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The latest Bet Better model pick for Matthew Johnson is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 88 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 88%, implied 70%, edge +17.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 1, 9:46AM UTC
AFL

Matthew Johnson

Fremantle

+17.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -238 (1.42) · $100→$142
+17.3% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
88 in 100
Predicted
21.5 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 87.7% · the book's price implies 70.4% · gap +17.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals87.7%—70.4%1.14+17.3%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Matthew Johnson Over 14.5 Disposals (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Matthew Johnson is set to shine at Optus Stadium as the Fremantle Dockers take on the Hawthorn Hawks. Our numbers really like him to get over 14.5 disposals in this game. He's been performing well, with a strong average of 50 in goal accuracy and a notable ability to create chances with 3.5 frees for. This suggests he'll be involved quite a bit during the match, giving him a good shot at hitting that target. However, Hawthorn is not an easy opponent, so there is some risk here. They have a solid defense, which could limit his opportunities. Still, with the way he's been playing, he seems like a strong bet to rack up those disposals. Remember, nothing is guaranteed, but this looks promising!

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Season averages (2024)

Matthew Johnson averaged 15.9 disposals, 0.2 goals and 3.6 marks per game across 19 games in 2024.

15.9
Disposals
0.2
Goals
3.6
Marks
3.1
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Matthew Johnson has cleared 10.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o10.5100%
o11.5100%
o13.5100%
o14.5100%
o16.570%
o17.560%
o19.540%
o21.530%
o22.530%
o24.510%
o25.510%
o27.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Matthew Johnson is averaging 20.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

20.8
Disp · Overall
0.4
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Matthew Johnson recorded 7 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Port Adelaide7010
17 Aug 24GWS GIANTS11001
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats21062
13 Jul 24Hawthorn12045
6 Jul 24Richmond19047
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans21024
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS15055
15 Jun 24Western Bulldogs9023
24 May 24Collingwood20044
18 May 24St Kilda21153
Quick answers:How many disposals does Matthew Johnson average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Disposals 17.5 Over -250 ✗ MISS
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Disposals 16.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 19.5 Under -130 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Matthew Johnson (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matthew Johnson is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.3% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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