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The latest Bet Better model pick for Karl Worner is Over 11.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 96 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 96%, implied 83%, edge +12.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 1, 7:48AM UTC
AFL

Karl Worner

Fremantle

+12.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 11.5 -500 (1.20) · $100→$120
+12.6% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
96 in 100
Predicted
21.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 95.9% · the book's price implies 83.3% · gap +12.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals95.9%—83.3%1.04+12.6%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Karl Worner Over 11.5 Disposals (-500)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

At Optus Stadium, Karl Worner has a good chance to get over 11.5 disposals against the Hawthorn Hawks. Our numbers show he's been seeing plenty of action, with a strong rating in recent games that makes this bet look promising. He's been involved in a lot of plays, which suggests he'll get the ball often. Still, Worner has been performing well, and with the way he's been playing lately, it seems likely he'll hit that number. This could be a fun one to follow!

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Karl Worner averaged 9.5 disposals, 0.0 goals and 2.8 marks per game across 4 games in 2024.

9.5
Disposals
0.0
Goals
2.8
Marks
1.0
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Karl Worner has cleared 9.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.5100%
o10.5100%
o12.5100%
o13.590%
o15.570%
o16.560%
o18.560%
o20.530%
o21.530%
o23.520%
o24.520%
o26.520%

Home / away and opponent splits

Karl Worner is averaging 17.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

17.2
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (10 Aug 24 vs Geelong Cats), Karl Worner recorded 5 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats5000
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS5020
15 Jun 24Western Bulldogs16063
17 Mar 24Brisbane Lions12031
26 Aug 23Hawthorn17040
20 Aug 23Port Adelaide5030
12 Aug 23West Coast Eagles15040
9 Jul 23Carlton7011
Quick answers:How many disposals does Karl Worner average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Disposals 16.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 16.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 15.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Karl Worner (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Karl Worner is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.6% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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