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AFL

Zac Bailey

Brisbane Lions

+6.4% Edge
Latest Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -357 (1.28)
+6.4% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne
Sat 27 Sep, 4:30AM
Model Probability
84.5%
Implied Probability
78.1%
Model Edge
+6.4%
Predicted Value
1.3 Goals

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Zac Bailey is a strong bet to score anytime against Geelong Cats due to his recent form. With an average of 1.6 goals in his last 5 away games and a 54.7% goal accuracy, Bailey consistently threatens the opposition. His impressive 5.8 score involvements and 3.2 shots at goal per game indicate his active role in Brisbane's forward line. Facing Geelong, where he averages 0.8 goals in his last 5 matchups, Bailey's ability to capitalize on his 0.6 marks inside 50 boosts his scoring potential. These stats, coupled with the model's prediction of 1.3 goals, suggest Bailey is likely to snag one through the big sticks, making the over 0.5 goal scorer bet enticing.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (50 picks) 66.0% (33/50)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
27 Sep 25 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
27 Sep 25 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -357 ✗ MISS
27 Sep 25 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
27 Sep 25 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Goals Pending
27 Sep 25 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Goals Pending
27 Sep 25 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Goals Pending

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