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AFL

Caleb Serong

Fremantle

Value call

Caleb Serong (Fremantle) has one live pick today: over 1.5 marks that pays $159 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
67 in 100
Predicted
2.9 marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 67.1% · before adjusting for past results 80.1% · the book's price implies 62.9% · gap +4.2%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 2:30 PM AEST
Caleb Serong
over 1.5 marks
Marks Over 1.5 -169 (1.59) · $100→$159
Value call
HIGHWins about 67 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$15.90 Odds-169
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Caleb Serong is Over 1.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 67 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 67%, the price says 63%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 7:02PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks80.1%67.1%62.9%1.49+17.2%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Caleb Serong Over 1.5 Marks (-169)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Caleb Serong has been looking sharp lately, especially when it comes to marking the ball. He's been getting plenty of chances inside 50, and he has a good chance to grab over 1.5 marks against the Brisbane Lions. Fremantle has been getting it inside 50 more often than their opponents, which should help him find the ball in scoring positions. The only worry here is that both teams have been quite competitive in contested situations. Still, with the amount of play Fremantle is generating, he should be able to get the marks we need.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Caleb Serong averaged 29.4 disposals, 0.5 goals and 2.9 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

29.4
Disposals
0.5
Goals
2.9
Marks
5.0
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Caleb Serong has cleared 17.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o17.590%
o18.590%
o20.580%
o22.570%
o24.550%
o25.540%
o27.540%
o29.50%
o31.50%
o32.50%
o34.50%
o36.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Caleb Serong is averaging 24.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

24.6
Disp · Overall
0.6
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Caleb Serong recorded 19 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Port Adelaide190110
17 Aug 24GWS GIANTS24204
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats22345
4 Aug 24Essendon32023
27 Jul 24West Coast Eagles32122
21 Jul 24Melbourne36145
13 Jul 24Hawthorn22106
6 Jul 24Richmond27012
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans23127
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS29132
Quick answers:How many disposals does Caleb Serong average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 21.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
21 Mar 26 Melbourne Demons @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 28.5 Under -108 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Handballs — — — Pending
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Fantasy — — — Pending
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Fantasy — — — Pending

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About This Player

Caleb Serong (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Caleb Serong is Over 1.5 on Marks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.2% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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