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Model picks & player props
North Melbourne Kangaroos
VS
Sydney Swans

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 2:34PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
SCG, Sydney
Outdoor
Sat 19 Jul 2025, 6:15AM
3
Game markets graded
10
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: North Melbourne Kangaroos (Moneyline)
The model graded 13 markets for North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $600 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 28.5%, fair odds 3.51, book price +500, model edge +11.8%. Tip-off Sat 19 Jul 2025, 6:15AM at SCG.

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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
North Melbourne Kangaroos
+500
+ 2 more markets
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🔒
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
North Melbourne KangaroosHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Kangaroos

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Swans

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Brodie Grundy Sydney Swans Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Colby McKercher North Melbourne Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Cameron Zurhaar North Melbourne Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Paul Curtis North Melbourne Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nick Larkey North Melbourne Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Sydney Swans — what the model found

Our model graded 13 betting markets for North Melbourne Kangaroos at Sydney Swans — 3 on the game itself and 10 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

3
Game markets graded
10
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 13 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 12 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans — recent results

Sydney Swans have won 3 of their last 5 games; North Melbourne Kangaroos have won 0 of their last 0.

Sydney Swans — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W167–70PORTHome
W107–88STKAway
W139–88GWSAway
L71–87ADELHome
L83–126BLAway

North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Sydney Swans — model preview

Deep dive into Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne Kangaroos. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Paul Curtis. Check out AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne Kangaroos stats and odds.

Paul Curtis (North Melbourne) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-417)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Paul Curtis is a strong bet to snag a goal against the Sydney Swans based on his recent form. With an impressive average of 2 goals in his last 5 away games, his goal accuracy of 63.0% and high shot volume of 3.4 shots at goal per game indicate a player in form. Additionally, his average marks inside 50 and score involvements further highlight his goal-scoring threat. Against an opponent where he has previously averaged a goal per game, Curtis' consistent performance suggests he is likely to hit the scoreboard. The model's prediction of 1.5 goals with an 8.7% edge further supports his scoring potential in this matchup.

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Kangaroos vs Swans, or as Swans vs Kangaroos. The most recent game between them was Saturday 19 July 2025 at SCG. The model has generated 3 game picks and 10 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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