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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Karl Worner is Over 9.5 on Kicks.
On Kicks, our numbers say this bet wins about 75 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 75%, the price says 66%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 22, 5:14PM UTC
AFL

Karl Worner

Fremantle

Value call

Karl Worner (Fremantle) has one live pick today: Kicks Over 9.5 that pays $152 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Kicks Over 9.5 -192 (1.52) · $100→$152
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
75 in 100
Predicted
12.2 Kicks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 74.5% · the book's price implies 65.8% · gap +8.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Kicks74.5%65.8%1.34+8.7%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Karl Worner Over 9.5 Kicks (-192)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Fremantle Dockers will face the Brisbane Lions at the MCG, and this matchup looks promising for Karl Worner to get over 9.5 kicks. Fremantle has won seven of their last ten games and has been scoring well, averaging almost 45 points before half-time in their last 12 matches. That means plenty of action and opportunities for Worner to rack up those kicks. Brisbane is also on a roll, winning nine out of their last ten and pulling ahead by an average of over 31 points per game. The risk here is that both teams are performing at a high level, which can make for a tight game. Still, our numbers give a good chance for Worner to hit that mark today.

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Pick History & Track Record

Karl Worner's lines for Sat 26 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Kicks 9.5

Karl Worner's kicks line is 9.5.

Disposals 15.5

Karl Worner's disposals line is 15.5.

Disposals 14.5

Karl Worner's disposals line is 14.5.

Disposals 13.5

Karl Worner's disposals line is 13.5.

Disposals 12.5

Karl Worner's disposals line is 12.5.

Season averages (2024)

Karl Worner averaged 9.5 disposals, 0.0 goals and 2.8 marks per game across 4 games in 2024.

9.5
Disposals
0.0
Goals
2.8
Marks
1.0
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Karl Worner has cleared 11.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o11.5100%
o12.5100%
o13.590%
o15.560%
o16.550%
o18.540%
o19.530%
o20.520%
o22.510%
o23.510%
o25.510%
o26.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Karl Worner is averaging 16.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

16.6
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (10 Aug 24 vs Geelong Cats), Karl Worner recorded 5 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats5000
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS5020
15 Jun 24Western Bulldogs16063
17 Mar 24Brisbane Lions12031
26 Aug 23Hawthorn17040
20 Aug 23Port Adelaide5030
12 Aug 23West Coast Eagles15040
9 Jul 23Carlton7011
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 15.5 Over -256 ✗ MISS
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals 14.5 Over -357 ✗ MISS
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Kicks 9.5 Over -313 ✗ MISS
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Marks Pending
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Karl Worner (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Karl Worner is Over 9.5 on Kicks. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.7% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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