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The latest Bet Better model pick for Zac Bailey is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 60%, the price says 73%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 6, 12:16PM UTC
AFL

Zac Bailey

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: Goals Over 0.5 that pays $137 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -270 (1.37) · $100→$137
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
60 in 100
Predicted
1.1 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 60.1% · before adjusting for past results 74.1% · the book's price implies 73.0% · gap -12.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals74.1%60.1%73.0%1.66+1.1%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Zac Bailey Over 0.5 Goals (-270)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For the Fremantle Dockers versus Brisbane Lions game, we need Zac Bailey to score at least one goal tonight. Our numbers suggest he has a good chance of finding the back of the net. In recent matches, Bailey has shown he can get into good scoring positions, and the Dockers' defense might struggle to contain him. One thing to keep in mind is that Bailey's scoring chances can be limited if the game is tightly contested. However, he has a knack for stepping up in big moments. With the right opportunities, he should be able to score at least once.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Zac Bailey averaged 16.3 disposals, 1.0 goals and 4.3 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

16.3
Disposals
1.0
Goals
4.3
Marks
2.4
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Zac Bailey has cleared 14.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o14.5100%
o15.5100%
o17.5100%
o18.580%
o20.580%
o21.560%
o23.540%
o25.530%
o26.510%
o28.50%
o29.50%
o31.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Zac Bailey is averaging 22.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

22.6
Disp · Overall
0.8
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Zac Bailey recorded 17 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans17071
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats19232
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS11150
7 Sep 24Carlton18154
24 Aug 24Essendon17122
17 Aug 24Collingwood15130
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS13063
4 Aug 24St Kilda20340
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS13173
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans14143
Quick answers:How many disposals does Zac Bailey average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 0.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 18.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Goals 0.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Goals — — — Pending
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zac Bailey is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.1% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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