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The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Wilmot is Over 18.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 81 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 81%, implied 75%, edge +5.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 12:50AM UTC
AFL

Darcy Wilmot

Brisbane Lions

+5.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 18.5 -303 (1.33) · $100→$133
+5.4% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 1 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
81 in 100
Predicted
22.8 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 80.6% · the book's price implies 75.2% · gap +5.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals80.6%—75.2%1.24+5.4%

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AI Analysis

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Darcy Wilmot (Brisbane Lions) Over 18.5 Disposals (-303)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Darcy Wilmot, the midfield maestro for the Brisbane Lions, is primed to shine against Carlton at Marvel Stadium. In his last 5 away clashes, Wilmot has been a ball magnet, averaging a hefty 24.8 disposals per game. His precise footwork and vision on the field have seen him maintain an impressive disposal efficiency of 81.0%. With an average of 18.8 kicks and 6 handballs per game in away fixtures, Wilmot is a pivotal link in the Lions' playmaking chain. Against Carlton specifically, he's been even more influential, averaging 19.5 disposals in their recent encounters. Wilmot's form is red hot, boasting a 7-game streak of hitting his disposal mark when playing away. Backed by his consistent performance and dominance in the midfield, the smart money leans towards Wilmot snagging Over 18.5 disposals in this clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Darcy Wilmot averaged 19.8 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.9 marks per game across 27 games in 2024.

19.8
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.9
Marks
1.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Darcy Wilmot recorded 15 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Sydney Swans15082
21 Sep 24Geelong Cats24080
14 Sep 24GWS GIANTS9001
7 Sep 24Carlton21050
24 Aug 24Essendon26041
17 Aug 24Collingwood16030
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS16032
4 Aug 24St Kilda22052
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS27093
21 Jul 24Sydney Swans18061
Quick answers:How many disposals does Darcy Wilmot average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 19.5 Over -213 ✓ HIT
26 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 18.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
26 Jul 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 16.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Darcy Wilmot (Brisbane Lions) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Wilmot is Over 18.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.4% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues on Saturday 1 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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