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The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Wilmot is Over 18.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 81%, versus the book's implied 75%, for a model edge of +5.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 7:24PM UTC
AFL

Darcy Wilmot

Brisbane Lions

+5.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 18.5 -303 (1.33) · $100→$133
+5.4% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 1 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
80.6%
Implied Probability
75.2%
Model Edge
+5.4%
Predicted Value
22.8 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals80.6%75.2%1.24+5.4%

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AI Analysis

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Darcy Wilmot (Brisbane Lions) Over 18.5 Disposals (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Darcy Wilmot, the midfield maestro for the Brisbane Lions, is primed to shine against Carlton at Marvel Stadium. In his last 5 away clashes, Wilmot has been a ball magnet, averaging a hefty 24.8 disposals per game. His precise footwork and vision on the field have seen him maintain an impressive disposal efficiency of 81.0%. With an average of 18.8 kicks and 6 handballs per game in away fixtures, Wilmot is a pivotal link in the Lions' playmaking chain. Against Carlton specifically, he's been even more influential, averaging 19.5 disposals in their recent encounters. Wilmot's form is red hot, boasting a 7-game streak of hitting his disposal mark when playing away. Backed by his consistent performance and dominance in the midfield, the smart money leans towards Wilmot snagging Over 18.5 disposals in this clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
19.4avg disposals recent
Season best27
Disposals last 10avg 19.4 · hi 27 · lo 9
1827221616262192415

Darcy Wilmot has a disposals high of 27 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals 18.5 Over -303 ✗ MISS
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals 17.5 Over -455 ✗ MISS
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals 16.5 Over -714 ✗ MISS
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals Pending
26 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending
26 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Darcy Wilmot (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Wilmot is Over 18.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.4% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues on Saturday 1 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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