Cam Rayner (Brisbane Lions) Over 14.5 Disposals (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Rayner is a strong play here, with the model projecting 17.1 disposals against a line of 14.5 — a 2.6-disposal buffer that generates an 18.6% edge over the implied 52.6% probability baked into the $1.90. That's a meaningful gap to exploit. His away form is the real clincher: over his last five away games he's averaging exactly 16 disposals, combining 9.2 kicks with 6.8 handballs and generating 301.8 metres gained per game — all comfortably above the line. Crucially, in his last five away games specifically against Fremantle, he's averaging 16.5 disposals, suggesting this matchup suits him. The broader hit rate backs it up too — he's cleared 14.5 disposals in 9 of his last 11 outings overall, and 4 of his last 6 away. At 71.2% disposal efficiency on the road, he's not just accumulating, he's using it. Solid edge at the price.