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The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Wilmot is Over 9.5 on Kicks.
On Kicks, our numbers say this bet wins about 82 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 82%, the price says 78%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 8:08PM UTC
AFL

Darcy Wilmot

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Darcy Wilmot (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: Kicks Over 9.5 that pays $129 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Kicks Over 9.5 -345 (1.29) · $100→$129
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 4:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
82 in 100
Predicted
13.6 Kicks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 82.1% · the book's price implies 77.5% · gap +4.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Kicks82.1%—77.5%1.22+4.6%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Darcy Wilmot Over 9.5 Kicks (-345)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For Darcy Wilmot to get over 9.5 kicks tonight, he'll need to stay active and involved in the game. Both Fremantle and Brisbane Lions have been playing really well, with Fremantle winning 7 of their last 10 matches and Brisbane winning 9 of their last 10. This means there should be plenty of action, and that could give Wilmot the chances he needs to rack up those kicks. Fremantle has been scoring well and leading by about 28.7 points in their recent games, so Wilmot may have more opportunities to kick as they push forward. However, it's worth noting that both teams are close in talent, which could make things tricky for him. Still, with the right setup and momentum, he's got a good shot to hit that target tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Darcy Wilmot's lines for Sat 26 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Kicks 9.5
How many disposals does Darcy Wilmot average?

Darcy Wilmot's kicks line is 9.5.

Season averages (2024)

Darcy Wilmot averaged 19.8 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.9 marks per game across 27 games in 2024.

19.8
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.9
Marks
1.7
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Darcy Wilmot has cleared 11.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o11.590%
o12.590%
o14.580%
o15.560%
o17.550%
o18.550%
o20.520%
o21.520%
o23.50%
o24.50%
o26.50%
o27.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Darcy Wilmot is averaging 16.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

16.6
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Darcy Wilmot recorded 15 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans15082
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats24080
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS9001
7 Sep 24Carlton21050
24 Aug 24Essendon26041
17 Aug 24Collingwood16030
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS16032
4 Aug 24St Kilda22052
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS27093
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans18061
Quick answers:How many disposals does Darcy Wilmot average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Marks 4.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 14.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Darcy Wilmot (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Wilmot is Over 9.5 on Kicks. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.6% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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