Taylor Walker (Adelaide Crows) Over 0.5 Goals (-323)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Taylor Walker is on a remarkable run of form that makes this line look very thin. His overall hit rate of 6/6 across his last six games tells the story, and with a model projection of 2 goals against a line of just 0.5, the 16.4% edge is substantial. The model's implied probability sits well above the bookmaker's 76.3%, and at $1.31 it's still worth taking.
The away context is the one honest caveat — Walker's L5 away goals average drops to 0.6 — but his record specifically against Brisbane away averages 1.7 goals, which is far more relevant here. He's averaging 2.4 shots at goal in away games with 1.0 mark inside 50, meaning he's consistently getting into scoring positions. With his overall goal accuracy at 75.8% and score involvements averaging 6.0, Walker only needs one clean look to cover this line.