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AFL

Daniel Curtin

Adelaide Crows

Value call

Daniel Curtin (Adelaide Crows) has one live pick today: over 2.5 marks that pays $152 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
68 in 100
Predicted
4.7 marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 68.3% · before adjusting for past results 81.2% · the book's price implies 65.8% · gap +2.5%.

Latest Model PickFree
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 7:35 PM AEST
Daniel Curtin
over 2.5 marks
Marks Over 2.5 -192 (1.52) · $100→$152
Value call
HIGHWins about 68 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$15.20 Odds-192
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Daniel Curtin is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 68 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 68%, the price says 66%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 7:00PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks81.2%68.3%65.8%1.46+15.4%

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Daniel Curtin Over 2.5 Marks (-192)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Daniel Curtin could really shine in this game against the Adelaide Crows. The Brisbane Lions have been on fire lately, winning 9 of their last 10 matches and coming out ahead by over 31 points in their last 12 games. With both teams scoring around 50 points before half-time, it seems likely there will be plenty of opportunities for Curtin to make marks. However, the Crows have also been strong, winning 7 of their last 10, and they don't back down easily. The risk here is how closely matched these teams are overall. Still, with the Lions' recent form and the way they play, betting on Curtin to make over 2.5 marks feels like a solid choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Daniel Curtin averaged 7.7 disposals, 0.4 goals and 2.3 marks per game across 7 games in 2024.

7.7
Disposals
0.4
Goals
2.3
Marks
1.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Sydney Swans), Daniel Curtin recorded 10 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Sydney Swans10141
17 Aug 24Port Adelaide11023
11 Aug 24Western Bulldogs11252
3 Aug 24Geelong Cats1000
28 Jul 24Hawthorn7001
12 May 24Brisbane Lions5010
2 May 24Port Adelaide9040
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Marks 2.5 Over -192 ✗ MISS
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 15.5 Over -167 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 14.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Marks — — — Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Daniel Curtin (Adelaide Crows) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Daniel Curtin is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.4% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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