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AFL

Matthew Johnson

Fremantle

+0.5% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -333 (1.30)
+0.5% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth
Sat 21 Mar, 8:35AM
Model Probability
77.4%
Implied Probability
76.9%
Model Edge
+0.5%
Predicted Value
19.3 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Matthew Johnson (Fremantle) Over 15.5 Disposals (-333)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player for the Over in disposals, Matthew Johnson of the Fremantle Dockers stands out. In his last 5 home games, Johnson has been a midfield maestro, averaging 20 disposals per game, comfortably surpassing the 15.5 line. His ability to find the footy with precision is evident, boasting a solid 66.2% disposal efficiency. Facing Melbourne, where he has historically tallied 16.5 disposals on average, Johnson is poised to thrive. With recent averages of 10 kicks and 10 handballs per home game, he's a dual threat on the field. Johnson's form is on the upswing, making the Over on his disposals a smart play for this matchup at Optus Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (9 picks) 55.6% (5/9)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Mar 26 Melbourne Demons @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 15.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
21 Mar 26 Melbourne Demons @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 16.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
21 Mar 26 Melbourne Demons @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 12.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
21 Mar 26 Melbourne Demons @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
21 Mar 26 Melbourne Demons @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
14 Mar 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Geelong Cats Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Matthew Johnson (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 9 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 55.6% (5/9). The latest model pick for Matthew Johnson is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.5% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 21 March at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.