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The latest Bet Better model pick for Karl Worner is Over 9.5 on Kicks.
On Kicks, our numbers say this bet wins about 82 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 82%, implied 63%, edge +18.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 2, 10:06AM UTC
AFL

Karl Worner

Fremantle

+18.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Kicks Over 9.5 -172 (1.58) · $100→$158
+18.5% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
82 in 100
Predicted
13.5 Kicks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 81.8% · the book's price implies 63.3% · gap +18.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Kicks81.8%—63.3%1.22+18.5%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Karl Worner Over 9.5 Kicks (-172)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

At Optus Stadium, Fremantle is looking strong with their recent form, winning 7 of their last 10 games. Karl Worner has shown he can be a key player, and with Fremantle getting the ball inside 50 more often than Hawthorn, he should have plenty of chances to rack up kicks. Hawthorn has been competitive too, but they lose contested ball slightly more than they win. This could make it harder for them to stop Worner from getting those kicks. The biggest risk is that both teams are performing well, so it could be a close match. Still, Worner's chances look good for hitting over 9.5 kicks.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Karl Worner averaged 9.5 disposals, 0.0 goals and 2.8 marks per game across 4 games in 2024.

9.5
Disposals
0.0
Goals
2.8
Marks
1.0
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Karl Worner has cleared 9.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.5100%
o10.5100%
o12.5100%
o14.580%
o15.570%
o17.560%
o19.540%
o20.530%
o22.530%
o24.520%
o25.520%
o27.520%

Home / away and opponent splits

Karl Worner is averaging 17.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

17.2
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (10 Aug 24 vs Geelong Cats), Karl Worner recorded 5 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats5000
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS5020
15 Jun 24Western Bulldogs16063
17 Mar 24Brisbane Lions12031
26 Aug 23Hawthorn17040
20 Aug 23Port Adelaide5030
12 Aug 23West Coast Eagles15040
9 Jul 23Carlton7011
Quick answers:How many disposals does Karl Worner average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Disposals 16.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 16.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 15.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Karl Worner (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Karl Worner is Over 9.5 on Kicks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.5% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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