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AFL

Karl Worner

Fremantle

+0.5% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -625 (1.16)
+0.5% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne
Sun 20 Jul, 5:15AM
Model Probability
86.8%
Implied Probability
86.2%
Model Edge
+0.5%
Predicted Value
15.1 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Karl Worner (Fremantle) Over 9.5 Disposals (-625)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Karl Worner presents a strong case for exceeding 9.5 disposals against Collingwood. His recent form, averaging 12.8 disposals in away games and hitting a 7-game streak, indicates consistency. With a 86.2% implied probability from the model, Worner's L5 stats against the opponent (12 disposals) and overall performance (14.6 disposals) further support this bet. His balanced mix of contested possessions (3.4), uncontested possessions (9), and efficient disposals (77.2%) enhance his chances of meeting the line. Additionally, his ability to gain meters (152.4 avg) and maintain a low turnovers rate (1.6 avg) solidifies his potential impact. Worner's current momentum and matchup trends align favorably for this wager.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (1 picks) 100.0% (1/1)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
20 Jul 25 Fremantle Dockers @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 9.5 Over -625 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Karl Worner (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 1 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 100.0% (1/1). The latest model pick for Karl Worner is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.5% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Collingwood Magpies on Sunday 20 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.