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The latest Bet Better model pick for Zac Bailey is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 82%, versus the book's implied 71%, for a model edge of +11.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 9:44AM UTC
AFL

Zac Bailey

Brisbane Lions

+11.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -244 (1.41)
+11.3% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 2 Jul, 9:30AM
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Model Probability
82.2%
Implied Probability
70.9%
Model Edge
+11.3%
Predicted Value
1.2 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals82.2%—70.9%1.22+11.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions) Over 0.5 Goals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Zac Bailey, the dynamo from Brisbane Lions, is primed to make his mark on the scoreboard when they face off against Geelong Cats at GMHBA Stadium. Bailey's recent form is nothing short of impressive, averaging 1.2 goals in his last five away games. His accuracy may hover at 30%, but his ability to create scoring opportunities with 4 inside 50s and 2.2 shots on goal per game is undeniable. Moreover, he's been involved in the Lions' scoring plays with an average of 7 score involvements, showcasing his impact on the game. Facing the Cats, whom he's historically netted 1.4 goals against in their away fixtures, Bailey's current form and consistency make him a strong bet to snag at least one goal. bet confidently on Bailey to go Over 0.5 goals in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
22.4avg disposals L5
Away21.4vs West Coast Eagles18.2Season best26
O 20.550%
O 21.540%
O 22.540%
O 23.530%
O 24.520%
O 25.510%
Game log vs line (O 22.5)avg 15.7 · hi 20 · lo 11
14132013151718111917

Zac Bailey has gone over 22.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 22.4 disposals, best 26).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 1.5
1.8avg goals L5
Away1.8vs West Coast Eagles0.8Season best3
O 0.570%
O 1.550%
O 2.520%
O 3.510%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 1.1 · hi 3 · lo 0
1130111120

Zac Bailey has gone over 1.5 goals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.8 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Goals 0.5 Over -400 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zac Bailey is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.3% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats on Thursday 2 July at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.