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AFL

Caleb Serong

Fremantle

+17.6% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Under 27.5 -115 (1.87)
+17.6% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne
Sun 20 Jul, 5:15AM
Model Probability
71.1%
Implied Probability
53.5%
Model Edge
+17.6%
Predicted Value
24.7 Disposals

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Caleb Serong (Fremantle) Under 27.5 Disposals (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Caleb Serong's recent performance, especially away, supports betting on him to have under 27.5 disposals against Collingwood. Despite averaging 25 disposals in his last five away games, his matchup history against Collingwood and overall averages suggest a potential dip in production. With a solid contested possessions average of 11.6 but facing a team where his disposals average drops to 28.2, Serong's stats indicate a trend towards falling short of the 27.5 line. His turnover average of 5.4 in away games and the Magpies' ability to limit his output strengthen this Under bet. Combining these factors, Serong seems likely to struggle to surpass the proposed disposal line.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (30 picks) 16.7% (5/30)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
20 Jul 25 Fremantle Dockers @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 27.5 Under -115 ✗ MISS
20 Jul 25 Fremantle Dockers @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 27.5 Under -114 ✗ MISS
20 Jul 25 Fremantle Dockers @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 27.5 Under -115 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 25 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending
12 Jul 25 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending
12 Jul 25 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals Pending

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