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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Cam Rayner is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 61%, implied 70%, edge +2.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 5:59AM UTC
AFL

Cam Rayner

Brisbane Lions

+2.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -233 (1.43) · $100→$143
+2.6% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 21 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
1.0 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.6% · the book's price implies 69.9% · gap +2.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals72.6%60.5%69.9%1.65+2.6%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Cam Rayner (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-233)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Cam Rayner, the Lions' sharpshooter, is primed to snag a goal against Collingwood at the MCG. In his last 5 away games, Rayner has been on a scoring spree, averaging 0.6 goals per game with a solid 31.7% goal accuracy. Facing the Magpies, whom he's averaged 1.2 goals against in their recent encounters, Rayner's goal-scoring prowess shines. With a current hit streak of 3 on away games and 5 overall, Rayner's form is red hot. His ability to create opportunities with an average of 4.6 inside 50s and 5.6 score involvements per game only adds to his goal-scoring potential. Backing Rayner to hit Over 0.5 goals seems like a safe bet given his recent form and historical performance against Collingwood.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Cam Rayner averaged 15.3 disposals, 1.1 goals and 3.5 marks per game across 27 games in 2024.

15.3
Disposals
1.1
Goals
3.5
Marks
3.1
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Goals Scored

Cam Rayner has cleared 0.5 goals scored in 80% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o0.580%
o1.520%
o2.510%
o3.50%
o4.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Cam Rayner is averaging 17.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

17.6
Disp · Overall
1.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Cam Rayner recorded 16 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans16191
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats18255
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS8004
7 Sep 24Carlton12362
24 Aug 24Essendon18041
17 Aug 24Collingwood15011
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS17011
4 Aug 24St Kilda22352
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS25264
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans20247
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Collingwood Magpies Goals 0.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -217 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Brisbane Lions Goals Pending
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Goals Pending

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About This Player

Cam Rayner (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Cam Rayner is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.6% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood Magpies on Friday 21 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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