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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Daniel Curtin is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 62%, the price says 73%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 8:52AM UTC
AFL

Daniel Curtin

Adelaide Crows

Value call

Daniel Curtin (Adelaide Crows) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 14.5 that pays $137 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -270 (1.37) · $100→$137
Value call
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
62 in 100
Predicted
18.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 62.4% · before adjusting for past results 76.6% · the book's price implies 73.0% · gap -10.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.6%62.4%73.0%1.60+3.6%

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Daniel Curtin Over 14.5 Disposals (-270)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Brisbane Lions have a solid matchup against the Adelaide Crows, and Daniel Curtin is expected to shine. Our numbers show he usually gets a lot of the ball, with clearly higher stats in disposals compared to typical players. With the Lions playing at the Gabba, he should have plenty of opportunities to rack up his disposals, especially given the Crows' struggles in one-on-one contests. The bet is for Daniel Curtin to get over 14.5 disposals. He has been averaging well over that mark, and the Lions' style of play often gets him involved. The biggest risk is that the game could be closer than expected, which might limit his chances. Still, with how he has been performing lately, this looks like a promising pick.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 9 of last 10(90%)

Season averages (2024)

Daniel Curtin averaged 7.7 disposals, 0.4 goals and 2.3 marks per game across 7 games in 2024.

7.7
Disposals
0.4
Goals
2.3
Marks
1.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Daniel Curtin recorded 10 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Sydney Swans10141
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide11023
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs11252
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats1000
28 Jul 24Hawthorn7001
12 May 24Brisbane Lions5010
2 May 24Port Adelaide9040
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 14.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Marks 2.5 Over -200 ✗ MISS
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 13.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Marks Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Daniel Curtin (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Daniel Curtin is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.6% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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