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AFL

Caleb Serong

Fremantle

+19.9% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Under 28.5 -108 (1.93)
+19.9% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth
Sat 21 Mar, 8:35AM
Model Probability
71.7%
Implied Probability
51.8%
Model Edge
+19.9%
Predicted Value
25.6 Disposals

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Caleb Serong (Fremantle) Under 28.5 Disposals (-108)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Caleb Serong to stay under 28.5 disposals against Melbourne, the numbers point to a strategic play. Despite his recent form, averaging 25.8 disposals in his last five home games, Serong faces a tough challenge against a sturdy Melbourne side. With an average of 30.5 disposals in his last five matchups against Melbourne, he might find it harder to hit his mark this time around. His recent turnover average of 5 per game also raises concerns about ball security. While Serong's efficiency and intercept stats look solid, his contested possessions and uncontested possessions numbers hint at potential struggles against a formidable opponent like Melbourne. By leveraging these insights, the under on Serong's disposals seems like a prudent bet for this showdown at Optus Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (7 picks) 28.6% (2/7)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Mar 26 Melbourne Demons @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 28.5 Under -108 ✓ HIT
20 Jul 25 Fremantle Dockers @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 27.5 Under -115 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 25 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 24.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
06 Jul 25 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
06 Jul 25 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
29 Jun 25 St Kilda Saints @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Caleb Serong (Fremantle) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 7 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 28.6% (2/7). The latest model pick for Caleb Serong is Under 28.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.9% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 21 March at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.