Karl Worner (Fremantle) Over 9.5 Disposals (-625)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Karl Worner presents a strong case for exceeding 9.5 disposals against Collingwood. His recent form, averaging 12.8 disposals in away games and hitting a 7-game streak, indicates consistency. With a 86.2% implied probability from the model, Worner's L5 stats against the opponent (12 disposals) and overall performance (14.6 disposals) further support this bet. His balanced mix of contested possessions (3.4), uncontested possessions (9), and efficient disposals (77.2%) enhance his chances of meeting the line. Additionally, his ability to gain meters (152.4 avg) and maintain a low turnovers rate (1.6 avg) solidifies his potential impact. Worner's current momentum and matchup trends align favorably for this wager.