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AFL

Zac Bailey

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: over 18.5 disposals that pays $140 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
22.2 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 73.8% · the book's price implies 71.4% · gap +2.4%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 2:30 PM AEST
Zac Bailey
over 18.5 disposals
Disposals Over 18.5 -250 (1.40) · $100→$140
Value call
HIGHWins about 74 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$14.00 Odds-250
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Zac Bailey is Over 18.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 74%, the price says 71%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:01PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.8%—71.4%1.36+2.4%

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Zac Bailey Over 18.5 Disposals (-250)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Zac Bailey needs to get more than 18.5 disposals tonight for this bet to win. He has been playing well lately, and Fremantle allows more opportunities for players to rack up disposals. Over their last ten games, Fremantle has had a habit of letting teams get inside their defensive area more often, which means more chances for players like Bailey to get involved. Bailey has a good shot at hitting this number, especially considering Fremantle's struggle with contested ball, where they are giving up more than they win. However, he might face some tough competition since Brisbane Lions also win contested ball more often. That said, Bailey has shown he can rise to the occasion, so let's see if he can do it tonight!

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Zac Bailey averaged 16.3 disposals, 1.0 goals and 4.3 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

16.3
Disposals
1.0
Goals
4.3
Marks
2.4
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Zac Bailey has cleared 14.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o14.5100%
o15.5100%
o17.5100%
o18.580%
o20.580%
o21.560%
o23.540%
o25.530%
o26.510%
o28.50%
o29.50%
o31.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Zac Bailey is averaging 22.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

22.6
Disp · Overall
0.8
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Zac Bailey recorded 17 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans17071
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats19232
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS11150
7 Sep 24Carlton18154
24 Aug 24Essendon17122
17 Aug 24Collingwood15130
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS13063
4 Aug 24St Kilda20340
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS13173
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans14143
Quick answers:How many disposals does Zac Bailey average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 18.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 0.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Goals 0.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ Geelong Cats Goals — — — Pending
14 Jun 26 Brisbane Lions @ Richmond Tigers Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Zac Bailey (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zac Bailey is Over 18.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.4% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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