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The latest Bet Better model pick for Matthew Johnson is Under 19.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +14.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 2:22PM UTC
AFL

Matthew Johnson

Fremantle

+14.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 19.5 -130 (1.77) · $100→$177
+14.5% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Fri 31 Jul, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
71.0%
Implied Probability
56.5%
Model Edge
+14.5%
Predicted Value
16.8 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.0%—56.5%1.41+14.5%

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AI Analysis

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Matthew Johnson (Fremantle) Under 19.5 Disposals (-130)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to the upcoming clash between the Fremantle Dockers and the Western Bulldogs, all eyes are on Matthew Johnson. Despite his recent solid form, averaging 21.2 disposals over his last five home games, he faces a tough challenge against the Bulldogs. Johnson's historical performance against this opponent, with just 12.3 disposals in his last five matchups, raises concerns. Moreover, his turnover rate of 2.4 per game and the Bulldogs' relentless midfield pressure could disrupt his usual rhythm. With the line set at 19.5 disposals, there's a strong case for Johnson to fall short this time. The data suggests that the under on Matthew Johnson's disposals is a smart bet for this game at Optus Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
15.6avg disposals recent
Season best25
Disposals last 10avg 15.6 · hi 21 · lo 7
212091521191221117

Matthew Johnson has a disposals high of 25 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
31 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 19.5 Under -130 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 16.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 15.5 Over -263 ✓ HIT
19 Apr 26 Fremantle Dockers @ West Coast Eagles Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Matthew Johnson (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matthew Johnson is Under 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.5% on this pick. Their next game is Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle Dockers on Friday 31 July at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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