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The latest Bet Better model pick for Caleb Serong is Over 9.5 on Handballs.
On Handballs, our numbers say this bet wins about 75 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 75%, the price says 72%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 3:23PM UTC
AFL

Caleb Serong

Fremantle

Value call

Caleb Serong (Fremantle) has one live pick today: Handballs Over 9.5 that pays $139 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Handballs Over 9.5 -256 (1.39) · $100→$139
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
75 in 100
Predicted
12.0 Handballs
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 74.5% · the book's price implies 71.9% · gap +2.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Handballs74.5%—71.9%1.34+2.6%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Caleb Serong Over 9.5 Handballs (-256)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Caleb Serong has been on fire lately, helping Fremantle win 7 of their last 10 games. They have been scoring well, averaging almost 45 points before half-time in their recent matches. Given how well they are playing, it seems likely that Serong will be involved a lot and rack up his handballs. The bet is for Caleb Serong to get over 9.5 handballs in the game against Brisbane Lions. While Brisbane has also been strong, winning 9 of their last 10 games and averaging about 50 points before half-time, this matchup is closely contested. The risk here is that both teams are in great form, so it could be a tight battle. Still, I think Serong will find plenty of opportunities to pass the ball.

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Pick History & Track Record

Caleb Serong's lines for Sat 26 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Handballs 9.5
How many disposals does Caleb Serong average?

Caleb Serong's handballs line is 9.5.

Season averages (2024)

Caleb Serong averaged 29.4 disposals, 0.5 goals and 2.9 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

29.4
Disposals
0.5
Goals
2.9
Marks
5.0
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Caleb Serong has cleared 17.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o17.590%
o18.590%
o20.580%
o22.570%
o24.550%
o25.540%
o27.540%
o29.50%
o31.50%
o32.50%
o34.50%
o36.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Caleb Serong is averaging 24.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

24.6
Disp · Overall
0.6
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Caleb Serong recorded 19 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Port Adelaide190110
17 Aug 24GWS GIANTS24204
10 Aug 24Geelong Cats22345
4 Aug 24Essendon32023
27 Jul 24West Coast Eagles32122
21 Jul 24Melbourne36145
13 Jul 24Hawthorn22106
6 Jul 24Richmond27012
29 Jun 24Sydney Swans23127
23 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS29132
Quick answers:How many disposals does Caleb Serong average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Marks — — — Pending
11 Sep 26 Geelong Cats @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Caleb Serong (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Caleb Serong is Over 9.5 on Handballs. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.6% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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