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AFL

Matthew Johnson

Fremantle

Value call

Matthew Johnson (Fremantle) has one live pick today: over 15.5 disposals that pays $162 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
53 in 100
Predicted
18.9 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 53.4% · before adjusting for past results 72.9% · the book's price implies 61.7% · gap -8.4%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 2:30 PM AEST
Matthew Johnson
over 15.5 disposals
Disposals Over 15.5 -161 (1.62) · $100→$162
Value call
LEANWins about 53 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$16.20 Odds-161
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Matthew Johnson is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 53 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 53%, the price says 62%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 16, 7:56PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.9%53.4%61.7%1.87+11.2%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Matthew Johnson Over 15.5 Disposals (-161)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle's home games show they get the ball into scoring positions more often than Brisbane, averaging about seven more inside 50s each game recently. This means they have more chances to move the ball around, which can help Matthew Johnson rack up his disposals. He has the chance to shine in this game, especially since Fremantle's ruckmen have been dominating, winning about 10 more hit-outs than their opponents. Brisbane has faced some tough teams lately, making their record a bit tricky to gauge. While they win the contested ball more often, Fremantle's advantage in getting the ball forward could mean more opportunities for Johnson. The biggest risk here is that both teams are closely matched, so it could go either way. Still, there's a good chance Johnson can get over 15.5 disposals.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Matthew Johnson averaged 15.9 disposals, 0.2 goals and 3.6 marks per game across 19 games in 2024.

15.9
Disposals
0.2
Goals
3.6
Marks
3.1
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Matthew Johnson has cleared 10.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o10.5100%
o11.5100%
o13.5100%
o14.590%
o16.570%
o17.560%
o19.540%
o21.530%
o22.530%
o24.510%
o25.510%
o27.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Matthew Johnson is averaging 16.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

16.2
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Matthew Johnson recorded 7 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Port Adelaide7010
17 Aug 24GWS GIANTS11001
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats21062
13 Jul 24Hawthorn12045
6 Jul 24Richmond19047
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans21024
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS15055
15 Jun 24Western Bulldogs9023
24 May 24Collingwood20044
18 May 24St Kilda21153
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 15.5 Over -161 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 14.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Handballs 7.5 Over -238 ✗ MISS
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Matthew Johnson (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matthew Johnson is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.2% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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