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The latest Bet Better model pick for Zac Bailey is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 82 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 82%, implied 71%, edge +11.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 26, 1:00AM UTC
AFL

Zac Bailey

Brisbane Lions

+11.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -244 (1.41) · $100→$141
+11.3% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 2 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
82 in 100
Predicted
1.2 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 82.2% · the book's price implies 70.9% · gap +11.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals82.2%—70.9%1.22+11.3%

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AI Analysis

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Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Zac Bailey, the dynamo from Brisbane Lions, is primed to make his mark on the scoreboard when they face off against Geelong Cats at GMHBA Stadium. Bailey's recent form is nothing short of impressive, averaging 1.2 goals in his last five away games. His accuracy may hover at 30%, but his ability to create scoring opportunities with 4 inside 50s and 2.2 shots on goal per game is undeniable. Moreover, he's been involved in the Lions' scoring plays with an average of 7 score involvements, showcasing his impact on the game. Facing the Cats, whom he's historically netted 1.4 goals against in their away fixtures, Bailey's current form and consistency make him a strong bet to snag at least one goal. bet confidently on Bailey to go Over 0.5 goals in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Zac Bailey averaged 16.3 disposals, 1.0 goals and 4.3 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

16.3
Disposals
1.0
Goals
4.3
Marks
2.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Zac Bailey recorded 17 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans17071
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats19232
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS11150
7 Sep 24Carlton18154
24 Aug 24Essendon17122
17 Aug 24Collingwood15130
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS13063
4 Aug 24St Kilda20340
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS13173
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans14143
Quick answers:How many disposals does Zac Bailey average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zac Bailey is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.3% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 2 July at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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