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The latest Bet Better model pick for Matthew Johnson is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 64%, for a model edge of +6.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
AFL

Matthew Johnson

Fremantle

+6.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -179 (1.56)
+6.8% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sun 19 Apr, 7:10AM
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Model Probability
70.9%
Implied Probability
64.1%
Model Edge
+6.8%
Predicted Value
19.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.9%—64.1%1.41+6.8%

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AI Analysis

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Matthew Johnson (Fremantle) Over 16.5 Disposals (-179)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to the upcoming clash between the West Coast Eagles and the Fremantle Dockers at Optus Stadium, all eyes are on the young talent, Matthew Johnson. The data paints a promising picture for Johnson to shine in the disposals department. Over his last five away games, Johnson has been averaging a solid 15.6 disposals, comfortably surpassing the 16.5 mark set for this game. Additionally, his recent stats against the Eagles and his overall form further bolster the case for him to hit this line. With his knack for finding the footy, coupled with his improving form, backing Johnson to surpass 16.5 disposals seems like a smart play with a high probability of success. This bet on Johnson's disposals over could prove to be a rewarding choice for punters looking to snag a win on Sunday.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
15.6avg disposals recent
Season best25
Disposals last 10avg 15.6 · hi 21 · lo 7
212091521191221117

Matthew Johnson has a disposals high of 25 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 16.5 Over -179 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 15.5 Over -263 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 14.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Matthew Johnson (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matthew Johnson is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.8% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs West Coast Eagles on Sunday 19 April at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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