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AFL

Karl Worner

Fremantle

Value call

Karl Worner (Fremantle) has one live pick today: over 15.5 disposals that pays $157 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
54 in 100
Predicted
19.0 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 53.6% · before adjusting for past results 74.5% · the book's price implies 63.7% · gap -10.1%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 2:30 PM AEST
Karl Worner
over 15.5 disposals
Disposals Over 15.5 -175 (1.57) · $100→$157
Value call
LEANWins about 54 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$15.70 Odds-175
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Karl Worner is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 54%, the price says 64%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 13, 1:22AM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.5%53.6%63.7%1.87+10.8%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Karl Worner Over 15.5 Disposals (-175)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

At the MCG, Fremantle Dockers will face off against the Brisbane Lions. Karl Worner has been showing some great form lately, with an average of 3 bounces and 2 frees for, both well above the usual numbers. This suggests he's very active on the field and likely to get his hands on the ball a lot. With our numbers giving Worner a good chance to go over 15.5 disposals, it feels like a solid pick. The main concern is that both teams are closely matched, which could lead to a tighter game. Still, if Worner keeps playing like he has been, he should be able to reach that number.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Karl Worner averaged 9.5 disposals, 0.0 goals and 2.8 marks per game across 4 games in 2024.

9.5
Disposals
0.0
Goals
2.8
Marks
1.0
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Karl Worner has cleared 11.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o11.5100%
o12.5100%
o13.590%
o15.560%
o16.550%
o18.540%
o19.530%
o20.520%
o22.510%
o23.510%
o25.510%
o26.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Karl Worner is averaging 16.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

16.6
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (10 Aug 24 vs Geelong Cats), Karl Worner recorded 5 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats5000
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS5020
15 Jun 24Western Bulldogs16063
17 Mar 24Brisbane Lions12031
26 Aug 23Hawthorn17040
20 Aug 23Port Adelaide5030
12 Aug 23West Coast Eagles15040
9 Jul 23Carlton7011
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 15.5 Over -175 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Kicks 9.5 Over -189 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 14.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Karl Worner (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Karl Worner is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.8% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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