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The latest Bet Better model pick for Karl Worner is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 72%, for a model edge of +0.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:05PM UTC
AFL

Karl Worner

Fremantle

+0.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -256 (1.39)
+0.6% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra, ACT · Outdoor
Sat 4 Jul, 3:35AM
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Model Probability
72.5%
Implied Probability
71.9%
Model Edge
+0.6%
Predicted Value
19.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.5%—71.9%1.38+0.6%

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AI Analysis

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Karl Worner (Fremantle) Over 16.5 Disposals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Karl Worner, the maestro of the midfield, is poised to shine in the clash against the Greater Western Sydney Giants. Over his last five away games, he's been a disposal machine, averaging a whopping 18.6 possessions. With a precision-like disposalefficiency of 86.2% and an ability to cover the ground with 363.2 metres gained per game, Worner is a class act. Against the Giants, he's been even more dominant, averaging 8 disposals in their last encounters. Currently riding a hot streak with 5 hits in his last 6 games overall, Worner is in prime form to surpass the 16.5 disposals line. Expect him to orchestrate Fremantle's play with poise and precision, racking up possessions like a true midfield maestro.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
10.3avg disposals recent
Season best17
Disposals last 8avg 10.3 · hi 17 · lo 5
715517121655

Karl Worner has a disposals high of 17 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 16.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 15.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Karl Worner (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Karl Worner is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.6% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Saturday 4 July at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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