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AFL

Darcy Wilmot

Brisbane Lions

Value call

Darcy Wilmot (Brisbane Lions) has one live pick today: over 9.5 kicks that pays $140 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
13.7 kicks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 69.8% · before adjusting for past results 82.9% · the book's price implies 71.4% · gap -1.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 26 Sep, 2:30 PM AEST
Darcy Wilmot
over 9.5 kicks
Kicks Over 9.5 -250 (1.40) · $100→$140
Value call
HIGHWins about 70 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$14.00 Odds-250
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Wilmot is Over 9.5 on Kicks.
On Kicks, our numbers say this bet wins about 70 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 70%, the price says 71%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 11, 11:26PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Kicks82.9%69.8%71.4%1.43+11.5%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions: Darcy Wilmot Over 9.5 Kicks (-250)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Darcy Wilmot needs to have over 9.5 kicks in the game tonight for this bet to win. He's been hitting the mark consistently, and our numbers show he is a strong favorite to get there. The Fremantle Dockers and Brisbane Lions matchup is expected to be competitive, which often means more chances for players to rack up stats like kicks. One thing to watch out for is that neither team has been particularly strong in gaining clearances lately. If the game gets tight, it could limit the overall number of kicks. Still, given how well Wilmot has been performing and the way the matchup is shaping up, he has a good chance to surpass that number.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Darcy Wilmot averaged 19.8 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.9 marks per game across 27 games in 2024.

19.8
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.9
Marks
1.7
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Darcy Wilmot has cleared 11.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o11.590%
o12.590%
o13.580%
o15.560%
o16.550%
o18.550%
o19.530%
o20.520%
o22.520%
o23.50%
o25.50%
o26.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Darcy Wilmot is averaging 16.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

16.6
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Darcy Wilmot recorded 15 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans15082
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats24080
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS9001
7 Sep 24Carlton21050
24 Aug 24Essendon26041
17 Aug 24Collingwood16030
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS16032
4 Aug 24St Kilda22052
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS27093
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans18061
Quick answers:How many disposals does Darcy Wilmot average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Fremantle Dockers Kicks 9.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Marks 4.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
12 Sep 26 Adelaide Crows @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 14.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Darcy Wilmot (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Wilmot is Over 9.5 on Kicks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.5% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 26 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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