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The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Wilmot is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 75%, versus the book's implied 74%, for a model edge of +0.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC
AFL

Darcy Wilmot

Brisbane Lions

+0.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 19.5 -286 (1.35)
+0.6% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 10:10AM
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Model Probability
74.6%
Implied Probability
74.1%
Model Edge
+0.6%
Predicted Value
22.8 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.6%—74.1%1.34+0.6%

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AI Analysis

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Darcy Wilmot (Brisbane Lions) Over 19.5 Disposals (-286)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to AFL betting, it's all about finding the edge, and Darcy Wilmot is our man for the 'Disposals Over' market against the West Coast Eagles. Wilmot has been a possession machine in his last five away games, averaging a stellar 27.2 disposals per match. His recent form is red hot, with a knack for finding the pill around the ground, especially against the Eagles, where he averages 21 disposals. With an impressive disposal efficiency of 80.5% and solid metrics across contested possessions, kicks, and intercepts, Wilmot is poised to meet and exceed the modest line of 19.5 disposals set by the bookies. With a current hit streak of 6 away games and 2 overall, backing Wilmot to go over 19.5 disposals is a smart play with a high probability of cashing in.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
19.4avg disposals recent
Season best27
Disposals last 10avg 19.4 · hi 27 · lo 9
1827221616262192415

Darcy Wilmot has a disposals high of 27 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 19.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Brisbane Lions @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 17.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
11 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 19.5 Over -172 ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Brisbane Lions @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Darcy Wilmot (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Wilmot is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.6% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles on Saturday 18 July at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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