Cam Rayner (Brisbane Lions) Over 14.5 Disposals (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Cam Rayner is a strong play to clear 14.5 disposals here, with the model projecting 17.1 — a 2.6-disposal buffer above the line that generates an 18.6% edge against implied odds of just 52.6%. That's meaningful value at $1.90.
The underlying numbers back it up convincingly. Rayner is averaging 16.0 disposals across his last five away games, and specifically against Fremantle away he's averaging 16.5 — both comfortably above the line. His away split shows a healthy blend of 9.2 kicks and 6.8 handballs per game, with 301.8 metres gained suggesting he's not just accumulating cheaply. His overall hit rate of 9/11 in recent games and 4/6 away in his last six underlines the consistency. The 71.2% disposal efficiency away means he's not being wasteful either. At a line this modest for a forward who generates this kind of volume, the model's edge looks well-founded.