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The latest Bet Better model pick for Zac Bailey is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 62%, implied 71%, edge +3.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 15, 6:24AM UTC
AFL

Zac Bailey

Brisbane Lions

+3.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -250 (1.40) · $100→$140
+3.0% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 12 Sep, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
1.2 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.4% · the book's price implies 71.4% · gap +3.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals74.4%62.1%71.4%1.61+3.0%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows: Zac Bailey Over 0.5 Goals (-250)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For the Brisbane Lions to win tonight, Zac Bailey needs to score at least one goal. Our numbers show he has a good chance to do just that. The Lions have been pretty strong, and Bailey is likely to get opportunities to kick a goal given the way they usually play. One thing to keep in mind is that the game could be closer than expected. However, Bailey has a solid chance to find the back of the net tonight, especially at Gabba, where the home team often performs well.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Zac Bailey averaged 16.3 disposals, 1.0 goals and 4.3 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

16.3
Disposals
1.0
Goals
4.3
Marks
2.4
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Zac Bailey has cleared 15.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o15.5100%
o16.5100%
o18.590%
o20.580%
o22.560%
o23.540%
o25.530%
o27.50%
o29.50%
o30.50%
o32.50%
o34.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Zac Bailey is averaging 23.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

23.2
Disp · Overall
0.8
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Zac Bailey recorded 17 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans17071
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats19232
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS11150
7 Sep 24Carlton18154
24 Aug 24Essendon17122
17 Aug 24Collingwood15130
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS13063
4 Aug 24St Kilda20340
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS13173
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans14143
Quick answers:How many disposals does Zac Bailey average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Goals 0.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Goals 0.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zac Bailey is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.0% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 12 September at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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