) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tanner Bruhn is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.1% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 2 July at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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